Drops in the Bank of Canada rate will not solve housing affordability.

Spoiler Alert: The problem isn't just about interest rates

Dec 11, 2024

7 min

Summary: The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts won’t resolve Canada’s housing affordability crisis. Factors such as skyrocketing home prices, unaffordable down payments, and stagnant wage growth are other primary challenges to address.  A personal example offered by the author shows how the price of her Toronto home surged over 1,000% from 1983 and 2024 while her wages during the same period rose only 142%. While some see this issue as a consequence of Baby Boomers remaining in their homes, it's more nuanced than that.  We have systemic barriers in Canada that necessitate targeted policy changes. It’s time to tackle affordability and implement effective solutions.


The Bank of Canada met today, to determine interest rates for the last time this year. They announced a drop of .50 basis points. This is part of a broader effort to stimulate economic growth in Canada, which faces challenges, especially a softening labor market and persistent inflation. 


Why Should You Care?


Interest rates determine how affordable our debt will be and what return we can expect on our savings. Since mortgages represent most consumer debt, interest rates directly impact affordable housing costs, making them very newsworthy. However, interest rates only tell part of the story.


When the Bank of Canada lowers its rate, it primarily impacts variable-rate mortgages. These are tied directly to the BoC's overnight rate, so a rate cut can reduce the interest costs on these loans. Homeowners with variable rates would likely see a reduction in their payments, with more of their payments going toward principal rather than interest. People without debt and savings (primarily seniors) will see a drop in their investment returns.


In contrast, fixed-rate mortgages, which are not directly tied to the BoC's rate, are influenced more by the bond market, particularly the 5-year government bond yield. The current trend in bond yields suggests that fixed mortgage rates could also decrease over time.


Let’s pause here and talk about the affordability of houses and how interest rates are not the reason housing is out of reach for most first-time buyers.


A walk down memory lane might offer some perspective.


I purchased my first home in the fall of 1983 for $63,500 (insert head shake). I was 27 years old, and before you do the math, yes, I am a Baby Boomer. My first serious (so I thought) live-together relationship had just ended, and I was looking for a place to live. I had finished school and had a good full-time job with Bell Canada. A rental would have been preferred, except I had a dog. Someone suggested that I buy a home. I did not know very much about purchasing real estate or homeownership, for that matter. But I was young and willing to learn.


I had been working full-time for two and a half years. During my orientation at Bell Canada, my supervisor told me to sign up for their stock option program. She said I would never miss the money or regret signing up for the plan. She was right. When I purchased my home, there was enough money in my stock account for a down payment and closing costs. My interest rate was a terrifying 12.75%, yielding a mortgage payment of just under $670 monthly. The lender deemed this affordable based on my $18,000 annual wage. Life was good.


This was in 1983, when the minimum down payment for a home purchase in Canada was typically 10% for most buyers. However, a lower down payment could be possible with mortgage insurance (provided by organizations like Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC), which allowed buyers to put down as little as 5%, provided they qualified for insurance. This was commonly available for homes under $150,000, with stricter terms for higher-priced homes.


If you had a higher down payment of 25% or more, mortgage insurance wasn't required, and you could avoid extra costs associated with insured mortgages. This was part of broader efforts by the government to make homeownership more accessible, especially amid the high interest rates of the time.


So let's do the math. Circa 1983

I first needed to prove that I had saved $3,175 in down payments and $953 in closing costs for $4128. In the 2.5 years I worked at Bell Canada, I saved $4,050 (including Bell Canada’s contribution) in stocks. I also had another $5,000 in my savings account. $9,000 was enough to complete the transaction and leave me with a healthy safety net.


Fast forward to 2024

Let’s compare what the same transaction would look like today. Using the annual housing increase cited on the CREA website, the same house would be valued at approximately $700,000 today. Interest rates are much lower today, at 4.24%, yielding a mortgage payment of $3,545.


1. The down payment rules have changed. For the first $500,000, The minimum down payment is 5%. 5% X 500,000=25,0005\% \times 500,000 = 25,0005% X 500,000 = $25,000


2. The minimum down payment for the portion above $500,000 is 10%.

10% X (700,000−500,000) = 20,00010\% \times (700,000 - 500,000) = 20,00010% X (700,000−500,000) = $20,000


3. Total minimum down payment:

25,000+20,000 =4 5,00025,000 + 20,000 = 45,00025,000+20,000 = $45,000


Thus, the minimum down payment for a $700,000 home is $45,000.


Here is the comparison:


1983 Scenario                                              2024 Scenario                                  Variance


Purchase Price: $63,500                               $700,000                                           up 1002%

Down Payment: $3,175                                 $45,000                                             up 1317%

Loan Amount: $60,325                                  $655,000                                           up 986%

Interest Rate: 12.75%                                   4.24%                                                down 200%

Monthly Mortgage Payment: $670                $3,545                                               up 429%

Wage: $18,000                                             $43,500                                              up 142%

Gross Debt Service Ratio: 44.6%                 97.8%                                                up 119%


Time to Save for Down payment:

2 years                                                           12.4 years                                        up 520%


*Please note that this example does not include mortgage insurance


The real problem

As you can see, housing was much more affordable for me in 1983 and far from cheap in 2024. During the past 41 years, wages have increased by 142%, yet interest rates have dropped by 200%. But the most significant impact on affordability has been the over 1,000% increase in housing prices.


So why is all the focus on interest rates?


At the risk of oversimplifying a complicated issue, I believe the media often uses interest rates as a "shiny penny" to capture attention, diverting focus from deeper housing affordability issues. This keeps the spotlight on inflation and monetary policy, aligning with economic agendas while ignoring systemic problems like down payment barriers and the shortage of affordable homes.


Indeed, a movement in interest rates often has an immediate and noticeable impact on borrowers' affordability, making it a hot topic for news and policymakers. However, the frequency and consistency of the Bank of Canada meetings on interest rates give the impression that rates are the primary issue, even though they are just one part of a complex system. For example, even if the Bank of Canada dropped interest rates below zero, it would do little to solve today’s homeownership affordability issue.


The real problems:


1. Down Payment Challenges: With housing prices skyrocketing, the 5%- 20% down payment required has become insurmountable for many, particularly younger buyers. High rents, stagnant wage growth relative to home prices, and rising living costs make saving nearly impossible.


2. Lack of Affordable Starter Homes: Due to profitability and zoning restrictions, housing developments often prioritize larger, higher-margin homes or luxury condos over affordable single-family starter homes.


3. Misplaced Generational Blame: Blaming Baby Boomers for "holding onto homes" oversimplifies the issue. They are staying put due to limited downsizing options, emotional attachments, or the need for housing stability in retirement, not a desire to thwart younger generations.


4. Political Challenges: Addressing structural issues like zoning reform or incentivizing affordable housing construction requires political will and collaboration, which can be slow and contentious.


A broader lens is needed to understand and address the actual barriers to home ownership. Interest drops are merely a band-aid solution that misses the central issue of saving a down payment.


The suggestion that we have an intergenerational issue needs to be revised. The fact that Baby Boomers are holding on to their homes should not surprise anyone. However, Real Estate models that predicted copious numbers of Baby Boomers selling their homes to downsize got it wrong. Downsizing was a concept conceived in the 1980s. Unfortunately, it did not account for record-setting home price increases or inflation, leaving it undesirable for today’s seniors.


Although this is a complex issue, a few suggested solutions are worth exploring.


What can be done?


Focus on Policy Innovations:


To create housing, increase supply, curb speculative investments, and provide targeted assistance for builders to build modest starter homes.


To create rentals, homeowners should also receive income tax incentives to build Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs). These could be used as affordable rentals or to house caregivers for senior homeowners. Today, The federal government announced a doubling of its Secondary Suite Loan Program, initially unveiled in the April 2024 budget. This is a massive step in the right direction.


To create down payments, adopt a policy allowing first-time home buyers to avoid paying tax on their first $250,000 of income. Then, they could use the tax savings as a down payment.


Focus on Education and Advocacy:


Include a warning that helps consumers understand that withdrawing from RSPs results in a significant loss of compound interest related to withdrawals and how this can harm income during retirement.


Encourage early inheritance to create gifted down payments. Normalize the concept by emphasizing the benefits to the giver and the receiver.


Educate the public on using financial equity safely and create down payments as an early inheritance for their heirs. This will shift the conversation and initiate an intergenerational transfer of wealth that empowers the next generation to own a home.


The Bottom Line

While the Bank of Canada interest rate cut may ease some financial strain for homeowners with variable-rate mortgages, it will do little to address the core issue of housing affordability. The media's fixation on interest rates as a "shiny penny" distracts from more profound systemic barriers, such as the inability to save for a down payment and the lack of affordable housing stock. These challenges require targeted policies, structural reforms, and intergenerational collaboration to be tackled effectively.


The focus must shift from short-term rate adjustments to long-term solutions that prioritize accessibility and affordability in housing. Without meaningful action, homeownership will remain out of reach for many, perpetuating the cycle of financial inequity across generations.


Dont't Retire... Re-Wire!


Sue



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8 min

Canada’s Retirement Problem Is Not “Boomer Luxury Communism”

A recent Washington Post column by Pulitzer Prize-winner George F. Will caught my attention. A prominent American conservative warns about a demographic apocalypse. Normal Monday. His argument: an aging population and a politically powerful senior cohort are driving unsustainable government spending, leaving younger generations to foot the bill. He even has a name for it: “Boomer Luxury Communism.” (Does George Will need a Snickers bar?) It made me wonder: are the same forces reshaping retirement here in Canada? I’ve heard the generational accusations. Boomers took the good pensions. Boomers drove up housing. Boomers left the mess. Boomers won’t move and sell me their house. But here’s the thing. Boomers don’t have a case of “Pierre don’t care.” Most of them are quietly terrified. After 25 years in financial services and a decade sitting across kitchen tables from Canadians over 55, I think the story is a lot more complicated than that. According to Statistics Canada data, nearly one in five Canadians (19.5%) is now aged 65 or older, representing more than eight million people nationwide, signalling significant growth in the demographic. Retirement itself has also changed dramatically. Fewer Canadians have access to defined benefit pensions. Costs are rising, from groceries to housing to healthcare. And most people want to remain in their homes as they age. The result is straightforward: retirement is lasting longer, costing more, and relying more heavily on individuals than ever before. That much we share with the United States.  But the Canadian reality is more complicated. Canada’s Seniors Are Not Living the Way Many People Assume Where the comparison begins to break down is in how we interpret what’s happening. The idea that Canadian seniors are broadly living comfortably at the expense of younger generations simply doesn’t match what I see in practice. In fact, many older Canadians are experiencing something quite different: Financial uncertainty. Despite having significant assets.  On paper, many retirees look secure. They may own their home outright. They may have some savings and receive income from programs like CPP and OAS. But much of that wealth is tied up in housing. Families led by someone aged 65 or older now have a median net worth exceeding $1.1 million, the highest of any age group. (Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Financial Security) Yet the same data also reveals something important: The value of the principal residence for many seniors far exceeds their retirement savings. Many Canadians are increasingly finding themselves asset-rich on paper but cash-flow constrained in practice. The Rise of FORO: Fear of Running Out When you look more closely at the financial picture for many retirees, income streams are often modest and heavily exposed to inflationary pressures. Longevity adds another layer of uncertainty: A Canadian reaching age 65 today can expect to live another 20 years on average. Longevity is, of course, a triumph of modern society, although financially speaking, it has a way of extending the spreadsheet. Which leads to a question I hear repeatedly around the kitchen table: “Will I have enough money to retire?” This concern is so common that I’ve written extensively about it as FORO: "Fear of Running Out." It shows up in everyday decisions. Let’s call balls and strikes: FORO is real, and left unchecked, FORO thinking gets calcified into a permanent crouch. It’s cautious, it’s understandable — and it can quietly cost you your retirement. Worse than an ill-timed "reply all" to a company-wide email. • People delay travel • They hesitate to help their family. • They postpone home repairs • They underspend, even when they may not need to. I’ve met people who won’t replace a 20-year-old furnace because they’re saving money for an emergency. The furnace failing IS the emergency. This is not reckless consumption.  It’s cautious financial restraint. A recent Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan Retirement survey found that nearly half of Canadians approaching retirement worry about outliving their savings. Other research from Fidelity Canada shows that many retirees spend less than they comfortably could because they fear future financial shocks or healthcare costs. This anxiety matters because retirement is not just a math problem. It is also a confidence problem. This Isn’t Boomer Excess. It’s a System That Shifted What’s happening in Canada is not primarily a story of overconsumption by retirees. It is the result of a long-term structural shift. Canadians are living longer than ever. In fact, the number of Canadians over age 85 - already one of the country’s fastest-growing demographic groups, is projected to nearly triple over the next 25 years. (Source: National Institute on Aging) Over the past several decades, pensions have disappeared. Employers steadily moved away from guaranteed pensions while individuals assumed far greater responsibility for funding their own retirement years. Defined benefit pension coverage has declined significantly in the private sector, particularly among younger workers, leaving more Canadians to manage retirement risk on their own. The CD Howe Institute has written extensively on this topic, calling for pension reform. At the same time, housing became the country’s dominant store of wealth.  For many Canadians, rising home values created the impression of growing financial security. But the current housing environment is far more complicated.  Now, real estate markets have become less liquid. Some regions are now seeing much softer housing prices after years of extraordinary growth. Cue the song, "Those were the days, my friend, we thought they'd never end." The result is a retirement system increasingly dependent on housing wealth, whether policymakers openly acknowledge it or not. Government is beginning to feel the financial pinch as well. A recent report from the C.D. Howe Institute estimated that demographic aging alone could create more than $2 trillion in long-term fiscal pressure for provincial governments, driven largely by healthcare and age-related spending. In the mid-1970s, there were nearly seven working-age Canadians for every retiree (Source: Statistics Canada). Today, that ratio has fallen to closer to three-to-one.  It's a profound demographic shift that is placing growing pressure on labour markets, healthcare systems, and public finances. As retirements accelerate, fewer younger workers are available to replace them, reshaping the country’s economic and fiscal balance. Even high levels of immigration are unlikely to fully offset Canada’s aging challenge over the long term. These pressures are real. But the Canadian story is still more complicated than the increasingly combative generational narratives emerging in the United States. Retirement Became a DIY Project Over time, we slowly moved away from a system that delivered predictable retirement income. Now we ask individuals to assemble their own retirement strategy from scratch. Choose your own adventure: except the stakes are your retirement, and there’s no going back to page one. That shift created flexibility but also risk. And today, that risk is showing up as uncertainty. And while it's tempting to frame this as a generational issue, the more meaningful divide in Canada increasingly looks like this: • homeowners versus non-homeowners • those with pensions versus those without • those with access to advice versus those navigating alone Looking at the issue through this lens helps us better understand how we arrived at this point, and why it should serve as a wake-up call for consumers, policymakers, and the financial industry. Still not convinced?  Look at this data from the Statistics Canada Net Worth Report: Near-retirement households with both a workplace pension and homeownership had a median net worth exceeding $1.4 million. Remove those two structural advantages, however, and the financial picture changes dramatically: renters without pensions had a median wealth of less than $12,000. Let me stop and let this one land. Pause, breathe, and read on. The wealth gap, when you look at homeownership and pensions, is staggering. It reveals how profoundly retirement security in Canada is shaped not only by age but also by structural access to housing and pension systems. Two Canadians of the same age can now face entirely different retirement realities depending on just a few foundational variables. That’s not a generational conflict. It’s a serious design problem — a bug, not a feature. The Accumulation Paradox Here is another gap that rarely gets discussed. Canada has done a reasonably good job of helping people accumulate assets.  BUT We have done a much poorer job helping them convert those assets into sustainable income. This is especially true when it comes to housing. Research from the National Institute on Ageing and CMHC consistently shows that the overwhelming majority of older Canadians want to age in place rather than downsize or move into institutional care.  But Canada’s retirement system increasingly depends on housing wealth, even as many retirees remain reluctant to use it strategically. For many Canadians, home equity is their single largest financial resource. Yet, culturally and psychologically, it is often treated as something to preserve rather than deploy. The result is what I call the Asset Accumulation Paradox: People can be asset-rich and cash-flow constrained at the same time, a perfect example of 2 things being true at the same time. That disconnect sits at the heart of much of the retirement anxiety we see today. Where Canada Stands Compared to the United States In some important ways, Canada is better positioned than the United States.  The Canada Pension Plan is actuarially reviewed and designed to remain sustainable over the long term. (Source: Office of the Chief Actuary). And according to International Monetary Fund data, Canada’s public debt burden also remains materially lower than that of the United States as a share of GDP. But that does not mean we can afford complacency. Because beneath the surface, there is a growing gap between what Canadians have and what they feel confident using. If we want to improve retirement outcomes, we need to focus less on assigning blame and more on improving design. That means better tools, better guidance, and more open conversations, especially about how to turn assets into income. The warnings coming out of the United States are worth paying attention to.  But Canada’s challenge is different. The risk is not that seniors are taking too much.It’s that too many Canadians are living with uncertainty despite having more options than they realize. The challenge now is not simply helping Canadians accumulate wealth. It is helping them use that wealth with greater confidence, flexibility, and security. So, let’s call this what it is. George Will is not entirely wrong. The numbers are real, the fiscal pressure is real, and yes, someone is going to have to deal with it. But the story he’s telling is a blunt instrument in a situation that requires a scalpel. Canada’s retirement challenge isn’t Boomer Luxury Communism. It’s more like Boomer Luxury Paralysis: sitting on a million-dollar asset, terrified to touch it, underspending in the present to guard against a future that may never arrive. FORO doesn’t discriminate by generation. It just quietly rearranges your life until you’re postponing the trip, skipping the furnace repair, and waiting for permission to enjoy the retirement you actually saved for. The good news? The options are better than most people think. The conversation isn’t about giving anything up. It’s about using what you already have. Sue Don't Retire...ReWire! My Book is Now Available for Pre-Order I hope you will consider pre-ordering a copy of Your Retirement Reset for you, a friend or loved one. It's available September 8, 2026 - You can now order on the ECW Press site here. And if you love supporting Canadian booksellers, please also check with your local independent bookstore. Most can easily order it for you.

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