Hein Goemans
Professor of Political Science | University of Rochester
Rochester, NY, UNITED STATES
Goemans is an expert on international conflict and war termination
Areas of Expertise (7)
Ukraine
International Conflict
War termination
International Relations
War and Conflict
Territorial Disputes
International Conflict Resolution
Media
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Links (1)
Biography
Hein Goemans is an expert on International relations, conflict, qualitative and historical research. His current major research revolves around territory, borders and homelands; in a nutshell: why are people willing to fight and die for this, but not that piece of territory? His previous research examined the role of leaders in war termination and war initiation.
Education (2)
University of Chicago: PhD
Johns Hopkins University: MA
Selected Media Appearances (12)
The Obstacles to Diplomacy in Ukraine Russia’s Extreme Demands—and Ukraine’s Desire to Survive—Make Negotiations Unlikely
Foreign Affairs print
2024-04-01
By Branislav L. Slantchev and Hein Goemans To make peace in a conflict, both parties have to be willing to accept each other’s minimum demands. And despite the mutual lack of progress, neither Russia nor Ukraine can swallow each other’s requirements. Kyiv, for instance, cannot accept Russia’s demand for new leadership. Moscow cannot accede to Ukraine’s demand for reparations. Both sides will not give up land. HEIN GOEMANS is Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. He is the author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War.
How Russia and Ukraine interpret and signal information will determine the course of the war Hein Goemans and Branislav Slantchev argue that the fighting will not end until expectations converge
The Economist print
2023-09-21
War is learning, and learning is about information. The war in Ukraine, like any other, cannot end while the two sides have wildly different expectations about the likely outcome if both stay in the fight. Hein Goemans is a professor of political science at the University of Rochester and the author of “War and Punishment: the Causes of War Termination and the First World War”. Branislav Slantchev is a professor of political science at the University of California San Diego.
Historian predicts how Russia's war in Ukraine could end
CNN tv
2023-02-27
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, war historian and University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans paints what a potential end to the war could look like.
Ukraine series: how long will the war last?
Financial Times print
2023-02-16
February the 24th will mark a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. With the fighting still raging, we’re devoting this month’s podcast to the war. My guest this week is Hein Goemans, professor at the University of Rochester in the United States. His academic specialism is war termination theory. In other words, how wars end.
Russia Will Pursue Desperate Strategies After It Exhausts Its Missile Supply
Merion West online
2022-12-01
University of Rochester professor Hein Goemans, in his 2000 book, War and Punishment, explains that wars almost always end by negotiation when the strategic goals of the two adversaries are reduced, and therefore converge, due to costs and lost lives. Only in the process of fighting in the war is the true power balance revealed. Because democracies are more open regarding information than dictatorships, they are generally much better at determining relative power levels and, therefore, far less likely to start wars where they are likely to lose. We can, thus, expect that most war initiators, at least for large conflicts where victory is far less certain, are initiated by autocratic regimes like Imperial Germany in 1914; Imperial Japan in 1931, 1937, and 1941; Nazi Germany in 1939; North Korea in 1950; Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990; and Vladimir Putin’s Russia in 2022.
Is Putin's war in Ukraine at a turning point?
BBC online
2022-10-17
Hein Goemans says It's better for Ukraine to keep on fighting because if Russia gets a victory, Putin will do the same thing again, perhaps elsewhere.
How Ukraine's advances are cornering Putin, making the war more dangerous
The Hill online
2022-10-07
"It's highly likely that he will try risky things in order to pull a miracle out of his hat and get a victory big enough," said Hein Goemans.
How the War in Ukraine Might End
The New Yorker print
2022-10-29
When Hein Goemans's book came out, in 2000, it was the first modern full-length study devoted entirely to the problem of war termination.
The prospects for a negotiated peace in Ukraine are bleak
Washington Post print
2022-03-25
Analysis by Hein Goemans, Sarah Croco, Michael Joseph, Alex Weisiger, Thomas M. Dolan, and Page Fortna
What does Putin want from the Ukraine invasion?
Futurity online
2022-02-28
Goemans notes that Ukraine’s fate might be tied to Putin’s survival.
Opinion | Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea
Politico online
2022-04-12
Hein Goemans of Rochester University studied autocratic regimes between 1946 and 2008 and found that 70 percent of personalist autocrats who lost power did so through irregular means like coups or revolts.
Selected Event Appearances (1)
Maps to Die For
Political Science Speaker Series Duke University
2022-03-03
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