Simon Medcalfe, PhD

Professor Augusta University

  • Augusta GA

Dr. Simon Medcalfe is an economist with an emphasis on sports economics, social determinants of health, and the local economy.

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2 min

A Snapshot of the Local Economy: Simon Medcalfe on Growth, Risk, and What Comes Next

At Augusta University’s annual Economic Forecast Breakfast hosted by the James M. Hull College of Business, Simon Medcalfe, PhD, offered a grounded, data-driven look at how the local economy is performing — and what lies ahead. Speaking to business leaders, students and community stakeholders, Medcalfe emphasized the importance of distinguishing real economic growth from inflation-driven gains, noting that while the Augusta region continues to grow, it does so at a measured pace compared to national averages. His presentation framed the local economy as stable and resilient, but not immune to broader forces shaping the U.S. outlook. A key theme of Medcalfe’s remarks was the role of research, innovation and education in sustaining long-term economic health. He pointed to strong gains in research and development across Georgia and highlighted how university-based research directly contributes to regional economic output. According to Medcalfe, investment in knowledge creation remains one of the most reliable drivers of growth, reinforcing the value of higher education institutions as economic anchors. Simon Medcalfe, PhD, is an economist with an emphasis on sports economics, social determinants of health, and the local economy. View his profile At the same time, Medcalfe cautioned against complacency. While regional fundamentals remain solid, he stressed that uncertainty at the national level continues to pose risks. “However, uncertainty abounds in national macroeconomic policy that could negatively impact growth next year,” Medcalfe said, underscoring how unresolved fiscal decisions and policy shifts can ripple down to local economies. Still, his overall outlook balanced realism with optimism. Medcalfe concluded that the Augusta region — and Georgia more broadly — is positioned to weather uncertainty thanks to diversification, investment in early education, and continued research activity. “Overall, Augusta and Georgia are positioned well for economic growth in 2026 with a strong commitment to early childhood education, a diversified labor market and strong research and development,” he said. View the full article 'Annual Economic Forecast Breakfast offers snapshot of the local economy' here: For journalists covering regional economics, workforce development, higher education, or policy-driven growth trends, Simon Medcalfe, PhD, offers clear-eyed analysis rooted in data — and an ability to translate complex economic signals into insight that matters locally. Simon is available to speak with media simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Simon Medcalfe, PhD

3 min

Expert Perspective: Augusta University professor gives annual economic outlook for the region

For the 16th year, Augusta University’s Cree-Walker Chair and Professor of Economics in the Hull College of Business Simon Medcalfe, PhD, has given his analysis of the Augusta area economy. The biggest thing on the minds of many remains the possibility of a recession and the overall inflation nationwide. Medcalfe thinks it probably won’t look a lot different in 2024 as it did in 2023. If anything, there may be less of a chance of a recession. “I think the chances of recession have probably slipped a little. I think there’s less chance of a recession,” said Medcalfe. “Inflation is certainly still a concern. It’s running at 3.2%, which sounds kind of low, but because of the amount of inflation, we’ve had prices about 20% higher than two years ago, and it’s still a concern and still eating into people’s wages.” He indicated, looking at Google Trends and what people are searching, inflation is still a pretty high concern. As for the Augusta region, Medcalfe pointed out that Columbia County continues to see a population increase and will likely have the largest population in the area by the end of the decade on current trends. As you would expect, as the population grows, so too does the number of businesses. Looking at the different sectors of employment in the region, he said things haven’t really changed. The only sectors that have seen more than a 2% change in the share of total employment over the last 20 years are education and health services. Medcalfe also pointed out that the manufacturing industry has seen a sizable increase since 2014. He said it was the same time the Starbucks manufacturing facility arrived in South Augusta but didn’t say that was the exact reason for the increase, just a point of reference for the manufacturing industry increased ever since. “Manufacturing has showed a large increase over the last ten years or so, past post-COVID as well. So now manufacturing employment in the local area is at the highest it’s been since I’ve been here,” Medcafe said. Some research that Hull College is undertaking is the intersection of health care and business. He said it’s important to the economy in our region since Richmond, McDuffie and Burke counties all rank towards the bottom of county health rankings in Georgia. “One of the things we are looking at here in the business school and in the new School of Public Health is what are the factors that influence the population’s health but aren’t clinical? There’s a lot of things that impact people’s health. There’s socio-economic status, there’s the environment they live in, there’s education, there’s health behavior and all this kind of stuff. “About 25% of the research out of Hull College is now looking at health maps because it’s important. Not just the health of the population, but it then impacts the economy because we have a labor shortage and how much of that labor shortage is actually because some people can’t work,” said Medcalfe. Looking to know more?  We can help. Simon Medcalfe, PhD, is a highly regarded economics expert in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is an expert that can talk on the national economy, as well as Georgia. He is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Simon Medcalfe, PhD

3 min

Ask our expert - Economy, inflation and interest rates, where do we stand as we close in on the end of the year?

Everyone is keeping a close eye on the economy. Whether on a global scale or at the kitchen table it's a topic that is at the top of everybody's mind these day. Simon Medcalfe, PhD is  the Cree Walker Chair in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University and resident expert on the economy, and he shared his thoughts on where the economy stands as the final months of the year approach. Q: The Gross Domestic Product report was up, what should we take out of that? “The GDP was interesting because it was actually up. The first two quarters were negative growth, so the economy had shrank. This time, the growth figure came in at 2.6%, but closer reading suggested it was actually a worse reading then the negative readings we had because consumer spending by firms was essentially flat. The growth was seen in net exports or government spending or things like. Consumers were kind of pulling back a little, which is why earnings were a little lower as well.” Q: The economy needs to slow down a little, doesn’t it? “I mean, yes, if you’re thinking about the Fed, that’s what they are worried about right now, inflation, because the economy is so incredibly hot, particularly with regards to prices. They’re raising interest rates with the aim at slowing down the economy. Unemployment is historically very, very low, if not at record levels in different places, so we could probably sustain a little slowing of the economy without impacting the labor market too much and try to get this general inflation under control.” Q: The economy could use a little unemployment, it’s that kind of counter intuitive? “Some unemployment is not bad. Economist use to suggest in the long run, the natural rate of unemployment is about 5-6%. Now we have unemployment in the 2-3% range in places. We have a little bit of wiggle room to see that increase.” Q: What's the difference between frictional and structural unemployment? "Economist talk about frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment is more of a job match or job search problem. So it’s a lack of information. Structural unemployment is because of the changing nature of industry within an economy. An example being people working in textile manufacturing and it’s hard for them to go straight into computer science coding because they don’t have the skills. This is more long term than frictional and in some cases can be quite detrimental to regions and people.” Q: The Fed is likely to raise interest rate by .75%, are there signs of this slowing down? “I think they’ll start slowing that down over time, but I think their projection is about 4.6% and we’re like 3.25% now. They’re looking at all the economic indicators. Not looking at any one or two, but everything. They’re looking at inflation, and have different measure of that. They’re look at the breakdown of inflation like how much of it is due to the war in Ukraine, and what areas of the economy it may be impacting. They’re looking at the labor market, definitely looking at manufacturing output, etc. The one thing they don’t generally look at is financial markets. They would look at the housing market though and different sectors of the real economy, not the financial economy.” Dr. Simon Medcalfe is a highly regarded economics expert in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is available to speak with media regarding the economy and its outlook – simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

Simon Medcalfe, PhD
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Biography

Medcalfe is a Professor of Economics and Finance in the James M. Hull College of Business at Augusta University. He holds a Ph.D. in business and economics from Lehigh University in Bethlehem, PA and a Master of Science degree in finance from Leicester University in England. He has published academic articles in the areas of sports and health economics and economic education as well as contributing to labor economics and entrepreneurial finance textbooks.

Areas of Expertise

Community and Economic Development
Social Determinants of Health
Sports Economics

Accomplishments

Educational Innovation Award

Office of Faculty Development and Teaching Excellence, 2018

Outstanding Faculty Award

James M. Hull College of Business, 2018

Distinguished Service Award

The Graduate School, Augusta University, 2016

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Education

Lehigh University

Ph.D.

Business/Managerial Economics

2006

University of Leicester

M.S.

Finance, General

1998

University of Leicester

B.A.

Economics, General

1991

Media Appearances

Multi-million dollar hiring plan

Augusta Business Daily  online

2024-03-13

One of the Augusta area’s largest employers is hanging out the “Help Wanted” sign. Augusta University’s targeted student enrollment growth means the university itself needs to grow.

Just over $6 million will be allocated for the immediate addition of 43 new faculty, 24 new full-time staff, two temporary positions, and 42 new student-worker positions. A portion will be used to add infrastructure supporting the new hires.

The university needs additional faculty and staff after notching a student enrollment of 10,546 for fall 2023. That is a 7.5% increase over fall 2022.

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Peering into the economic outlook crystal ball

Augusta Business Daily  online

2023-12-08

Augusta University (AU) continued a longtime tradition of putting a spotlight on the area economy over the past year and predictions for the coming year.

Dr. Simon Medcalfe led the university’s annual Economic Forecast breakfast on Thursday.

Medcalfe, a professor of economics at AU and contributor for the Augusta Business Daily, began with an overview of changes in types of business, percentage of employment, and population growth.

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AU Economics professor, Augusta/Aiken staffing company speak on inflation

WJBF  tv

2023-09-15

The rate of inflation remains high in the U.S., and it continues to impact businesses and consumers in our area.

Augusta University Economics Professor Simon Medcalfe said recent interest rate increases are meant to discourage spending and lower the inflation rate.

But it could be years until we start seeing see those impacts.

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Answers

How has the chances for a recession changed in the last three months? 
Simon Medcalfe, PhD

“I think the chances of recession have probably slipped a little. I think there’s less chance of a recession. Inflation is certainly still a concern. It’s running at 3.2%, which sounds kind of low, but because of the amount of inflation, we’ve had prices about 20% higher than two years ago, and it’s still a concern and still eating into people’s wages.”

Continue reading
What's the difference between frictional and structural unemployment?
Simon Medcalfe, PhD

"Economist talk about frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Frictional unemployment is more of a job match or job search problem. So it’s a lack of information. Structural unemployment is because of the changing nature of industry within an economy.An example being people working in textile manufacturing and it’s hard for them to go straight into computer science coding because they don’t have the skills. This is more long term than frictional and in some cases can be quite detrimental to regions and people.”

Continue reading
The economy needs to slow down a little, doesn’t it?
Simon Medcalfe, PhD

“I mean, yes, if you’re thinking about the Fed, that’s what they are worried about right now, inflation, because the economy is so incredibly hot, particularly with regards to prices. They’re raising interest rates with the aim at slowing down the economy. Unemployment is historically very, very low, if not at record levels in different places, so we could probably sustain a little slowing of the economy without impacting the labor market too much and try to get this general inflation under control.”

Continue reading
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Articles

Composite Index Ranking of Economic Well-Being in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: How Prevalent are Rank Anomalies?

Social Indicators Research

2021

Composite indicators have the advantage of summarizing complex multi-dimensional concepts in a single measurement. They also suffer from disadvantages such as subjectivity in choice of indicators, weighting, and aggregation methods. In this paper, we update Medcalfe’s Economic Well-Being (EWB) index of US Metropolitan Statistical Areas with the latest (2017) available data.

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Sustainable practices and financial performance in fashion firms

Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management

2021

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between sustainable practices and financial performance in fashion firms. A statistical analysis (fixed effects and ordinary least squares) of publicly available financial data combined with sustainable practices taken from the Baptist World Aid Australia Ethical Fashion Reports to determine if companies with better sustainable practices have significantly better financial performance.

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Racial Segregation as a Social Determinant of Health: Evidence from the State of Georgia

Journal of the Georgia Public Health Association

2020

Despite decades of research, determining the causes of racial disparities in health remains a pernicious problem in the public health arena. Challenges include further refining definitions of health as well as expanding frameworks for social determinants of health to include relevant and related predictors. Racial segregation as a social determinant of health is understudied but of growing interest in the discourse on health disparities.

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