Areas of Expertise (4)
Don Moore is the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication at Berkeley Haas and serves as Associate Dean for Academic Affairs. He received his PhD in Organization Behavior from Northwestern University. His research interests include overconfidence—including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth. He is only occasionally overconfident.
Northwestern University: PhD, Organization Behavior 2000
Northwestern University: MS, Organization Behavior 1998
Carleton College: BA Magna Cum Laude, Psychology 1993
Honors & Awards (7)
Barbara and Gerson Bakar Faculty Fellow
Best Paper Award
Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management 2011
IARPA Research Grant
Awarded for grant for: Exploring the Optimal Forecasting Frontier with B. Mellers and P. Tetlock 2011 – 2015
Cummings Scholar Award
Awarded from the Academy of Management, recognizing “significant scholarly achievement during the early- to mid-career stage” 2007
Best Paper Award, Managerial and Organizational Cognition Division of the Academy of Management
Weil Prize (CMU)
Awarded for the paper “Bayesian overconfidence” with Paul J. Healy 2007
National Science Foundation
Research grant for: Correspondence Bias in Performance Appraisal: Why Selecting an Easy Task is a Recipe for Success with Francesca Gino, Zachariah Sharek, and Samuel Swift 2007 – 2009
Selected External Service & Affiliations (6)
- Editorial Board of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Psychological Science (2015 – present)
- Editorial Board of Judgment and Decision Making (2012 – present)
- Editorial Board of Administrative Science Quarterly (2009 -2013)
- Editorial Board of Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2007 – 2009)
- Editorial Board of Organization Science (2007 – 2010)
Positions Held (1)
At Haas since 2010
2021 – present, Associate Dean for Academic Affairs 2016 – present, Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business 2010 – 2016, Associate Professor, Management of Organizations Group, Haas School of Business Courtesy appointment in the Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley 2015 – present, Faculty Director, Xlab 2000 – 2010, Assistant to Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University
Media Appearances (15)
"‘Something Rotten’ — Are Auditors Too Cozy With Boards?"
Financial Times online
"This case seems to me to be diagnostic of a much deeper problem,” says Prof. Don Moore, Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs.
A germophobe's guide to calculating Thanksgiving risk
San Francisco Chronicle online
While it's not possible to predict the future, it's possible to use available information forecast probable outcomes, writes Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, in this op-ed.
Confidence Doesn’t Always Boost Performance
Harvard Business Review online
Research by Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, shows that confidence doesn't always help people perform better. "People who were told that they would perform well and felt positively about how they’d do fared no better than those who were told that they would get most of the answers wrong and were worried about it," he said of his research results.
Election Polls Are Only 60 Percent Accurate, Which Is 0 Percent Surprising.
California Magazine online
“He got some flack for his forecasts that Hillary would win with 70 percent probability,” says Moore. “Should we be outraged that an outcome occurred, Trump winning the election, that Silver only gave a 30 percent probability? No, things with 30 percent probability happen all the time. If you think there’s a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow, there’s a good chance you’re gonna bring your umbrella.”
Here’s why some are too optimistic about the pandemic
According to Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, "salience bias" may be affecting how we think of the pandemic.
The Truth about Confidence: 4 Steps to Calibrate Self-Perception
According to Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication and author of the recent book Perfectly Confident, conventional wisdom around confidence is often flat-out wrong.
How Imposter Syndrome Might Be Holding Your Business Back — And How to Tackle It
U.S. Chamber of Commerce News online
Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, cautions against comparing yourself to the best of the best when you should be comparing yourself to people who are "good enough" at whatever you're doing. "
Confidence: How it can help us
BBC World Service online
Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, said underconfidence is a real problem, "and there are circumstances in which people sabotage their own chances for success. Each of us has enormous untapped potential."
Why Job Interviews Are BS (and Racist)
The Startup online
According to Don Moore from the Haas School of Business, the poor ability of interviews to assess future job performance is “one of the best-established findings in the field of organizational and industrial psychology.”
A Champion Poker Player on How to Make Better Decisions
Advisor Perspectives online
She recently was interviewed in a live YouTube session by Don Moore, who studies overconfidence and is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.
The weird psychological effect of a no-deal Brexit deadline
WIRED UK online
“In the absence of a deadline or delay that is costly, there's a temptation to hold out a little bit longer, or gather a little bit more information,” says Don Moore, a professor at Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, who studies the psychology of confidence with a focus on decision-making and negotiations.
Risky Business: Calibrating confidence when making decisions
Philadelphia Inquirer online
In this op-ed, Prof. Don Moore, the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership and Communication, talks about the the risks of underconfidence and overconfidence. Both are errors, he says, and the only cure is accurate information.
Creative genius isn't enough: Pitching your innovative idea
The Entrepreneur Fund online
“If you overestimate your abilities, you’re on thin ice,” said Don A. Moore, a professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. “But some innovators are under-confident and so focused on the limitations of their idea, and so conscious of overselling things, that they don’t present with enough enthusiasm.”
Op-Ed: Trump’s overconfidence has always been dangerous. With coronavirus, it’s deadly
Los Angeles Times
Understanding the limits of confidence is key to overcoming this pandemic — and the next. Research on confidence has documented the dangers of being too confident. Overconfident people fail to plan for threats, such as COVID-19. Overconfident leaders make mistakes that put others at risk. Yet my research also shows that people routinely elevate leaders who express greater confidence than is warranted.
This Is The Secret Ingredient For Small Business Success
According to UC Berkeley-Haas management professor Don A. Moore, there is a reason these small business owners tend to downplay their performance. “Having studied the effects that confidence levels have on decision-making for over 20 years, I’ve found entrepreneurs are often overconfident,” Moore said.
Selected Papers & Publications (6)
Overconfidence across culturesCollabra
Don A. Moore, Amelia S. Dev, and Ekaterina Y. Goncharova
Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence.Journal of Experimental Psychology: General
Don A. Moore, Jennifer M. Logg, and Uriel Haran
Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidenceJournal of Personality and Social Psychology
Don Moore, Cameron Anderson, Elizabeth Tenney, Nathan Meikle, and David Hunsaker
Many labs 5: Registered multisite replication of tempting-fate effects in Gilovich and Risen (2008)Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (2008)
Mathur, M. B., et al.
The category size bias: A mere misunderstandingJudgment and Decision Making
Don A. Moore, Leif D. Nelson, and Hannah Perfecto
Redefine statistical significanceNature Human Behavior
Benjamin, D. J. et al.
Executive Decision Making
Executive Decision Making