Nicholas Mangee is an associate professor of finance in the Parker College of Business at Georgia Southern University – Armstrong Campus in Savannah, Georgia, and a research associate for the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) program on Knightian Uncertainty Economics (KUE) for financial markets. He has published in the Journal of Behavioral Finance, Journal of Economics and Finance, Economics: E-Journal, Journal of Economic Methodology and Economics Bulletin. His research focuses on testing the implications of macro-finance models based on KUE by investigating the relative roles and dynamics between market fundamentals, psychology, and social context in explaining instability in stock price fluctuations. In 2017, he received the Outstanding Faculty Award for his College. Mangee earned his doctoral degree at the University of New Hampshire. Research from his dissertation has received attention from financial press outlets such as The Economist and Bloomberg News and has been featured prominently in the book Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State—a 2011 finalist for the Paul Samuelson Prize. He has also written over 50 columns on current economic and financial events for the Savannah Morning News city paper.
Areas of Expertise (5)
History of Thought
Financial Time Series
Outstanding Faculty Award (professional)
2016/17 College of Liberal Arts, Armstrong State University
Elizabeth Bogan Award for Highest Scholarship (professional)
2006/07 Dept. of Econ., Univ. of New Hampshire
Outstanding Graduate Student Teaching Award (professional)
2008/09 Dept. of Economics, Univ. of New Hampshire
Teaching Assistant of the Year (professional)
2006/07 Dept. of Economics, University of New Hampshire
Ph.D.: University of New Hampshire, Economics with Cognate in College Teaching 2011
Certificate: University of Copenhagen, Advanced Macroeconometrics 2012
M.A.: University of New Hampshire, Economics 2007
B.A.: St. Lawrence University, Economics/Mathematics 2006
- Omicron Delta Epsilon, International Honors Society for Economics
Media Appearances (1)
Mangee: Dodd-Frank tough to dismantle
Savannah Morning News online
The stringencies of financial regulation put into law following the global financial crisis, commonly known as the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, are being explicitly targeted for repeal by the new administration.
Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the PandemicJournal of Risk and Financial Management
This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which KU events are associated with directionally similar expectations of future returns.
How Market Sentiment Drives Forecasts of Stock ReturnsJournal of Behavioral Finance
We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, if good (bad) “news” about dividends and interest rates coincides with participants’ optimism (pessimism), the news about these fundamentals has a significant effect on participants’ forecasts of future returns and has the expected signs (positive for dividends and negative for interest rates).
A New Explanation for Samuelson’s Dictum and the Stock Market: Novel Events and Knightian UncertaintySeries of Unsurprising Results in Economics
Samuelson’s Dictum argues that aggregate stock markets do not convincingly reflect information on fundamentals, such as dividends or earnings, and are, thus, inefficient in setting prices. By contrast, firm-level stock prices share a much closer connection with fundamentals and are, therefore, deemed relatively efficient.
A Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Stock Price Models: Fundamentals, Psychology and Structural ChangeJournal of Behavioral Finance
This paper provides an empirical investigation of leading models of stock price fluctuations, including those based on canonical present value and behavioral considerations. It uses the cointegrated VAR framework to test the models’ competing predictions concerning the roles of fundamentals, psychology, and structural change in driving fluctuations.
Stock Returns and the Tone of Marketplace Information: Does Context Matter?Journal of Behavioral Finance
The author provides empirical evidence that marketplace context matters for understanding stock price behavior. Investor sentiment, as measured by the informational tone of stock market reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News outlets, is compared across 2 classification dictionaries: the Harvard General Inquirer IV-4 dictionary and the financial context-specific dictionary of Loughran and McDonald .