Gretchen Helmke

The Thomas H. Jackson Distinguished University Professor of Political Science University of Rochester

  • Rochester NY

Professor Helmke's research focuses on democratic political institutions, rule of law, and Latin American politics.

Contact

University of Rochester

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Areas of Expertise

Bright Line Watch
Latin American Politics
Democratic Political Institutions
Rule of Law
Institutional crises in Latin America

Social

Biography

Professor Helmke's research focuses on democratic political institutions, rule of law, and Latin American politics. Her most recent book, Institutions on the Edge: The Origins and Consequences of Institutional Instability in Latin America (Cambridge University Press, 2017), shows that concentrating power in the presidency triggers political crises across all three branches of government. Helmke has published three additional books, Courts in Latin America, co-edited with Julio Rios-Figueroa (Cambridge University Press, 2011), Courts Under Constraints: Judges, Generals, and Presidents in Argentina (Cambridge University Press, 2005), and Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons from Latin America (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), co-edited with Steven Levitsky. Her articles have appeared in American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Comparative Politics, Desarollo Economico, Annual Review of Political Science, Electoral Studies, Perspectives on Politics, American Journal of Political Science, and Quarterly Journal of Political Science. Her research has been funded by the NSF, the SSRC, Democracy Fund, and the Hewlett Foundation. She is one of the co-founders of Bright Line Watch, a non-profit organization that brings together leading political scientists to monitor democratic practices in the United States from a comparative perspective.

She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago in 2000, and holds a B.A. (1993) and an M.A. (1994) in Political Science, both from the University of California at Berkeley. In the past, Helmke was a Visiting Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame, a Harvard Academy Scholar at the Weatherhead Center for International and Area Studies at Harvard University, and a Visiting Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. She arrived at the University of Rochester in 2002, and served as the Chair of the Political Science Department from 2011 to 2016.

Education

University of Chicago

Ph.D.

Political Science

2000

University of California at Berkeley

M.A.

Political Science

1994

University of California at Berkeley

B.A.

Political Science

1993

Affiliations

  • Bright Line Watch : Co-Founder

Selected Media Appearances

Gretchen Helmke named Guggenheim Fellow for political science

University of Rochester  online

2025-04-17

Gretchen Helmke, a University of Rochester political science professor whose research focuses on the rule of law and democratic erosion in the United States and Latin America, has been named a Guggenheim Fellow for 2025.

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We used to simply disagree. Now we don’t agree on facts

Seattle Times  online

2025-04-07

Since the Covid pandemic began five years ago, the US has gone from being merely polarized to split into two separate and incompatible realities. Worse, according to a recently released survey, we lack a “common understanding of facts.” So much for the new normal.

Your reality depends on whether you identify with the political right or left. In its study, Bright Line Watch asked political scientists, experts in online misinformation and members of the general public to rate the country’s performance on 31 different democratic principles, from fair elections to free speech. A shared understanding of the facts ranked last among the respondents, which included Democrats and Republicans.

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• ‘Fear-mongering’ or emergency? As Trump flexes executive power, here’s what to know about constitutional crises.

Boston Globe  print

2025-03-31

Bright Line Watch, a group of researchers that has tracked the state of American democracy, did a survey of both political experts and average Americans and found both groups felt the stability of American democracy had hit its lowest point since they began surveying in 2017.

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Research Grants

Grant for Bright Line Watch

Democracy Fund

Co-PIs: John Carey, Brendan Nyhan, and Susan Stokes, March 2017 – April 2019

Grant for Bright Line Watch

William & Flora Hewlett Foundation

Co-PIs: John Carey, Brendan Nyhan, and Susan Stokes, March 2017 – February 2018

“Collaborative Research A Cross-National Study of Judicial Institutionalization and Influence

National Science Foundation

April 2008-April 2010, #SES0751340

Selected Articles

Searching for a Bright Line: The First Year of the Trump Presidency

SSRN

John M Carey, Gretchen Helmke, Brendan Nyhan, Mitchell Sanders, Susan C Stokes

2018

Is American democracy under threat? The question is more prominent in political debate now than at any time in recent memory. Yet there is also widespread recognition that democracy is multifaceted and that backsliding, when it occurs, tends to be piecemeal. We provide original data from surveys of political science experts and of the general public, conducted during the first year of the Trump presidency, on democratic priorities and on assessments of democratic performance. We draw on a theory of how politicians may transgress limits on their authority, and under what conditions constraints are self-enforcing. We connect the theory to our survey data in an effort to identify potential areas of agreement on democratic principles and whether they have been violated. We find that there is substantial agreement about democratic priorities, but that polarization between Trump supporters and opponents presents a serious obstacle to any social consensus regarding violations.

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The Puzzle of Purges: Presidential Instability and Judicial Manipulation in Latin America

Defending Human Rights in Times of Constitutional Crises

Gretchen Helmke

2017

This paper develops a new strategic theory of judicial manipulation. In contrast to standard insulation accounts, I argue that uncertainty about remaining in power leads politicians to violate judicial independence, not shore it up. Following this survivalist logic, the paper proposes and tests three hypotheses using a novel dataset on judicial crises across eighteen Latin American countries between 1985 and 2008. I show that variation in judicial crises is systematically related to the president’s risk of instability as captured by presidential powers, timing within the presidential term, and the history of past presidential instability. The conclusion explores the broader implications of my argument for institutional instability and democratic backsliding.

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From Power Gaps to Instability Traps: Reflections on Institutional Instability in Latin America

Institutional Weakness in Latin America Conference

Gretchen Helmke

2016

Latin America and political instability have long been synonymous. Although the specter of military coups largely receded during the 1980s, political crises, like the one currently battering Brazil’s political class and resulting in the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff this April, continue to plague the region. Excluding Haiti, if Rousseff loses the impeachment battle that is looming over her country, she will be the 18th elected president in the region since 1985—and the second Brazilian President since Fernando Collor de Mello resigned under threat of impeachment in 1992—forced to leave office through means other than the ballot box.

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