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Hein Goemans - University of Rochester. Rochester, NY, US

Hein Goemans

Professor of Political Science | University of Rochester


Goemans is an expert on international conflict and war termination

Areas of Expertise (7)


International Conflict

War termination

International Relations

War and Conflict

Territorial Disputes

International Conflict Resolution



Hein Goemans Publication Hein Goemans Publication







Hein Goemans is an expert on International relations, conflict, qualitative and historical research. His current major research revolves around territory, borders and homelands; in a nutshell: why are people willing to fight and die for this, but not that piece of territory? His previous research examined the role of leaders in war termination and war initiation.

Education (2)

University of Chicago: PhD

Johns Hopkins University: MA

Selected Media Appearances (12)

The Obstacles to Diplomacy in Ukraine Russia’s Extreme Demands—and Ukraine’s Desire to Survive—Make Negotiations Unlikely

Foreign Affairs  print


By Branislav L. Slantchev and Hein Goemans To make peace in a conflict, both parties have to be willing to accept each other’s minimum demands. And despite the mutual lack of progress, neither Russia nor Ukraine can swallow each other’s requirements. Kyiv, for instance, cannot accept Russia’s demand for new leadership. Moscow cannot accede to Ukraine’s demand for reparations. Both sides will not give up land. HEIN GOEMANS is Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. He is the author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War.

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How Russia and Ukraine interpret and signal information will determine the course of the war Hein Goemans and Branislav Slantchev argue that the fighting will not end until expectations converge

The Economist  print


War is learning, and learning is about information. The war in Ukraine, like any other, cannot end while the two sides have wildly different expectations about the likely outcome if both stay in the fight. Hein Goemans is a professor of political science at the University of Rochester and the author of “War and Punishment: the Causes of War Termination and the First World War”. Branislav Slantchev is a professor of political science at the University of California San Diego.

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Historian predicts how Russia's war in Ukraine could end

CNN  tv


As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, war historian and University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans paints what a potential end to the war could look like.

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Ukraine series: how long will the war last?

Financial Times  print


February the 24th will mark a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. With the fighting still raging, we’re devoting this month’s podcast to the war. My guest this week is Hein Goemans, professor at the University of Rochester in the United States. His academic specialism is war termination theory. In other words, how wars end.

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Russia Will Pursue Desperate Strategies After It Exhausts Its Missile Supply

Merion West  online


University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans, in his 2000 book, War and Punishment, explains that wars almost always end by negotiation when the strategic goals of the two adversaries are reduced, and therefore converge, due to costs and lost lives. Only in the process of fighting in the war is the true power balance revealed. Because democracies are more open regarding information than dictatorships, they are generally much better at determining relative power levels and, therefore, far less likely to start wars where they are likely to lose. We can, thus, expect that most war initiators, at least for large conflicts where victory is far less certain, are initiated by autocratic regimes like Imperial Germany in 1914; Imperial Japan in 1931, 1937, and 1941; Nazi Germany in 1939; North Korea in 1950; Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990; and Vladimir Putin’s Russia in 2022.

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How the War in Ukraine Might End

CBC Television  tv



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Is Putin's war in Ukraine at a turning point?

BBC  online


Hein Goemans says It's better for Ukraine to keep on fighting because if Russia gets a victory, Putin will do the same thing again, perhaps elsewhere.

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How Ukraine's advances are cornering Putin, making the war more dangerous

The Hill  online


"It's highly likely that he will try risky things in order to pull a miracle out of his hat and get a victory big enough," said Hein Goemans.

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How the War in Ukraine Might End

The New Yorker  print


When Hein Goemans's book came out, in 2000, it was the first modern full-length study devoted entirely to the problem of war termination.

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The prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine are bleak

Washington Post  print


Analysis by Hein Goemans, Sarah Croco, Michael Joseph, Alex Weisiger, Thomas M. Dolan, and Page Fortna

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What does Putin want from the Ukraine invasion?

Futurity  online


Goemans notes that Ukraine’s fate might be tied to Putin’s survival.

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Opinion | Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea

Politico  online


Hein Goemans of Rochester University studied autocratic regimes between 1946 and 2008 and found that 70 percent of personalist autocrats who lost power did so through irregular means like coups or revolts.

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Selected Event Appearances (1)

Maps to Die For

Political Science Speaker Series  Duke University