Don A. Moore 
Professor | Associate Dean for Academic Affairs | Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication | Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA, UNITED STATES
Researcher of confidence and overconfidence, with a focus on forecasting, judgment, and decision making
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Areas of Expertise (4)
Ethical Choice
Decision-Making
Overconfidence
Negotiation
About
Don Moore is the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at Berkeley Haas and serves as Associate Dean for Academic Affairs. He received his PhD in Organization Behavior from Northwestern University. His research interests include overconfidence—including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.
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Education (3)
Northwestern University: PhD, Organization Behavior 2000
Northwestern University: MS, Organization Behavior 1998
Carleton College: BA Magna Cum Laude, Psychology 1993
Links (8)
Honors & Awards (7)
Barbara and Gerson Bakar Faculty Fellow
2011– 2014
Best Paper Award
Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management 2011
IARPA Research Grant
Awarded for grant for: Exploring the Optimal Forecasting Frontier with B. Mellers and P. Tetlock 2011 – 2015
Cummings Scholar Award
Awarded from the Academy of Management, recognizing “significant scholarly achievement during the early- to mid-career stage” 2007
Best Paper Award, Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management
2007
Weil Prize (CMU)
Awarded for the paper “Bayesian overconfidence” with Paul J. Healy 2007
National Science Foundation
Research grant for: Correspondence Bias in Performance Appraisal: Why Selecting an Easy Task is a Recipe for Success with Francesca Gino, Zachariah Sharek, and Samuel Swift 2007 – 2009
Selected External Service & Affiliations (6)
- Editorial Board of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Psychological Science (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Judgment and Decision Making (2012 – present)
- Editorial Board of Administrative Science Quarterly (2009 -2013)
- Editorial Board of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2007 – 2009)
- Editorial Board of Organization Science (2007 – 2010)
Positions Held (1)
At Haas since 2010
2021 – present, Associate Dean for Academic Affairs 2016 – present, Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business 2010 – 2016, Associate Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business Courtesy appointment in the Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley 2015 – present, Faculty Director, Xlab 2000 – 2010, Assistant to Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University
Media Appearances (15)
"‘Something Rotten’ — Are Auditors Too Cozy With Boards?"
Financial Times online
2021-03-05
"This case seems to me to be diagnostic of a much deeper problem,” says Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs.
A germophobe's guide to calculating Thanksgiving risk
San Francisco Chronicle online
2020-11-18
While it's not possible to predict the future, it's possible to use available information forecast probable outcomes, writes Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, in this op-ed.
Confidence Doesn’t Always Boost Performance
Harvard Business Review online
2020-11-01
Research by Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, shows that confidence doesn't always help people perform better. "People who were told that they would perform well and felt positively about how they’d do fared no better than those who were told that they would get most of the answers wrong and were worried about it," he said of his research results.
Election Polls Are Only 60 Percent Accurate, Which Is 0 Percent Surprising.
California Magazine online
2020-10-30
“He got some flack for his forecasts that Hillary would win with 70 percent probability,” says Moore. “Should we be outraged that an outcome occurred, Trump winning the election, that Silver only gave a 30 percent probability? No, things with 30 percent probability happen all the time. If you think there’s a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow, there’s a good chance you’re gonna bring your umbrella.”
Here’s why some are too optimistic about the pandemic
Marketplace online
2020-10-15
According to Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, "salience bias" may be affecting how we think of the pandemic.
The Truth about Confidence: 4 Steps to Calibrate Self-Perception
Inverse online
2020-10-03
According to Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication and author of the recent book Perfectly Confident, conventional wisdom around confidence is often flat-out wrong.
How Imposter Syndrome Might Be Holding Your Business Back — And How to Tackle It
U.S. Chamber of Commerce News online
2020-09-21
Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, cautions against comparing yourself to the best of the best when you should be comparing yourself to people who are "good enough" at whatever you're doing. "
Confidence: How it can help us
BBC World Service online
2020-08-23
Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, said underconfidence is a real problem, "and there are circumstances in which people sabotage their own chances for success. Each of us has enormous untapped potential."
Why Job Interviews Are BS (and Racist)
The Startup online
2020-07-18
According to Don Moore from the Haas School of Business, the poor ability of interviews to assess future job performance is “one of the best-established findings in the field of organizational and industrial psychology.”
A Champion Poker Player on How to Make Better Decisions
Advisor Perspectives online
2020-07-14
She recently was interviewed in a live YouTube session by Don Moore, who studies overconfidence and is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.
The weird psychological effect of a no-deal Brexit deadline
WIRED UK online
2020-07-07
“In the absence of a deadline or delay that is costly, there's a temptation to hold out a little bit longer, or gather a little bit more information,” says Don Moore, a professor at Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, who studies the psychology of confidence with a focus on decision-making and negotiations.
Risky Business: Calibrating confidence when making decisions
Philadelphia Inquirer online
2020-05-31
In this op-ed, Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, talks about the the risks of underconfidence and overconfidence. Both are errors, he says, and the only cure is accurate information.
Creative genius isn't enough: Pitching your innovative idea
The Entrepreneur Fund online
2020-05-25
“If you overestimate your abilities, you’re on thin ice,” said Don A. Moore, a professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. “But some innovators are under-confident and so focused on the limitations of their idea, and so conscious of overselling things, that they don’t present with enough enthusiasm.”
Op-Ed: Trump’s overconfidence has always been dangerous. With coronavirus, it’s deadly
Los Angeles Times online
2020-03-26
Understanding the limits of confidence is key to overcoming this pandemic — and the next. Research on confidence has documented the dangers of being too confident. Overconfident people fail to plan for threats, such as COVID-19. Overconfident leaders make mistakes that put others at risk. Yet my research also shows that people routinely elevate leaders who express greater confidence than is warranted.
This Is The Secret Ingredient For Small Business Success
Forbes online
2020-02-18
According to UC Berkeley-Haas management professor Don A. Moore, there is a reason these small business owners tend to downplay their performance. “Having studied the effects that confidence levels have on decision-making for over 20 years, I’ve found entrepreneurs are often overconfident,” Moore said.
Selected Papers & Publications (6)
Overconfidence across cultures
CollabraDon A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, and Ekaterina Y. Goncharova
2018
Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: GeneralDon A. Moore, Jennifer M. Logg, and Uriel Haran
2018
Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyDon Moore, Cameron Anderson, Elizabeth Tenney, Nathan Meikle, and David Hunsaker
2018
Many labs 5: Registered multisite replication of tempting-fate effects in Gilovich and Risen (2008)
Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (2008)Mathur, M. B., et al.
2008
The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding
Judgment and Decision MakingDon A. Moore, Leif D. Nelson, and Hannah Perfecto
2018
Teaching (2)
Leading People
MBA 205
Executive Decision Making
Executive Decision Making
Social