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Dr. Natalie Chen - University of Warwick. Coventry, , GB

Dr. Natalie Chen Dr. Natalie Chen

Associate Professor, Economics | University of Warwick


Natalie Chen is an expert in international trade, macroeconomics, and economics.






Spotlight on: Dr Natalie Chen | Intuition in Economics



Areas of Expertise (6)


International Macroeconomics


International Economics

International Trade


Education (3)

Université Libre de Bruxelles: M.Sc., Economics

Université Libre de Bruxelles: B.Sc., Economics

Université Libre de Bruxelles: Ph.D., Economics

Affiliations (3)

  • Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • CAGE Research Association
  • CESifo

Selected Articles (5)

Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

CESifo Working Paper No. 7695

2019 Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter’s currency. We then study the relationship between invoicing currency choices and the response of import prices to exchange rate changes. We find that for transactions invoiced in a vehicle currency, import prices are much more sensitive to changes in the vehicle currency than in the bilateral exchange rate. Pass-through therefore substantially increases once we account for vehicle currencies. Our results help to explain the higher-than-expected pass-through into import prices during the Great Recession and after the EU referendum. Finally, within a theoretical framework we conceptualize an omitted variable bias arising in estimating pass-through with only bilateral exchange rates under vehicle currency pricing. Overall, our results contribute to understanding the disconnect between exchange rates and prices.

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Quality and the Great Trade Collapse

Journal of Development Economics

2018 We investigate theoretically and empirically the heterogeneous effects of the global financial crisis on international trade flows differentiated by quality. Our model, which identifies the effect of quality on trade that arises on the demand side, through the relationship between income and quality choice, predicts that a negative income shock disproportionately reduces the demand for higher relative to lower quality traded goods (a “flight from quality”). Using a unique dataset of firm-level wine exports for an emerging market economy, Argentina, combined with experts wine ratings as a measure of quality, we find strong evidence of a flight from quality as we show that the values, volumes, unit values, and markups of higher quality exports contracted more sharply during the crisis. Our results imply that the exports of countries producing higher quality goods are likely to collapse more severely during recessions.

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The prices of higher quality goods respond less to exchange-rate movements

VOX CEPR Policy Portal

2014 Empirical research finds that import prices do not fully adjust to exchange-rate changes. In other word, there is a limited response of trade to exchange-rate fluctuations. This column argues that part of this pass-through puzzle is explained by quality. Exchange-rate movements are more strongly absorbed into the export prices of higher quality goods. Therefore, the volume of their exports would be less responsive to exchange-rate shocks, leading to an incomplete exchange-rate pass-through.

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On the measurement of trade costs: direct vs. indirect approaches to quantifying standards and technical regulations

World Trade Review

2012 In this article, we review the literature on the measurement of trade costs in international trade with a special emphasis on non-tariff measures and in particular on standards and technical regulations. We distinguish ‘direct’ from ‘indirect’ approaches. The direct approach collects observable data or proxy variables on trade cost components which are then typically used as regressors in a gravity equation of trade. Instead, the indirect approach infers the extent of trade impediments from trade flows. It compares actual trade flows to the trade flows predicted by a hypothetical frictionless benchmark scenario based on a micro-founded trade model, attributing the deviation of actual from predicted trade flows to trade frictions. We argue that economists and policy-makers can gain useful insights from both approaches.

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Multi-Trait Matching and Intergenerational Mobility: A Cinderella Story

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8605

2011 Empirical studies of intergenerational social mobility have found that women are more mobile than men. To explain this finding, we describe a model of multi-trait matching and inheritance, in which individuals’ attractiveness in the marriage market depends on their market and non-market characteristics. We show that the observed gender differences in social mobility can arise if market characteristics are relatively more important in determining marriage outcomes for men than for women and are more persistent across generations than non-market characteristics. Paradoxically, the female advantage in social mobility may be due to their adverse treatment in the labor market. A reduction in gender discrimination in the labor market leads to an increase in homogamy in the marriage market, lowering social mobility for both genders.

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