Michael Rawlins
Extension Associate Professor and Associate Director, Climate System Research Center University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Amherst MA
Michael Rawlins studies Arctic hydrology while serving as a leading regional expert on weather anomalies and the impacts of climate change.
University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Expertise
Biography
His core research focuses on the changing Arctic system, utilizing advanced numerical modeling to investigate how a warming climate accelerates the polar water cycle. By scaling hydrological models to capture fine-grained environmental shifts, his work examines how rapidly thawing permafrost in northern Alaska is altering river flows, disrupting indigenous communities, and transforming the Arctic from a historical carbon sink into a net source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Concurrently, he serves as a prominent public voice and media resource on how global climate shifts manifest locally. He is frequently called upon by national and regional news outlets to explain the mechanics behind extreme weather events, changing seasonal patterns, and unprecedented environmental anomalies across the Northeast. From analyzing historic droughts and shifting winter baselines to evaluating urban heat islands and heightened wildfire risks, his public service outreach bridges complex climate data with the immediate, real-world impacts experienced by communities throughout New England.
Social Media
Video
Education
University of New Hampshire
Ph.D.
Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of Delaware
M.S.
Geography/Climatology
University of Delaware
B.S.
Environmental Science
Select Recent Media Coverage
How Permafrost Thaw Triggers Ancient Carbon Release Into Transforming Arctic Rivers
Nature World News online
2026-04-30
A University of Massachusetts Amherst study spanning 44 years across Alaska's North Slope reveals how permafrost thaw deepens the active soil layer by up to 20 centimeters in places. Groundwater surges into rivers, extending thaw seasons into September and October.
Permanent Change to Alaska Sparks Alarm
Newsweek online
2026-04-02
“What makes this question so hard to answer is that direct observations are very sparse in northern Alaska,” said [Michael] Rawlins in a statement. “There are nowhere near enough river sample measurements to quantify inputs to estuaries along the entire Alaskan North Slope.”
Could the Northeast Burn Again?
Inside Climate News online
2025-02-18
Michael Rawlins, associate director of the Climate System Research Center, comments about the potential for wildfires in New England. Rawlins says warmer air pulls more moisture from leaf litter, twigs and soil across the forest floor, leaving behind a perfect fuel for fire.
Why Did Brooklyn’s Biggest Park Light Up in Flames?
Slate online
2024-11-12
Michael Rawlins, associate director of the Climate System Research Center at UMass Amherst, discusses the role of climate change in the current drought and wildfires in the Northeast. Rawlins says a quickly warming Arctic may be causing short-term weather systems to linger. “Instead of a dry week, we’re seeing more like a dry two weeks or three weeks,” he says.
We Ruined Rain
The Atlantic online
2024-06-20
Michael Rawlins, associate director of the Climate Research Center, comments in an article about how climate change has made rainfall a peril rather than a benefit. Rawlins says that just as societies developed because of the use of fossil fuels and that led to problems from carbon emissions, water made life possible, but because of climate change, water too, “is almost coming back to bite us.”
The Earth had its warmest May ever, the 12th record-breaking month in a row. How does New England stack up?
The Boston Globe print
2024-05-31
“The recent run of 11 consecutive record global average temperatures is hard to comprehend, and it means that we may not fully understand how the various factors are contributing to the sharp uptick in heat in recent years,” says Michael Rawlins, associate director of Climate System Research Center at UMass Amherst. Rawlins’ comments are in response to data showing that May was the warmest on record on planet Earth.
The plants tell the story: Massachusetts’ coldest days not nearly so cold
The Boston Globe print
2023-11-17
Michael Rawlins comments in an article reporting that the U.S. Department of Agriculture has updated its plant hardiness map to reflect the warmer climate over the past 30 years. Among other changes, the new map removes pockets in north-central and western Massachusetts where temperatures were expected to reach as low as 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero at least once each winter. “There should be no doubt that a warming climate attributable to human activities, namely the burning of fossil fuels, is the dominant influence on these changes,” Rawlins says.
Increased January rainfall ends drought in Massachusetts
New England Public Media
2023-02-14
Michael Rawlins, a climatologist and associate director of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said despite wetter conditions of late, some water sources will take longer to replenish. "Deeper groundwater recharge, that will likely take several more months, at least normal precipitation in the spring and going into the summer," he said.
Massachusetts doesn’t have a state climatologist. Here’s why that matters.
The Boston Globe print
2022-07-10
"Without a climatologist, there is no clear point of contact for the public, businesses, educators, and policymakers, said Michael Rawlins, associate director of the Climate System Research Center at UMass Amherst.
Rawlins has tried to meet this need by serving as a de facto (and pro bono) climatologist, but there are only so many hours in a day. For example, he’s tried to disseminate weather and climate information to the media, and he did about 20 interviews last year."
Carbon Arctic Cycle: Further Insight on How This Element is Transferred Between Land, Atmosphere and Ocean Unveiled
The Science Times online
2021-10-13
The University of Massachusetts Amherst's geosciences department professor and associate director of the Climate System Research Center Michael Rawlings made substantial gains in filling out the insight of the carbon Arctic cycle, or the manner that carbon is being transferred between the land, atmosphere, and ocean via the recently published papers.
Welcome to the Climate Apocalypse. (It will get worse.)
The Boston Globe print
2021-07-24
When it comes to rain, there’s another issue at play too, because a warmer atmosphere holds more water. “The atmosphere can hold 4 percent more water for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of warming,” said Michael Rawlins, of the Climate System Research Center at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. When you have a storm system with significantly more water in it just sit over one spot, what might have been a rainy day a few decades ago looks more like a tragedy.
Select Publications
Hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw drive increased freshwater and organic carbon inputs to northern Alaska estuaries
Global Biogeochemical CyclesRawlins, M. A., Connolly, C. T., & McClelland, J. W.
2026-04-01
Understanding how hydrological inflows and climate change influence individual estuaries across northern Alaska is limited by a paucity of measured data, necessitating the application of suitably scaled numerical process models. This study uses an updated model to quantify freshwater discharge and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to coastal waters of the Beaufort Sea and examines climate-linked temporal changes. The model was applied at 1 km resolution across the 166,483 km NSA domain over 1980–2023.
Arctic rivers face big changes with a warming climate, permafrost thaw and an accelerating water cycle − the effects will have global consequences
The ConversationMichael Rawlins and Ambarish Karmalkar
2024-03-05
”As the Arctic warms, its mighty rivers are changing in ways that could have vast consequences – not only for the Arctic region but for the world. ... We’re climate scientists who study how warming is influencing the water cycle and ecosystems. In a new study using historical data and sophisticated computer models of Earth’s climate and hydrology, we explored how climate change is altering Arctic rivers. ...”
Why a warming climate can bring bigger snowstorms
The ConversationMichael Rawlins
2022-02-02
Michael Rawlins writes about the effects of climate change on snowstorms. “The sharp increase in high-impact Northeast winter storms is an expected manifestation of a warming climate,” Rawlins says. “It’s another risk the U.S. will have to prepare for as extreme events become more common with climate change."
