Don A. Moore 
Professor | Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication | Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA, UNITED STATES
Researcher of confidence and overconfidence, with a focus on forecasting, judgment, and decision making
Spotlight
Areas of Expertise (4)
Ethical Choice
Decision-Making
Overconfidence
Negotiation
About
Don Moore is the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at Berkeley Haas. He received his PhD in Organization Behavior from Northwestern University. His research interests include overconfidence—including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.
Multimedia
Publications:
Documents:
Photos:
Videos:
Audio:
Education (3)
Northwestern University: PhD, Organization Behavior 2000
Northwestern University: MS, Organization Behavior 1998
Carleton College: BA Magna Cum Laude, Psychology 1993
Links (8)
Honors & Awards (7)
Barbara and Gerson Bakar Faculty Fellow
2011– 2014
Best Paper Award
Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management 2011
IARPA Research Grant
Awarded for grant for: Exploring the Optimal Forecasting Frontier with B. Mellers and P. Tetlock 2011 – 2015
Cummings Scholar Award
Awarded from the Academy of Management, recognizing “significant scholarly achievement during the early- to mid-career stage” 2007
Best Paper Award, Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management
2007
Weil Prize (CMU)
Awarded for the paper “Bayesian overconfidence” with Paul J. Healy 2007
National Science Foundation
Research grant for: Correspondence Bias in Performance Appraisal: Why Selecting an Easy Task is a Recipe for Success with Francesca Gino, Zachariah Sharek, and Samuel Swift 2007 – 2009
Selected External Service & Affiliations (6)
- Editorial Board of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Psychological Science (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Judgment and Decision Making (2012 – present)
- Editorial Board of Administrative Science Quarterly (2009 -2013)
- Editorial Board of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2007 – 2009)
- Editorial Board of Organization Science (2007 – 2010)
Positions Held (1)
At Haas since 2010
2016 – present, Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business 2010 – 2016, Associate Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business Courtesy appointment in the Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley 2015 – present, Faculty Director, Xlab 2000 – 2010, Assistant to Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University
Media Appearances (15)
Why Job Interviews Are BS (and Racist)
The Startup online
2020-07-18
According to Don Moore from the Haas School of Business, the poor ability of interviews to assess future job performance is “one of the best-established findings in the field of organizational and industrial psychology.”
A Champion Poker Player on How to Make Better Decisions
Advisor Perspectives online
2020-07-14
She recently was interviewed in a live YouTube session by Don Moore, who studies overconfidence and is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.
The weird psychological effect of a no-deal Brexit deadline
WIRED UK online
2020-07-07
“In the absence of a deadline or delay that is costly, there's a temptation to hold out a little bit longer, or gather a little bit more information,” says Don Moore, a professor at Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, who studies the psychology of confidence with a focus on decision-making and negotiations.
Risky Business: Calibrating confidence when making decisions
Philadelphia Inquirer online
2020-05-31
In this op-ed, Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, talks about the the risks of underconfidence and overconfidence. Both are errors, he says, and the only cure is accurate information.
Creative genius isn't enough: Pitching your innovative idea
The Entrepreneur Fund online
2020-05-25
“If you overestimate your abilities, you’re on thin ice,” said Don A. Moore, a professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. “But some innovators are under-confident and so focused on the limitations of their idea, and so conscious of overselling things, that they don’t present with enough enthusiasm.”
Op-Ed: Trump’s overconfidence has always been dangerous. With coronavirus, it’s deadly
Los Angeles Times
2020-03-26
Understanding the limits of confidence is key to overcoming this pandemic — and the next. Research on confidence has documented the dangers of being too confident. Overconfident people fail to plan for threats, such as COVID-19. Overconfident leaders make mistakes that put others at risk. Yet my research also shows that people routinely elevate leaders who express greater confidence than is warranted.
This Is The Secret Ingredient For Small Business Success
Forbes online
2020-02-18
According to UC Berkeley-Haas management professor Don A. Moore, there is a reason these small business owners tend to downplay their performance. “Having studied the effects that confidence levels have on decision-making for over 20 years, I’ve found entrepreneurs are often overconfident,” Moore said.
The Endless, Invisible Persuasion Tactics of the Internet
The Atlantic online
2019-08-02
As shoppers and denizens of the net, we tend to overestimate our own ability to be rational and controlled in the face of of online nudges and "dark patterns." "It’s common for people to say, ‘Oh, I meant to do that,’ when in fact they were manipulated," said Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication. But he adds that nudges can be pro-social as well, like reminding people to register to vote.
How to spot a narcissist
BBC World Service Business Daily online
2018-07-30
All offices have self-absorbed people, but Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, says that while self confidence is fine, overconfidence destroys businesses and politics.
No one needs paper piles; SEC should get smart about broker disclosure
Wall Street Journal online
2018-07-27
Requiring advisers to disclose their conflicts can also backfire, according to work by Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication. When an adviser discloses a conflict, investors may conclude he is being candid, paradoxically leading them to trust him more.
Elon Musk’s “pedo guy” cave tweet could hurt Tesla
San Francisco Chronicle online
2018-07-16
Power often loosens inhibitions, according to Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication. “How he keeps track of anything in his life is beyond me,” Moore said — so it’s hardly surprising that he makes mistakes along the way.
Three Ways Overconfidence Can Sink Your Ship
Forbes online
2017-08-15
A forthcoming review from the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, examines what professor Don Moore and Derek Schatz define as the “three faces” of overconfidence.
The negative side of positive thinking
The Harvard Gazette online
2017-08-04
The studies were published in Psychological Science and were conducted by Rogers and Don A. Moore of the UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and Michael I. Norton of Harvard Business School (HBS). The research was supported by the Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership and HBS.
Trump's a terrible deal-maker — just look at the past 100 days
Business Insider online
2017-04-30
All these missteps can be traced back to Trump's fatal flaw as a negotiator: his narcissism. "Negotiators get themselves in trouble when they're blind to the perspective of other parties," says Don Moore, a professor of management at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, who has been writing about Trump's negotiation style since the start of his campaign.
The Era of Overconfident CEOs Is Waning
The Wall Street Journal online
2017-03-07
Of the many overconfident leaders Bill Treasurer has coached in his career, one stands out.
Selected Papers & Publications (6)
Overconfidence across cultures
CollabraDon A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, and Ekaterina Y. Goncharova
2018
Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: GeneralDon A. Moore, Jennifer M. Logg, and Uriel Haran
2018
Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence
Journal of Personality and Social PsychologyDon Moore, Cameron Anderson, Elizabeth Tenney, Nathan Meikle, and David Hunsaker
2018
Many labs 5: Registered multisite replication of tempting-fate effects in Gilovich and Risen (2008)
Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (2008)Mathur, M. B., et al.
2008
The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding
Judgment and Decision MakingDon A. Moore, Leif D. Nelson, and Hannah Perfecto
2018
Teaching (2)
Leading People
MBA 205
Executive Decision Making
Executive Decision Making
Social