Areas of Expertise (7)
War and Conflict
International Conflict Resolution
Hein Goemans is an expert on International relations, conflict, qualitative and historical research. His current major research revolves around territory, borders and homelands; in a nutshell: why are people willing to fight and die for this, but not that piece of territory? His previous research examined the role of leaders in war termination and war initiation.
University of Chicago: PhD
Johns Hopkins University: MA
Selected Media Appearances (10)
Historian predicts how Russia's war in Ukraine could end
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, war historian and University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans paints what a potential end to the war could look like.
Ukraine series: how long will the war last?
Financial Times print
February the 24th will mark a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. With the fighting still raging, we’re devoting this month’s podcast to the war. My guest this week is Hein Goemans, professor at the University of Rochester in the United States. His academic specialism is war termination theory. In other words, how wars end.
Russia Will Pursue Desperate Strategies After It Exhausts Its Missile Supply
Merion West online
University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans, in his 2000 book, War and Punishment, explains that wars almost always end by negotiation when the strategic goals of the two adversaries are reduced, and therefore converge, due to costs and lost lives. Only in the process of fighting in the war is the true power balance revealed. Because democracies are more open regarding information than dictatorships, they are generally much better at determining relative power levels and, therefore, far less likely to start wars where they are likely to lose. We can, thus, expect that most war initiators, at least for large conflicts where victory is far less certain, are initiated by autocratic regimes like Imperial Germany in 1914; Imperial Japan in 1931, 1937, and 1941; Nazi Germany in 1939; North Korea in 1950; Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990; and Vladimir Putin’s Russia in 2022.
How the War in Ukraine Might End
CBC Television tv
Is Putin's war in Ukraine at a turning point?
Hein Goemans says It's better for Ukraine to keep on fighting because if Russia gets a victory, Putin will do the same thing again, perhaps elsewhere.
How Ukraine's advances are cornering Putin, making the war more dangerous
The Hill online
"It's highly likely that he will try risky things in order to pull a miracle out of his hat and get a victory big enough," said Hein Goemans.
How the War in Ukraine Might End
The New Yorker print
When Hein Goemans's book came out, in 2000, it was the first modern full-length study devoted entirely to the problem of war termination.
The prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine are bleak
Washington Post print
Analysis by Hein Goemans, Sarah Croco, Michael Joseph, Alex Weisiger, Thomas M. Dolan, and Page Fortna
What does Putin want from the Ukraine invasion?
Goemans notes that Ukraine’s fate might be tied to Putin’s survival.
Opinion | Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea
Hein Goemans of Rochester University studied autocratic regimes between 1946 and 2008 and found that 70 percent of personalist autocrats who lost power did so through irregular means like coups or revolts.
Selected Event Appearances (1)
Maps to Die For
Political Science Speaker Series Duke University