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Gustavo S. Cortes - University of Florida. Gainesville, FL, US

Gustavo S. Cortes

Assistant Professor | University of Florida

Gainesville, FL, UNITED STATES

Gustavo S. Cortes researches macro-finance, financial intermediation, international finance and financial history.


Gustavo S. Cortes is an assistant professor of finance in the Warrington College of Business. He researches macro-finance, financial intermediation, international finance and financial history.

Areas of Expertise (4)

Financial History

Financial Intermediation

Macro Finance

International Finance

Media Appearances (4)

UF expert on recessions explains the GDP decline

WCJB TV20 News  tv


U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank for the second quarter in a row marking the beginning of a recession, however, an expert at the University of Florida explains the economic situation is mixed. The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual according to numbers released by the commerce department on Thursday.

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Opinion: Why gold and platinum are a window into the stock market’s future and what investors can expect

Market Watch  online


The stock market’s prospects for the next 12 months are only modestly positive. That’s the conclusion of a market-timing model based on the ratio of gold’s price GC00, -0.29% to platinum’s PL00, 0.93%.

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Why the US stock market is less volatile during wars

Money Control  online


Why, despite the war in Ukraine having ratcheted up economic uncertainty severely, are the equity markets relatively calm? The CBOE Volatility Index, for instance, is not particularly elevated. This is not the first time that this has happened.

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Market calm shows that wartime doesn’t mean volatility

Financial Times  online


War is cruel. In their own way, so are markets. When Russia invaded Ukraine last month, global stock markets initially tumbled amid investor shock.

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Articles (3)

Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID-19 crises

Journal of International Money and Finance

Gustavo S. Cortes, et al.


We compare the interventions conducted by the Federal Reserve in response to the subprime and COVID–19 crises with respect to their effectiveness in reducing disaster risk. Using model-free measures of disaster risk derived from daily options data, we document that interventions in response to both crises reduced tail risks in domestic equity markets. The spillover effects of the two crises have been markedly dissimilar.

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Financial factors and the propagation of the Great Depression

Journal of Financial Economics

Gustavo S. Cortes, et al.


We investigate the role of forward-looking financial factors in propagating the Great Depression. We find that a new hand-collected bank stock index is better at predicting the onset of the Great Depression than the aggregate stock market or failed bank deposits. The bank stock index explains almost one-third of the fluctuations in industrial production after five years. Analysis disaggregated at each Federal Reserve district shows that bank stocks capture forward-looking information about debt defaults and credit.

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Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Murillo Campello, et al.


We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum had multi-faceted consequences for corporate America, shaping employment, investment, divestitures, R&D, and savings. The unexpected vote outcome led US firms to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the reversibility of capital and labor. American-based job destruction was particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers.

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