Nicholas Z. Muller

Professor Carnegie Mellon University

  • Pittsburgh PA

Nicholas Muller works at the intersection of environmental policy and economics.

Contact

Carnegie Mellon University

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Biography

Nicholas Z. Muller works at the intersection of environmental policy and economics. His interdisciplinary research projects focus on estimating individual discount rates and risk preferences using historical pricing data, comparing air pollution and climate damages from electric vehicles to conventional vehicles, estimating air pollution damage from energy production, measuring the impact of transporting freight in the United State on air pollution and climate, and analyzing the inequality in market and augmented measures of income.

Areas of Expertise

Economics
Air Pollution
Environmental Policy
Freight Transportation
Market Inequality

Media Appearances

Wildfire smoke associated with 20,000 premature deaths and billions in damages

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette  online

2025-05-04

CMU scientists project that wildfires were associated with 20,000 premature deaths and $200 billion in damages across the country in 2017. “These [air pollution] damages from wildfires are comparable to the [air pollution damages] from the entire manufacturing sector in the U.S., which is staggering,” said Nicholas Muller (Tepper School of Business)

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Wildfire smoke and prescribed burns caused 20,000 early deaths and billions in damages in just one year

MSN  online

2025-04-09

A new study led by Nicholas Muller (Tepper School of Business) estimates that wildfire and prescribed burn smoke caused $200 billion in health damages and 20,000 premature deaths in 2017, with senior citizens and marginalized communities suffering the most.

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Regulators underrate air pollution mortality by $100B, ignore racial gaps: study

The Hill  online

2021-12-21

“Underlying mortality rates, pollution exposure and pollution vulnerability differ significantly across racial and ethnic groups,” Nicholas Z. Muller, study co-author and a professor of economics, engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business, said in a statement.

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Social

Industry Expertise

Energy
International Trade and Development
Air Freight/Courier Services

Accomplishments

United States Environmental Protection Agency Scientific and Technological Achievement Award, Level II

2013

Education

Yale University

Ph.D.

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics

2007

Indiana University

M.P.A.

Environmental Policy & Public Financial Administration

2002

University of Oregon

B.S.

Public Policy, Planning and Management

1996

Affiliations

  • Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation

Articles

Marginal abatement costs for greenhouse gas emissions in the United States using an energy systems approach

Environmental Research Energy

2025

Deep decarbonization requires fundamental changes in meeting energy service demands, with some efforts increasing overall costs. Examining abatement measures in isolation, however, fails to capture their interactive effects within the energy system. Here we show the abatement costs of decarbonization in the United States using an energy system optimization model to capture technological interactions, multi-decadal path dependence, and endogenous end-use technology selection. Energy-system-wide net-zero CO2-eq emissions are achieved in 2050 at a cost under $400 per tonne CO2-eq, led by emissions reductions in power generation, end-use electrification of ground transportation, space heating, and some industrial applications. Differences in mitigation costs and CO2 geological storage potential lead to regional heterogeneities in mitigation rates and residual emissions. The marginal abatement cost curves show that additional decarbonization comes at higher incremental costs, this cost penalty decreases over time, and substantially greater abatement occurs in future time periods at the same abatement cost.

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Socially vulnerable communities face disproportionate exposure and susceptibility to US wildfire and prescribed burn smoke

Communications Earth & Environment

2025

While air pollution from most U.S. sources has decreased, emissions from wildland fires have risen. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that wildfire and prescribed burn smoke caused $200 billion in health damages in 2017, associated with 20,000 premature deaths. Nearly half of this damage came from wildfires, predominantly in the West, with the remainder from prescribed burns, mostly in the Southeast. Our analysis reveals positive correlations between smoke exposure and various social vulnerability measures; however, when also considering smoke susceptibility, these disparities are systematically influenced by age. Senior citizens, who are disproportionately White, represented 16% of the population but incurred 75% of the damages. Nonetheless, within most age groups, Native American and Black communities experienced the greatest damages per capita. Our work highlights the extraordinary and disproportionate effects of the growing threat of fire smoke and calls for targeted, equitable policy solutions for a healthier future.

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The Role of Hydrogen in Decarbonizing US Iron and Steel Production

Environmental Science & Technology

2025

This study investigates the role of hydrogen as a decarbonization strategy for the iron and steel industry in the United States (U.S.) in the presence of an economy-wide net zero CO2 emissions target. Our analysis shows that hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2DRI) provides a cost-effective decarbonization strategy only under a relatively narrow set of conditions. Using today's best estimates of the capital and variable costs of alternative decarbonized iron and steelmaking technologies in a U.S. economy-wide simulation framework, we find that carbon capture technologies can achieve comparable decarbonization levels by 2050 and greater cumulative emissions reductions from iron and steel production at a lower cost. Simulations suggest hydrogen contributes to economy-wide decarbonization, but H2DRI is not the preferred use case for hydrogen in most scenarios. The average abatement cost for U.S. iron and steel production could be as low as $70/tonne CO2 with existing technologies plus carbon capture, while the cost with H2DRI rises to over $500/tonne CO2. We also find that IRA tax credits are insufficient to spur hydrogen use in steelmaking in our model and that a green steel production tax credit would need to be as high as $300/tonne steel to lead to sustained H2DRI use.

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