George Alessandria

Areas of Expertise (3)

International Trade

Macro Economics

International Finance

Biography

George Alessandria joined the Department of Economics at the University of Rochester in 2014. He received a BA in mathematics and economics from Duke University, and an MA and PhD in economics from the University of Pennsylvania. Prior to joining the University of Rochester, he was a senior economic advisor and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. His research interests are in macroeconomics and international trade. In his use of dynamic models to study trade flows, George and his peers pioneered a new approach to the field of international trade that allows us to understand the effects of business cycles on trade. Through a microeconomic analysis of the behavior of firms, George’s work has given insight into what were long-standing puzzles concerning the slow response of trade patterns to economic volatility. He has published in journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He has served as an associate editor at some of the most prestigious journals in economics.

Education (3)

University of Pennsylvania: PhD, Economics 2000

University of Pennsylvania: MA, Economics 1996

Duke University: BA, Economics and Mathematics 1992

Selected Media Appearances (2)

Trump wants to whack Chinese firms. How badly could he hurt them?

The Economist  print

2024-02-22

If he wins in November, Donald Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war he started in 2018 by imposing tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. His allies have also advocated repealing normal trading relations with China, which became “permanent” in 2000. A new paper by George Alessandria of the University of Rochester and four co-authors suggests that the way exporters responded to the Reagan threat may hold lessons for new trade wars.

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Expect another year of supply chain issues

University of Rochester  online

2022-06-27

George Alessandra, an expert in international trade, explains how supply chain issues continue to reverberate through the American and global economies.

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Selected Articles (1)

Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

National Bureau of Economic Research

George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Kim Ruhl, and Joseph Steinberg

2024-02-01

Alessandria and his co-authors found (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Their findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.

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Answers (2)

What role (if any) does President Biden’s decision in July to end his presidential re-election campaign have on the economic conflict between the US and China?

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Changing candidates probably doesn’t change the Democratic Party’s approach on trade policy, but it would be worthwhile to hear about this issue from the candidates in the lead-up to the election. I don’t think the outlook on trade policy changes much with Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, although it would be good for the candidates to discuss these issues. Our economic model recovers estimates of switching between trade war and trade peace from the actions of the firms most affected by these tariffs. These firms probably thought there was a chance that Harris could be president when making their decisions. It would be good for Harris and Trump to debate this issue.

How long do you think the current trade war between the U.S. and China will last?

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Based on the way firms have been changing suppliers, our model predicts there is a less than 20 percent chance the trade war is over by 2025. Our model estimates that the US-China trade war has a 17 percent chance of ending in 2025, so it will most likely last at least four or five more years. Of course, there’s always a chance that something will break this logjam. It was a big surprise in 1971 when Nixon lifted a 21-year trade embargo on China. Nixon was attempting to get us out of the Vietnam War, and he was hoping the Chinese, who were supporting the Vietnamese, could put some backroom pressure on Vietnam. But it’s not clear what factors exist today that could pull us out of the current trade war.