Gustavo S. Cortes is an assistant professor of finance in the Warrington College of Business. He researches macro-finance, financial intermediation, international finance and financial history.
Areas of Expertise (4)
Media Appearances (7)
Opinion: Why gold and platinum are a window into the stock market’s future and what investors can expect
Market Watch online
The stock market’s prospects for the next 12 months are only modestly positive. That’s the conclusion of a market-timing model based on the ratio of gold’s price GC00, -0.29% to platinum’s PL00, 0.93%.
Why the US stock market is less volatile during wars
Money Control online
Why, despite the war in Ukraine having ratcheted up economic uncertainty severely, are the equity markets relatively calm? The CBOE Volatility Index, for instance, is not particularly elevated. This is not the first time that this has happened.
Market calm shows that wartime doesn’t mean volatility
Financial Times online
War is cruel. In their own way, so are markets. When Russia invaded Ukraine last month, global stock markets initially tumbled amid investor shock.
Stock markets don't react to war in the way you'd expect
The Telegraph online
A war is waging in Ukraine. Europe’s supplies of oil and gas are running out, with rationing a possibility some time over the next few months.
Is the Nickel Market Broken?
The New York Times online
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken many markets, perhaps none as severely as trading in nickel. The chaos is causing supply problems for carmakers and others that need the metal — and raising fundamental questions about how commodity markets work.
Financial markets can be a blight or a blessing in pandemics
This article looks at how a pandemic impacts financial markets.
That new house has something to say about stock volatility
A look at the housing market and stock volatility.
Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID-19 crisesJournal of International Money and Finance
Gustavo S. Cortes, et al.
We compare the interventions conducted by the Federal Reserve in response to the subprime and COVID–19 crises with respect to their effectiveness in reducing disaster risk. Using model-free measures of disaster risk derived from daily options data, we document that interventions in response to both crises reduced tail risks in domestic equity markets. The spillover effects of the two crises have been markedly dissimilar.
Financial factors and the propagation of the Great DepressionJournal of Financial Economics
Gustavo S. Cortes, et al.
We investigate the role of forward-looking financial factors in propagating the Great Depression. We find that a new hand-collected bank stock index is better at predicting the onset of the Great Depression than the aggregate stock market or failed bank deposits. The bank stock index explains almost one-third of the fluctuations in industrial production after five years. Analysis disaggregated at each Federal Reserve district shows that bank stocks capture forward-looking information about debt defaults and credit.
Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate AmericaJournal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Murillo Campello, et al.
We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum had multi-faceted consequences for corporate America, shaping employment, investment, divestitures, R&D, and savings. The unexpected vote outcome led US firms to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the reversibility of capital and labor. American-based job destruction was particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers.