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Global consulting firm J.S. Held reveals the “Lending Climate in America” survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The fourth quarter survey results highlight the persisting lender views on policy decisions and their national/global impacts.
The “Lending Climate in America” survey is administered quarterly to lenders from various commercial banks, finance companies, and factors across the country. We collect, tabulate, and analyze the results to create a complete evaluation of national attitudes and trends.
Phoenix’s Q4 2025 “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Forty-six percent of lenders think political uncertainty will have the strongest impact on the economy, while 41% of lenders believe geopolitical risk (war) has the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders continue to believe that the possibility of a U.S. recession and upcoming FOMC interest rate decisions will impact the economy.
Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Almost two-thirds of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will raise additional capital, while 30%+ of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will introduce new products and make acquisitions.
Forty-three percent of respondents identified the retail trade industry as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed by the healthcare (social assistance) industry at 38% of respondents.
Additionally, Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. For larger loan structures (greater than $25M), the plan to maintain loan structures remained relatively constant from Q3 to Q4, increasing by 9%. As loan sizes decrease, lenders plan to maintain their loan structures. Loans in the range of $15-25M and $5-15M saw very similar structure changes from Q3 to Q4. Loans under $5M had no change in structure.
Lender optimism in the U.S. economy decreased for the near term, moving from 2.58 in Q3 2025 to 2.38. In this current quarter, there is heavy expectation of a B level performance (49%), with a majority of the remainder (41%) sitting at a C level. Lender expectations for the U.S. economy’s performance in the longer term also decreased from 2.71 to 2.46. Of the lenders surveyed, 54% believe the U.S. economy will perform at a B level during the next twelve months, virtually no change from the prior quarter. Performance expectations at the D level increased by 5%, matching the increase at a C level.
To see the full results of Phoenix’s “Lending Climate in America” Survey, please visit:
“Lenders are signaling heightened caution as political uncertainty and geopolitical risks dominate near-term economic concerns,” says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Lead at J.S. Held. “Confidence in the U.S. economy continues to erode, with short-term grades slipping from a weighted average of 2.58 in Q3 to 2.38 in Q4, and long-term expectations following the same downward trend. While most lenders plan to maintain current loan structures, a notable 21% anticipate tightening terms, even as 77% expect further Fed rate cuts in the coming months. Industry volatility is projected to rise sharply in healthcare, consumer products, and finance, underscoring a challenging environment for borrowers and investors alike.”
To learn more about how our experts can add value to your stories in development, simply connect with Michael through his icon below.
Under current corporate accounting practices, artificial intelligence (AI) companies’ most valuable resources – large language models, training datasets, and algorithms – remain “off the books” or uncapitalized. As the importance of AI continues to grow in the global knowledge-based economy, financial statements are becoming less representative of a company’s true worth, creating a recognition gap.
In this article, James E. Malackowski, Eric Carnick, and David Ngo present several conceptual frameworks to bridge this gap. They explain how the triangulation of three valuation approaches can reveal both the tangible investment base and the intangible, strategic upside of AI assets. In turn, these approaches provide board-level visibility into where AI capital resides and how it contributes to enterprise value.
James E. Malackowski is the Chief Intellectual Property Officer (CIPO) of J.S. Held and Co-founder of Ocean Tomo, a part of J.S. Held. Mr. Malackowski has served as an expert on over one hundred occasions on intellectual property economics, including valuation, royalty, lost profits, price erosion, licensing terms, venture financing, copyright fair use, and injunction equities. He has substantial experience as a Board Director for leading technology corporations, research organizations, and companies with critical brand management issues. This article is the second installment in our three-part series, Artificial Intelligence as Intellectual Property or “AI as IP™”, which explores how artificial intelligence assets should be treated as a form of intellectual property and enterprise capital. The first article, “A Strategic Framework for the Legal Profession”, explored the legal foundations for recognizing and protecting AI assets. The upcoming third article, “Guide for SMEs to Classify, Protect, and Monetize AI Assets”, will provide practical steps for small and mid-sized enterprises to turn AI into measurable economic value.
To explore the topic further, simply connect with James through his icon below.
J.S. Held proudly celebrates the numerous industry and expert recognitions earned throughout 2025. As a global consulting firm, J.S. Held continues to be acknowledged for its deep financial, technical, and scientific expertise, with leading outlets highlighting the firm’s capabilities across investigations, risk advisory, forensics, turnaround and restructuring, business intelligence, and litigation support. The firm’s curated team of entrepreneurs — each with an unrivaled understanding of both tangible and intangible assets — reflects a collective strength that is recognized worldwide.
Beyond organizational achievements, J.S. Held’s experts received individual distinctions that further demonstrate their standing as leaders within their respective fields. Industry publications and ranking bodies honoured these specialists for excellence in arbitration, construction and engineering, environmental consulting, forensic accounting, investigations, litigation support, intellectual property, specialty finance, and a wide range of other highly specialized domains.
Together, these recognitions underscore J.S. Held’s commitment to delivering trusted insight and unparalleled expertise as clients navigate increasingly complex challenges. In a rapidly evolving business landscape, the firm remains dedicated to providing informed, innovative, and practical solutions that enable organizations to move forward with confidence.
Click on the link below to learn more about our recognition and respective areas of expertise:
Expert recognition by notable organizations serves as a further testament to J.S. Held's agile, collaborative, creative, and client-centric team, reflecting the trusted advisor role the firm has earned over the last 50 years.
For any media inquiries, contact:
Kristi L. Stathis, J.S. Held
+1 786 833 4864
Kristi.Stathis@JSHeld.com
