Mark C. Urban, Ph.D.

As scientists investigate whether an entire Arctic ecosystem can evolve in response to a rapidly warming climate, UConn’s Mark Urban brings leading expertise on the intersection of evolution, biodiversity, and climate change. Climate change is transforming the Arctic faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. Earlier snowmelt, warmer temperatures, and changing waterways are altering habitats and putting new pressures on the plants and animals that depend on them. But what if nature can evolve in response, not simply one species at a time, but as an interconnected ecosystem? That is the ambitious question behind a six-year, $15-million National Science Foundation-funded research project recently featured in The Guardian. Scientists working on Alaska’s North Slope are studying five interconnected species — white-crowned sparrows, feltleaf willow, Arctic grayling, aquatic mayflies, and ground beetles — to understand whether ecological relationships themselves can evolve as the climate changes. It is a question that sits squarely within the expertise of Mark C. Urban, Ph.D., Professor and Arden Chair of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. Urban is a global expert on the impact of climate change on biodiversity, eco-evolution, and extinction risk. His research integrates ecology, evolution, and genetics to better understand how species and ecological communities respond to environmental change. He has also conducted extensive field research in Alaska, including research involving Arctic grayling and their ability to respond to a rapidly changing climate. Recently, his work was featured in an in-depth piece by The Guardian. “Across hundreds of experiments, we have seen this happening,” says Mark Urban, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Connecticut working on the project. “There is this incredible buffer ability of adaptive evolution.” How the evolution of one species can help the holistic ecosystems depends on how an adaptive trait ultimately translates into ecological properties. For example, if a fish species can quickly evolve, it means that not only is the population maintained, but so is the stream’s productivity. “Any ecological properties that depend on those populations are maintained as well,” Urban says. To get a better idea of whether the Arctic’s stream and tundra habitats will continue to prosper, scientists are mapping the genetic diversity of each of the five study species to see if there is enough to allow for adaptation – influencing the ecosystems’ resilience potential. “We can get so far with ecology, but at some point we want to get down to the basics of why organisms do the things they do, and can they change the things they do,” says Urban. “That’s something only genetics can explain.” Certain genes control the traits associated with succeeding in different environments. “The holy grail in genomics is to find that one gene that affects everything. The gene that rules them all,” he says. “I think that’s optimistic. Most of the traits are going to be determined by hundreds of thousands of genes.”  The Guardian September 2026 Studies reveal that many plants and animals have been able to persist through evolutionary rescue – the process by which a population on the brink of extinction survives and rebounds through rapid genetic adaptation. Scarlet monkeyflowers in Oregon and California, for example, rapidly evolved during the 2010s to survive a four-year drought. The implications extend far beyond the Arctic. Scientists have traditionally examined how individual species might migrate, acclimatize, or evolve as their environments change. But ecosystems are networks. Fish depend on insects, insects depend on vegetation and water conditions, and predators depend on prey. If those relationships change at different speeds, the consequences can ripple throughout an ecosystem. Urban's work examines precisely these kinds of connections — how ecological and evolutionary processes interact and ultimately influence biodiversity and the resilience of natural systems. His recent research has also examined the growing risk of species extinction as global temperatures rise. The emerging science raises some fascinating questions: How quickly can evolution occur? Can genetic diversity give ecosystems a natural buffer against climate change? What happens when one species adapts faster than another? And are there limits to how much change an ecosystem can absorb before it begins to unravel? As scientists attempt to understand whether nature can keep pace with a rapidly changing planet, Urban can provide valuable perspective on what evolution can — and cannot — do, and what the findings could mean for biodiversity and conservation around the world. If you're interested in speaking with Mark Urban about climate change, evolution, biodiversity, Arctic ecosystems, or extinction risk, click on his profile below.

A recent study authored by the University of Connecticut's Mark Urban found that close to one third of species across the globe would be at risk of extinction by the end of the century if greenhouse gases continue to increase at current levels. His study, published in the journal Science, looked at more than three decades of biodiversity and climate change research. The findings are alarming. The study found that if global temperatures rise to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above the pre-industrial average temperature, exceeding the target of the Paris Agreement, extinctions would rapidly accelerate — especially for amphibians; species in mountain, island and freshwater ecosystems; and species in South America, Australia and New Zealand. Earth has already warmed about 1.8 F (1 C) since the Industrial Revolution. Climate change causes shifts in temperatures and precipitation patterns, altering habitats and species interactions. For instance, warmer temperatures have caused monarch butterfly migration to mismatch with the blooming of plants they pollinate. Many animal and plant species are shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations to follow more favorable temperatures. While some species might adapt or migrate in response to changing environmental conditions, some can't survive the drastic environmental changes, resulting in population declines and sometimes extinction. Global assessments have predicted rising extinction risks for over a million species, but scientists have not clearly understood how exactly this growing risk is linked to climate change. The new study, published Thursday (Dec. 5) in the journal Science, analyzed over 30 years of biodiversity and climate change research, encompassing over 450 studies of most known species. If greenhouse gas emissions are managed in accordance with the Paris Agreement, nearly 1 in 50 species worldwide — an estimated 180,000 species — will be at risk of extinction by 2100. When the climate model's temperature is increased to a 4.9 F (2.7 C) rise, which is predicted under current international emissions commitments, 1 in 20 species around the world would be at risk of extinction. Hypothetical warming beyond this point makes the number of species at risk rise sharply: 14.9% of species were at risk of extinction under a 7.7 F (4.3 C) warming scenario, which assumes high greenhouse gas emissions. And 29.7% of all species would be at risk of extinction under a 9.7 F (5.4 C) warming scenario, a high estimate, but one that is possible given current emissions trends. The increase in the number of species at risk increases steeply beyond the 1.5 C warming target, study author Mark Urban, a biologist at the University of Connecticut told Live Science. "If we keep global warming to below 1.5 C, in accordance with the Paris Agreement, then the [extinction] risk from today to 1.5 C is not a large increase," Urban said. But at a 2.7 C rise, the trajectory accelerates. Species in South America, Australia and New Zealand face the greatest threats. Amphibians are the most threatened because amphibians' life cycles depend heavily on weather, and are highly sensitive to shifting rainfall patterns and drought, Urban said. Mountain, island and freshwater ecosystems have the most at-risk species, likely because these isolated environments are surrounded by inhospitable habitats for their species, making it difficult or impossible for them to migrate and seek more favorable climates, he added. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions can slow warming and halt these growing extinction risks, but understanding which species and ecosystems are most affected by climate change can also help target conservation efforts where they're needed most. Urban hopes the results have an impact on policymakers. "The main message for policymakers is that this relationship is much more certain," Urban said. "There's no longer the excuse to do nothing because these impacts are uncertain."  December 5, 2024 Live Science This is an important topic, and if you're a journalist looking to learn more, we can help. Mark Urban is an international award-winning scientist; a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and the Arden Chair Ecology & Evolutionary Biology at UConn; and a global expert on climate change impacts on nature. He is available to speak with media simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.