Kevin Wagner, Ph.D.

Professor and Department Chair Florida Atlantic University

  • Boca Raton FL

Kevin Wagner's research and teaching interests include judicial politics, political behavior and legislative behavior

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Spotlight

2 min

The election is over, and Republicans have swept the White House and Congress

The race for the White House is over, and the Republicans have been swept into power with historic gains in Congress and control of the executive branch. What will their policy priorities be and how will the new political landscape mold the direction of the new Trump administration? What will the Democrats, now a minority opposition party, do? Can they adapt to a winning strategy in time for the midterms in two years? If you are covering American politics, how do you make sense of all the changes? How do you know what issues are going to drive decisions in Washington, D.C.? What can polling tell us about what happened? Where did the polls fall short? What will pollsters be looking at moving forward? We have an expert who can help. Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., is Florida Atlantic University’s renowned political science expert and coexecutive director of Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) —the university’s extensive and nationally covered polling operation. View profile View some of Kevin Wagner's recent media here: ABC News Florida Atlantic University professor of political science Kevin Wagner says Florida’s shift started several years ago and it’s due to a variety of factors. "Certainly, there was some pretty good evidence that we had people moving from states like California and New York looking for a more conservative environment, and they brought their politics with them when they came to Florida," Wagner said. "That influx of more conservative voters certainly mattered. It's not the only thing that mattered." WINK Some voters believe the 60% mark is too high to make constitutional changes. For the threshold to change, it has to be put on the ballot for voters to decide and would need at least 60% of the vote. “Getting 60% of the voters to agree on anything is really hard and when it’s something that’s highly contested. It makes it even harder,” Florida Atlantic University Political Science Professor Kevin Wagner said. THE PINNACLE GAZETTE Political analysts point to various factors contributing to Florida’s Republican shift. Kathryn DePalo-Gould, a political scientist from Florida International University, aptly stated, “It’s now so solidly Republican it is crimson.” This sentiment was echoed by Kevin Wagner from Florida Atlantic University, highlighting how previously competitive races have now become predictable Republican wins. Indeed, Trump’s haul of 61 out of 67 counties stands as a testifier to this changing political tide. Looking to connect? He is here to answer all your questions and is available for interviews. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Kevin Wagner, Ph.D.

2 min

It's neck and neck and our expert is here to help with your election coverage

The tight race for the White House is approaching the home stretch as U.S. Vice President Kamila Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump appeal to voters across the country. With assassination attempts and U.S. President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, this election has already proven to be a unique historical event in American politics. If you’re covering the race, how do you make sense of the twists and turns? How do you know what issues are driving voters in this tight race? What is going on with the “down ticket” races? Can polls help you predict what’s coming? We have an expert who can help. Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., is Florida Atlantic University’s renowned political science expert and co-executive director of Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab)—the university’s extensive and nationally covered polling operation. View some of Kevin Wagner's recent media here: Newsweek: "Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek via email on September 2: "Both Harris and Trump have some potential to attract independents or voters from the opposing party, though this cross-party appeal is likely to be limited given the high levels of partisan polarization in recent elections." Forbes: “If they’re going to hit that 60%, the supporters of the amendment are probably going to have to reach a few more Republicans or have a particularly Democratic-leaning electorate, which sees a challenge in a presidential election year,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist, according to a report from the South Florida SunSentinal." New York Post: "On the whole, there does appear to be a solid base of support for Harris in the Democratic Party,” said Kevin Wagner co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab and professor of political science. “But there is still substantial uncertainty. Some Democratic voters are still looking for another candidate. Harris has time to unify the party before the convention, but she needs to move quickly, or this could potentially spin out of control for the Democrats.” Looking to connect? He is here to answer all your questions and is available for interviews. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Kevin Wagner, Ph.D.

1 min

The long road to 2024 begins tonight in Milwaukee and FAU's political expert is here to help with your coverage.

The race to lead the GOP kicked off long ago, but all eyes are on Wisconsin tonight as the first Republican presidential debate takes place. The field, as expected, is crowded and chock full of hopefuls. But how will Donald Trump’s absence affect the debate? And will it even matter given his massive lead in the polls among Republican voters? In his absence will a strong alternative emerge, and if so, what does he or she need to do to coalesce the GOP vote and bolster a campaign that is in for a long fight against a former president that seems unscathed by indictments, scandal and deemed almost unstoppable? If you're covering the race we have an expert who can help with your stories. Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., is Florida Atlantic University’s renowned political science expert. He is here to answer all your questions and is available for interviews. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Kevin Wagner, Ph.D.
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Biography

Kevin Wagner received his J.D. from the University of Florida and worked as an attorney and member of the Florida Bar with the law firm of Scott, Harris, Bryan, Barra, and Jorgensen in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. He returned to the University of Florida five years later to earn an M.A. and Ph.D in political science.

Wagner has lectured extensively on American Politics and has been cited in many leading newspapers including the New York Times, Boston Globe, New York Newsday, the Dallas Morning News, and the Miami Herald. He has been featured as the political analyst for CBS 12 in West Palm Beach and on national television including NBC’s “The Today Show.”

His work has been published in leading journals and law reviews including American Review of Politics, Journal of Legislative Studies, and Politics and Policy.

Wagner has presented at national conferences including the American Political Science Association, the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association. His recent work focuses on the affects of technology on politics and campaigning and is currently completing a book with Roman and Littlefield Press entitled "Click and Reboot: How the Internet is Revolutionizing American Politics." His other research focuses in the areas of American Institutions, American Political Development, Judicial Politics, Political Behavior, and Research Methods.

Areas of Expertise

Florida Politics
Politics in Film and Fiction
Research Methods
Public Opinion and American Politics
Political Party and Interest Groups
Media in Politics
Judicial Politics

Accomplishments

Lifelong Learning Society Distinguished Professor in Current Affairs

2017 / 2018

Dorothy F. Schmidt College of Arts and Letters: Scholar of the Year Nominee

2014

Lifelong Learning Society Distinguished Professor in Current Affairs

2013 / 2014

Education

University of Florida

Ph.D.

American Politics, Political Behavior, and Methodology

2005

University of Florida

M.A.

American Politics, Political Behavior, and Methodology

2002

University of Florida, Frederic G. Levin College of Law

J.D.

Law

1996

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Affiliations

  • American Political Science Association
  • Midwest Political Science Association
  • Southern Political Science Association
  • Florida Political Science Association
  • American Bar Association
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Selected Media Appearances

Trump Ally Ron DeSantis Wins Florida Governor's Race

Bloomberg  

2018-11-06

“DeSantis winning illustrates that the president’s power to motivate Republican voters is still very strong," said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton...

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Florida voters more concerned about health care, economy and immigration than guns

South Florida Sun Sentinel  

2018-11-02

“The fact that we’re talking about immigration is consistent with the [news] coverage of the immigration issue and how much the president has been focused on it,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University and a research fellow at FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative...

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Despite all those Rick Scott TV ads going after Bill Nelson, poll finds Florida voters unmoved

South Florida Sun Sentinel  

2018-08-22

evin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said that’s too minor a change to draw any conclusion about the direction of the race. It could be a statistical blip...

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Selected Articles

Is the equalization/normalization lens dead? Social media campaigning in US congressional elections

Online Information Review

J Gainous, A Segal, K Wagner

2018

Early information technology scholarship centered on the internet’s potential to be a democratizing force was often framed using an equalization/normalization lens arguing that either the internet was going to be an equalizing force bringing power to the masses, or it was going to be normalized into the existing power structure. The purpose of this paper is to argue that considered over time the equalization/normalization lens still sheds light on our understanding of how social media (SM) strategy can shape electoral success asking if SM are an equalizing force balancing the resource gap between candidates or are being normalized into the modern campaign.

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Critical social media information flows: political trust and protest behaviour among Kazakhstani college students

Central Asian Survey

A Bekmagambetov, KM Wagner, J Gainous, Z Sabitov, A Rodionov, et al.

2018

In political regimes where traditional mass media are under state control, social networking sites may be the only place where citizens are exposed to and exchange dissident information. Despite all the attempts, complete control of social media seems to be implausible. We argue that the critical information that people see, read and share online undermines their trust in political institutions. This diminishing trust may threaten the legitimacy of the ruling regime and stimulate protest behaviour. We rely on original survey data of Kazakhstani college students to confirm these expectations. The data are unique in that they directly measure exposure to critical/dissident information, as opposed to simply assuming it. The analysis leverages Coarsened Exact Matching to simulate experimental conditions. This allows us to better identify the consequential mechanism and the attitudinal precursor by which social media influence protest in an authoritarian context.

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Digital media and political opposition in authoritarian systems: Russia’s 2011 and 2016 Duma elections

Democratization

J Gainous, KM Wagner, CE Ziegler

2018

The ability of authoritarian regimes to maintain power hinges, in part, on how well they are able to manipulate the flow of information to the masses. While authoritarian states have had success controlling traditional media, the growth of social media over the last decade has created new challenges for such regimes. The Russian experience offers an example of how an authoritarian regime responds to this potential threat. Because of the massive demonstrations surrounding the 2011–2012 Duma elections, the ruling Russian government suspected that social media provided a significant impetus for the demonstrations. Social media, through its dissemination of opposition blogs, could have helped drive negative attitudes about the governing party. As such, the government responded by employing strategies to tighten their grip on the digital flow of information. We use survey data to demonstrate that exposure to blogs via social media at the time of the demonstrations led many to believe that the elections were fraudulent. Ultimately, we contend that Russian fears concerning the importance of social media for the fomenting of opposition movements is well grounded. Social media can drive support for opposition in an autocratic state.

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