Yong Cai is associate professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Faculty Fellow at the Carolina Population Center. His research focuses on social demography, the sociology of health, Chinese society, comparative historical sociology, and research methodology.
Cai is the author of and contributor to numerous books, and has published over forty academic articles, essays, and book reviews. Cai has received various grants and fellowships over the years, including awards from the National Science Foundation of China (various years), the Chinese Ministry of Education (2012), and the Carolina Asia Center (2013). In addition, in 2011 Cai was a Visiting Scholar in the School of Social Development and Public Policy at Fudan University in Shanghai, China.
Cai is the book review editor of "Social Forces." Previously, Cai served as an elected council member of the Section on Asia and Asian America of the American Sociological Association (2009-2011).
Before coming to UNC-Chapel Hill in 2009, Cai was Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology, and Assistant Investigator at Institute for Public and International Affairs at the University of Utah. Cai received his Ph.D. in sociology and M.S. in statistics from the University of Washington. Cai also received a M.L in Sociology from the Peking University.
Areas of Expertise (5)
University of Washington: Ph.D., Sociology 2005
University of Washington: M.S., Statistics 2003
Peking University: M.L., Sociology 1996
Peking University: B.A., Sociology 1992
Media Appearances (5)
Asia Faces Fertility Crisis
U.S. News & World Report online
"The truth is that, before the relaxation of the one-child policy, there were substantial proportions of people [who] could and already had a second child, especially in the rural areas," said Yong Cai, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill...
China's Singles Day Is About Sexism and Shame
Addressing an army of singles in itself is fairly recent. Under Mao Zedong, couples were simply paired off by family or work units. As late as the 1980s, singles amounted to less than one percent of China's adult population, according to University of North Carolina sociologist Yong Cai. (By contrast they account for 50.2 percent in the U.S. today.)...
Researchers react to China’s two-child policy move
AAAS Science online
The announcement is “long overdue,” wrote Yong Cai, a demographer at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, in an email. “This is probably the easiest reform program that the Chinese Communist Party could push out—with virtually no political risk, but with enormous social benefits.”...
After Decades of Hard Work China’s Seniors Are Ready for Tourism
With U.N. data showing the number of Chinese over age 65 projected to almost double to 210 million people by 2030, the country’s retirement system will struggle to keep up, especially as China’s one-child policy limits the number of working-age people who can pay for the pensions and meager benefits of their elders, said Yong Cai, an assistant sociology professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill...
Senior travel booms in growing China, with Yangtze River among the most popular spots
With U.N. data showing the number of Chinese over age 65 projected to almost double to 210 million people by 2030, the country's retirement system will struggle to keep up, especially as China's one-child policy limits the number of working-age people who can pay for the pensions and meager benefits of their elders, said Yong Cai, an assistant sociology professor at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.
"It's very clear that the next 10 to 15 years down the road will not be so good for the pension system," Yong said. "Xi Jinping has been saying China has to deal with the new economic reality and part of this is a new demographic reality."...
Event Appearances (5)
Fertility Rationality among Chinese across the World
Conference on Low Fertility in China Fudan University, China
China’s Pension Reform: Will it Work?
First China-Sweden Workshop on Population Aging Lund University, Sweden
The GLF Famine in Skinnerian Regional Space
Historical Demography Workshop Shanghai, China
Changes in China’s Ethnic Population Distribution
Carolina Asia Center University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
China's New Demographic Reality
Center for Chinese Studies, University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles, CA.
Chinas controversial one-child policy continues to generate controversy and misinformation. This essay challenges several common myths: that Mao Zedong consistently opposed efforts to limit China's population growth; that consequently China's population continued to grow rapidly until after his death; that the launching of the one-child policy in 1980 led to a dramatic decline in China's fertility rate; and that the imposition of the policy prevented 400 million births. Evidence is presented contradicting each of these claims. Mao Zedong at times forcefully advocated strict limits on births and presided over a major switch to coercive birth planning after 1970; as much as three-quarters of the decline in fertility since 1970 occurred before the launching of the one-child policy; fertility levels fluctuated in China after the policy was launched; and most of the further decline in fertility since 1980 can be attributed to economic development, not coercive enforcement of birth limits.
China's current segmented pension system features regional imbalance, fiscal inefficiency, social inequality and economic unsustainability. It is a result of three-decade evolution guided by vague long-term objectives, constrained by economic and political circumstances and swayed by interest-group infighting. Expecting rapid population ageing and economic transformation, China aims to establish a national pension system that provides ‘wide coverage, basic security, multi-level options and sustainability’ by 2020. The paper reviews the history of China's pension system, examines proposed reform options and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by the reform.
China conducted its sixth modern census in 2010, recording a total of 1.34 billion people. This article presents an overview of the early census results. The data are of reasonable quality but contain some apparent defects where adjustments may be required. The census confirms that China has entered the era of demographic modernity and depicts the vast transformation of the country's rural-urban distribution. Life expectancy has risen by 3–4 years in the decade since the last census, while fertility remains well below replacement—probably as low as 1.5 births per woman—and the sex ratio at birth is still significantly elevated. Low fertility and falling old-age mortality are leading to continued and rapid population aging. Several coastal provinces grew by as much as 40 percent in the last decade, while a number of inland provinces have recorded population decline. China has reached an overall urban proportion of 50 percent.
China is in a race between its slowing down economic growth and accelerating population aging. Based on macro data from national accounts and micro data from national household surveys, we apply the National Transfer Account framework to examine recent changes in income and consumption at both the aggregate and individual levels and project the effect of population aging on economic profiles. Our findings show that recent rapid economic growth has resulted in a sizable lifecycle surplus, with labor income far exceeding consumption. With expected increases in consumption, as shown in the historical experience of Taiwan, and with accelerating population aging, however, this surplus is expected to be erased before 2035.