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Daniel McCarthy - Emory University, Goizueta Business School. Atlanta, GA, US

Daniel McCarthy Daniel McCarthy

Assistant Professor of Marketing | Emory University, Goizueta Business School

Atlanta, GA, UNITED STATES

Marketing expert focused upon methodologies and frameworks for predicting customer behavior to better understand firm-level outcomes

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Biography

I am an Assistant Professor of Marketing at Emory University's Goizueta School of Business. My research specialty is the application of leading-edge statistical methodology to contemporary empirical marketing problems. My research interests include customer lifetime value, missing and aggregated data problems, and the marketing/finance interface.

My research specialty is “customer-based corporate valuation” which brings together all of these research interests. It is a methodology for valuing companies from the “bottom up” by predicting what those companies’ customers will do in the future. My work in this area has been featured in major media outlets such as the Harvard Business Review, Wall Street Journal, FT, Fortune, Barron’s, Inc Magazine, the Economist, and CNBC. I won the Don Lehmann Award, the MSI Alden G. Clayton, ASA, ISMS, and Shankar-Spiegel Dissertation Proposal Competitions and was a finalist for the John A. Howard/AMA, JM Hunt/Maynard, and MSI H. Paul Root Awards for this work. I am grateful to Adobe Corporation for $50,000 in research support for it.

My research has been accepted and published in top-tier academic journals such as the Journal of Marketing Research, the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of the American Statistical Association: Theory and Methods, Statistica Sinica, and the Annals of Applied Statistics.

In 2015, I co-founded a predictive analytics company, Zodiac, where I was the Chief Statistician. Zodiac was acquired by Nike in March 2018. I subsequently co-founded Theta Equity Partners to commercialize my work on customer-based corporate valuation.

Areas of Expertise (7)

Missing Data

Customer relationship management (CRM) using Digital Marketing and Analytics

Customer-Based Corporate Valuation

Marketing-Finance Interface

Customer Lifetime Value

Bayesian Computation

Valuation

Education (3)

University of Pennsylvania: PhD, Statistics 2017

University of Pennsylvania: BSc, Economics 2006

University of Pennsylvania: BAS, Systems Science Engineering 2006

In the News (28)

Can E-Scooters Contribute to Economic Recovery Post-Covid-19?

Spin  online

2021-03-11

“The post-COVID economic recovery remains slow, but this research shows we shouldn’t ignore the positive impact of micromobility on small businesses,” said Dan McCarthy, senior author of the study and assistant professor of marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School."

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Scooters Drive Significant Spending in Cities, New Emory Study Finds

Bird  online

2021-03-11

“All the data points to the same conclusion: e-scooters drive consumer spending and likely provide a significant financial boon to local economies,” said McCarthy.

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DoorDash IPO and customer valuation

Wharton Business Radio  radio

2020-12-10

“I wasn’t surprised in the sense that the timing for the IPO couldn’t have been more perfect. They were putting up 100-200% gross year on year for 5 years in a row before COVID, COVID shot up their growth to 200% a year, they had the Prop 22 ruling which went in their favor, they’ve been cash flow positive for the past couple of quarters, hot IPO market – this was a great time for them to IPO and the market reacted accordingly.”

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DoorDash poised to grow despite challenges, experts say ahead of public debut

S&P Global: Market Intelligence  online

2020-12-08

Even before the pandemic hit, customers who stay with the firm tend to place more and more orders over time," Daniel McCarthy, assistant professor of marketing at Emory University, told Market Intelligence.

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Remote learning boots back-to-school spending

NPR Marketplace  online

2020-08-11

"Back-to-school shopping is mirroring what parents may have bought for themselves at the start of the pandemic,” said Daniel McCarthy, a marketing professor at Emory University.

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Big-data marketing initiatives help organizations capitalize on new growth, experts say

Atlanta Business Chronicle  online

2020-05-19

“Transitioning certain business processes to be more integrated and customer-centric is taking a lot longer than it should due to functional silos,” McCarthy said.

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Corporate Valuation Will Never Be the Same — Nor Should It

Financial Times  online

2020-04-24

McCarthy adds, “You always want to play good offense, but in a bear market, playing good defense [using CBCV] can be what keeps you in the game.”

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Blue Apron Will Have Trouble Keeping Its Newfound Customers

Markets Insider  online

2020-04-14

Dan McCarthy, assistant professor of marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School, recently told Yahoo Finance that this newfound business isn’t the answer. “The amount of repeat business they were getting was not enough to sustain their business,” McCarthy said in a phone interview. “It’s likely delaying the inevitable.”

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Wayfair shares surge 37% as coronavirus drives sales of office furniture and home decor

CNBC  online

2020-04-06

The fact that Wayfair is seeing an increase in sales makes sense,” said Dan McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University. “Wayfair had no physical stores, while its competitors do, which those competitors could not sell through.”

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Blue Apron Fends Off Obscurity in Another 15 Minutes of Fame

Bloomberg  online

2020-03-27

“The amount of repeat business they were getting was not enough to sustain their business,” McCarthy said in a phone interview. “It’s likely delaying the inevitable.”

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Investors Need to Know: What’s Your Customer Worth?

Net Promoter System  online

2020-03-12

Dan McCarthy, of Emory University’s Goizueta Business School and cofounder of Theta Equity Partners, explains how transparent disclosures about customer value would fundamentally change investor and executive behavior.

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Now There’s a Way to Link Customer Behavior to Share Price

Net Promoter System  online

2020-02-27

Dan McCarthy of Emory University’s Goizueta Business School and cofounder of Theta Equity Partners explains how “customer-based corporate valuation” makes customer behavior a critical element of financial valuation.

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Casper prices IPO at $12 a share, which is at the low end of estimates

CNBC  online

2020-02-05

“When Casper’s last [funding] round was done, the mattress category was growing quite nicely,” said Dan McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta School of Business.

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How to Value a Company by Analyzing Its Customers

Harvard Business Review  online

2020-01-01

This article details how managers and investors can utilize models of customer acquisition, attrition, and spending to gain new insights into the value of a firm.

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Why Peloton Stock Dropped More Than 10% After ‘Sexist’ Ad Backlash

Forbes  online

2019-12-05

Daniel McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School, attributes the stock price volatility directly to the ad.

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Peloton's hot IPO prospects: How much is just spin?

CBS News  tv

2019-09-26

"According to the math, says McCarthy of Emory's Goizueta Business School, if just 0.65% of Peloton's customers abandon its streaming services each month, then the average customer sticks around for nearly 13 years. That may be overly optimistic."

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Finding the Value in IPOs: Why Customer Behavior Holds the Key

The Wharton School (K@W)  online

2019-08-13

“Not all revenue growth is created equal.”

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Outlook for Slack's opening trade on the NYSE through a direct listing

Yahoo! Finance  online

2019-06-20

“We’ve been hearing this $26 reference price that equates to a $16 billion equity valuation, and conservatively I put their valuation at closer to $18 billion, or even higher than that.”

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Costs Catch Back Up With Wayfair

The Wall Street Journal  online

2019-05-02

"... while in the fourth quarter the company’s customer-acquisition costs hovered around $77 per customer, in the first quarter it shot up to $88 per customer, a new high, according to Daniel McCarthy, a marketing professor at Emory."

The Wall Street Journal

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Wayfair shares plunge 12% as losses widen, hurt by high costs

CNBC  online

2019-03-01

"The company is also spending a lot to acquire new customers, according to Daniel McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University. He has been warning about this trend for some time. In the first quarter, customer acquisition costs were $88 per customer."

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Why and How to Transition to a Subscription Business

CFO  online

2018-10-02

Such benefits as predictable recurring revenue, easier borrowing, and strong cash flow are just for starters. However, there are risks as well.

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The World's Most Ruthless Food Startup: The Inside Story of How HelloFresh Clawed Its Way to the Top

Inc.  print

2018-06-28

HelloFresh blew past 100 competitors to become the No. 1 meal-kit company on the planet. The German startup is winning--but not by playing nice.

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Upstart meal-kit companies may need a new recipe for growth

The Economist  print

2018-04-14

Competition from supermarket chains is eating into their profits

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The Wayfair Riddle

The Wall Street Journal  print

2018-02-12

A recent study by marketing professors Daniel McCarthy of Emory University and Peter Fader of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School found that Wayfair spends about $69 to acquire each new customer, but only earns $59 back from each acquisition. Using a method of valuing publicly traded retailers that focuses on customer retention, Professors McCarthy and Fader conclude that Wayfair is overvalued by 84%.

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A new study shows Wayfair is losing money...

Markets Insider  online

2017-09-27

In a lengthy paper released late last week, Daniel McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University, and Peter Fader, a marketing professor at Wharton, present a new method of valuing publicly-traded retailers that focuses on customer retention. Wayfair is an unfortunate guinea pig example.

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Blue Apron Holdings Inc. is struggling to win over investors in its initial public offering, a disappointing development for a U.S. IPO market that has been on the rebound.

The Wall Street Journal  online

2017-06-28

Blue Apron Holdings Inc. is struggling to win over investors in its initial public offering, a disappointing development for a U.S. IPO market that has been on the rebound.

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Blue Apron Slashes Potential IPO Price; Blame Amazon and Whole Foods?

Barron’s  online

2017-06-28

Looming competition and weak fundamentals seem to have put a damper on Blue Apron’s IPO plans.

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Subscription Businesses Are Booming. Here’s How to Value Them

Harvard Business Review  online

2017-12-19

While there are no cut and dry solutions, the customer-based corporate valuation methodology can help both businesses and investors to better understand the value associated with a subscription-based model.

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