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Climate scientists now put the odds that the American Southwest is headed into a 30-year “mega drought” at 50/50. Meanwhile, the forecast for the Pacific Northwest is continued warming with slightly drier summers and even wetter winters.

However, 21,000 years ago, at the peak of the last Ice Age, a period known as the Last Glacial Maximum, the Southwest was wetter than it is today – much wetter – and the Northwest was drier – much drier.

A team of scientists from Vanderbilt and Stanford universities have created the first comprehensive map of the topsy-turvy climate of the period and are using it to test and improve the global climate models that have been developed to predict how precipitation patterns will change in the future. Their efforts are described in a paper published online on Feb. 23 by the journal Nature Geoscience.

One of the reasons that Oster and her colleagues picked this region to map is because the mid-latitudes, in general, and the western United States, in particular, are regions where the climate models tend to disagree on the magnitude and, in some cases, even the direction that precipitation patterns will change in the future.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, Canada was completely inundated by the massive Laurentide Ice Sheet. A number of the site-specific studies in the Northwest had provided evidence for a drier climate during the period, while similar studies in the Southwest found evidence for a wetter climate. For instance, a 1997 vegetation study from the University of Wisconsin found that much of the Northwest was covered by polar desert or tundra while the Southwest was covered by extensive conifer and broadleaf forest. However, there was also conflicting evidence of drier conditions at some sites in Utah and Colorado and of wetter conditions in Idaho and Montana.

“People hpthesized that the transition between the two climate zones raaaaaan long a straight east-west line, but that didn’t work very well,” said Oster. “Our study indicates that the transition zone is angled from the northwest to the southeast.” This explains the drier conditions in Utah and Colorado. Their analysis also found that the wetter sites in the north were situated next to large inland lakes that existed at the time, so they attribute them to local, lake effects.

Two basic theories have been advanced to explain the dramatically different rainfall patterns of this period:

One is that the cold air above the Laurentide Ice Sheet created a tremendous high pressure system that shifted the polar jet stream to the south, pushing the track followed by winter storms down into the Southwest, which had the effect of dramatically reducing the amount of rainfall in the Northwest while increasing it in the Southwest.
An alternative explanation is that the subtropical jet stream was enhanced, increasing the frequency with which the Southwest was hit by “Pineapple Expresses:” water-saturated subtropical plumes of air that periodically swing up from Hawaii and hit the West Coast and these days cause serious flooding. When combined with a strengthened summer monsoon, this could also explain the wetter conditions in the Southwest.

“According to these models, it is the high pressure cells that are really important in steering winter storms, and in determining the shape and location of the transition zone,” said Oster. “Some models do hint at an increase in subtropical winter moisture, but we don’t see evidence of an enhanced summer monsoon.”

Given the prospect of continued global warming, there is no chance that this ancient weather pattern will return in foreseeable future. Curiously, however, a similar pattern re-emerges periodically during the warm phase of the El Nińo–Southern Oscillation, which produces drier than normal winters in the Northwest and wetter than normal winters in the Southwest.

The research was supported by National Science Foundation grants AGS1203701 and EAR0921134.

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A cooler and wetter Southwest US-prehistoric climate change

What do Vanderbilt undergraduates do outside the classroom? Watch as our undergrads create solutions, create change, and create magic as part of Immersion Vanderbilt. Immersion Vanderbilt is an initiative in the Academic Strategic Plan aimed at creating even more opportunities to help students engage, question and forge change. 

Academic Strategic Plan  http://www.vanderbilt.edu/strategicplan 

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Creating Endless Possibilities Outside the Classroom

Watch video of Osher Lifelong Learning Institute’s winter term on February 12th, “Ancient Civilizations of the Americas” by Anna Guengerich, Ph.D., Anthropology.

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Ancient Civilizations of the Americas by Anna Guengerich 2.12..2015

Academics in Action! chronicles the research, teaching, and community engagement in the Dept. of Human and Organizational Development (HOD) at Peabody College on the Vanderbilt University campus. Interviews with administrators, faculty, students, and community partners reflect the multidisciplinary, mixed methodological efforts in HOD informed by John Dewey and social justice tenets. The film parallels the companion book by the same name. In addition to the documentary, 14 separate videos are available for the various project participants. Academics in Action! presents one model for transformative work in the areas of education and human development.

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Academics in Action: Student Montage

Academics in Action: Kimberly Bess and Robin Vanderweele (Marth O'Bryan Center)

Academics in Action: Hardison School

Academics in Action: Doug Perkins

Academics in Action: Gina Friedan

Georgene Troseth, associate professor of psychology at Vanderbilt’s Peabody College of education and human development and graduate fellow Colleen Russo, who conducts research with Troseth and their colleagues selected a few of their favorite children’s education apps for a variety of age groups.
They do not officially endorse any particular app and advise parents to choose wisely based on their child’s needs.
 
Reading and writing
Endless Alphabet (ages 3 and up)
Kids will have fun learning their ABCs and building vocabulary with the adorable monsters in Endless Alphabet. 
 
Nosy Crow eBooks (ages 3 and up)
Nosy Crow eBooks offer a wide variety of both fiction and nonfiction interactive reading opportunities for children of all ages. 
 
AlphaTots (ages 3 and up)
AlphaTots is a good resource for children just learning the alphabet. 
 
Another Monster at the End of This Book! (ages 3 and up)
This interactive eBook begs players not to turn the page in order to keep Grover and Elmo from running into the monster at the end. 
 
Elmo Loves ABCs (ages 3 and up)
Players learn the alphabet by tracing letters, watching video clips, coloring, playing hide and seek, working puzzles, singing songs and more.
 
Learn with Homer (ages 3-6)
A beautiful map on the main page draws the child into the world of reading. 
 
Don’t Let The Pigeon Run This App! (ages 5 and up)
Based on the popular book series, children can either listen to a brand new story each time or create their own story by selecting multiple-choice options or speaking into a microphone in a “Mad Libs” format.
 
Book Creator (ages 8 and up)
Tapping into design skills and creativity, the child chooses images, places text and selects backgrounds for assembling their own book.
 
Math
Eddy’s Number Party! (age 4)
This counting game asks the player to help make Eddy the Dog’s birthday party special. 
 
Gracie and Friends (ages 4 and up)
Gracie and Friends is a series of eight math-focused apps and curricula funded by the National Science Foundation. 
 
DragonBox Algebra 5+ (ages 5 and up)
DragonBox is an effective way to sneak algebra into play without labeling the problems as “math.” 
 
Slice Fractions (ages 6-8)
Children learn about fractions by slicing through lava and ice as they take an animated wooly mammoth through different levels of the game. 
 
Motion Math: Pizza! (ages 9-11)
Problem-solving and math games are intertwined and part of the fun, as the player is responsible for their own pizzeria, from purchasing ingredients to running the store. 
 
Computer programming and problem-solving
Kodable (ages 5 and up)
Kodable introduces children to the basics of computer programming through the FuzzFamily, who have crashed their spaceship on Smeeborg. 
 
Move the Turtle (ages 9-11)
In this game, children move a turtle to collect a diamond by coding its location. Players are introduced to basic computer programming terms such as procedures, variables and conditional instructions.
 
Preparing for kindergarten
Busy Shapes (age 2)
Based on Piaget’s sensorimotor stage of development, the game starts with a hole and an object. 
 
Cookie Monster��s Challenge (age 3)
This game encourages a child to develop their non-academic school readiness skills. The player helps Cookie Monster eat all his cookies while working on skills like self-control and following directions.
 
Beck and Bo (age 3)
This beautifully illustrated game follows a brother and sister through everyday life. Players drag and drop objects and characters to create new scenes. Creativity and logic are employed to understand cause and effect.

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Vanderbilt Experts Choose Favorite Children's Educational Apps

Watch video of Vanderbilt Divinity School Field Education Program Overview with Viki Matson.

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Vanderbilt Divinity School Field Education

Lisa Fazio, associate professor of psychology and human development, is available for commentary on YouTube's ban on vaccine misinformation. 

Lisa is an expert in misinformation and false news, studying how people learn, interpret and remember information. She can speak to YouTube's history as a vector for misinformation and other points related to the topic, including:
The importance of finding trusted sources and how it's even harder than normal to tell what is a reliable source, especially as so many personal accounts are floating around Misinformation and mixed messages sent from politicians and government officials on vaccine implications The dangers of so many "experts" talking publicly about vaccines, particularly around the periphery of their expertise and the damage that has been done, particularly during the pandemic  

Misinformation expert on YouTube ban on false information on vaccines

Lisa Fazio