Featured Post from Florida Atlantic University

Data Analysis: Commercial Real Estate Troubles Threaten U.S. Banks

The U.S. banking system is on a precipice as exposures to commercial real estate grow and banks grapple with high interest rates, according to an analysis by a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University.

Mar 14, 2025

2 min

Rebel Cole, Ph.D.


CaptionResizeWrap TextRemove


The U.S. banking system is on a precipice as exposures to commercial real estate grow and banks grapple with high interest rates, according to an analysis by a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University.


Of the 158 largest banks, 59 in the country are facing exposures to commercial real estate greater than 300% of their total equity capital, as reported in the fourth quarter 2024 regulatory data and shown by the U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Commercial Real Estate screener.



“Regulators have been putting pressure on banks to reduce their exposures. However, it’s a very difficult thing to do without sending a signal of weakness to the market and creating more problems,” said Rebel A. Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “To get around this, many banks are ‘extending and pretending’ by restructuring their loans.”


The U.S. Banks’ Exposure to Risk from Real Estate screener, a part of the Banking Initiative at Florida Atlantic University, measures the risk to exposure from commercial real estate at the 158 largest banks in the country with more than $10 billion in total assets. Using publicly available data released quarterly from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) Central Data Repository, Cole calculates each bank’s total CRE exposure as a percentage of the bank’s total equity. Bank regulators view any ratio over 300% as excess exposure to CRE, which puts the bank at greater risk of failure.



Troubled debt restructuring for commercial construction, multifamily, owner-occupied and owner-non-occupied mortgages tripled since 2023. They reached $18 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $6 billion in Q2 2023, according to data from the FFIEC. While non-owner occupied nonfarm, non-residential accounts for more than half of these amounts, there is also serious deterioration in multifamily and commercial construction loans.


“Banks choose to extend these loans, hoping interest rates might drop. While the Fed did cut rates,” Cole said. “If a loan is maturing from five years ago in today’s rate environment, rather than refinance it with today’s terms, they will restructure the loan under the same terms from five years ago for another year. This all depends on interest rates falling, which is not likely to happen this year.”


Among banks of any size, 1,788 have total CRE exposures greater than 300%, up from 1,697 in Q3; 1,077 have exposures greater than 400%, up from 971 in Q3; 504 have exposures greater than 500%, up from 426 in Q3; 216 have exposures greater than 600%, up from 166 in Q3.


For comparison, the aggregate industry total CRE exposure is 132% of the total, unchanged from the third quarter of 2024.


Looking to know more? We can help.


Rebel Cole is available to speak with media about commercial real estate and the potential threats to the American banking system, Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.



Connect with:
Rebel Cole, Ph.D.

Rebel Cole, Ph.D.

Lynn Eminent Scholar Endowed Professor of Finance

Rebel Cole, Ph.D., is a former fed staff economist and an expert in financial institutions, real estate, and small-businesses.

Small Business FinanceFinancial InstitutionsCommercial BankingCorporate GovernanceReal Estate

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Florida Atlantic University

1 min

As the Gaza City ground offensive has begun - FAU has a leading expert on the region

Israel has launched a massive ground incursion into Gaza City.  Aiming to destroy what the Israeli government has said is one of the last remaining Hamas strongholds. The offensive will escalate further fighting as the Israeli military indicated this current attempt to remove Hamas strongholds could take months. The attack on Gaza City has drawn criticism from allies of Israel who are seeking to see a stop the fighting and see peace in a region. Media are also watching - and looking looking for experts like Florida Atlantic's Robert Rabil who has been commenting and contributing on this topic since the conflict began almost two years ago. Florida Atlantic University's political science professor, Robert Rabil Ph. D. is a star expert in political Islam, terrorism, U.S. foreign policy, and U.S.-Arab relations.  His expertise has appeared in major newspapers and academic journals, including the Wall Street Journal, Chicago-Sun Times, Daily Star (Beirut), History News Network, National Interest, CNN, Middle East Journal, Middle East Policy, the Journal of International Security Affairs, Middle East Quarterly, and Middle East Review of International Affairs. He has also contributed several book chapters on political Islam and Middle Eastern politics. Rabil is available to speak with media. Simply click on Rabil’s icon now to arrange an interview today.

3 min

Ahead of Back-to-School, FAU’s Dr. Sameer Hinduja Says Instilling Hope in Teens Can Shield Them from Bullying – Online and Off

Dr. Sameer Hinduja is one of the world’s foremost experts on cyberbullying, adolescent mental health, and digital safety. A Professor at Florida Atlantic University’s School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Co-Director of the Cyberbullying Research Center, he has advised the White House, testified before federal agencies, and worked with schools and tech companies worldwide to protect young people online. View Full Profile→ Amid the U.S. youth mental health crisis, his latest peer-reviewed study, published through FAU Newsdesk, reveals that hope not only boosts well-being and academic achievement but also acts as a powerful shield against bullying and cyberbullying in adolescents. Results, published in the journal Frontiers in Sociology, show that students with less hope were 56% more likely to cyberbully others than their peers over their lifetime, and 57% more likely over the last 30 days. Those with more hope were 36% less likely to cyberbully others over their lifetime and over the last 30 days when compared to their peers with lower levels of hope. The key takeaway? Hope matters. It buffers against the urge to aggress against others online and off. “Hope acts as a powerful protective factor against both school bullying and cyberbullying among youth,” said Sameer Hinduja, Ph.D., lead author, a professor in the School of Criminology and Criminal Justice within FAU’s College of Social Work and Criminal Justice, co-director of the Cyberbullying Research Center, and a faculty associate at the Berkman Klein Center at Harvard University. “When young people believe in their ability to set meaningful goals and stay motivated to reach them, they are far less likely to lash out or harm others. Hope gives them a sense of direction – and that can make all the difference.” Hinduja's previous research has been featured in The Washington Post, where he emphasized that cyberbullying is not just emotionally distressing—it can cause trauma responses in teens that mirror clinical Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. “As our research clearly shows, cyberbullying in any form — whether it’s exclusion from a group chat or direct threats — can lead to significant trauma in youth,” Sameer Hinduja, a professor in Florida Atlantic University’s School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and the paper’s lead author, said in a news release. “We were surprised to find that no single type of cyberbullying caused more harm than others; all carried a similar risk of traumatic outcomes. This means we can’t afford to dismiss or trivialize certain behaviors as ‘less serious’ — being left out or targeted by rumors can be just as detrimental as more overt attacks.” Why This Matters Now As students return to school this fall, Hinduja’s research offers a clear reminder: digital harm is real harm. Emotional safety in online environments deserves the same urgency as physical safety in school buildings. His work calls for: • Preventive education over punitive responses • Trauma-informed approaches in schools • Support systems that validate and protect victims • Tech accountability and policy reform   ⸻ Dr. Hinduja is available for media interviews on topics such as: Adolescent Mental Health • Cyberbullying • PTSD • Digital Safety • School Culture Click on the icon below to connect.

1 min

North Atlantic Sargassum Bloom Hits Record Levels – and Florida is Feeling the Surge, One Expert Says

Dr. Brian LaPointe, Research Professor at Florida Atlantic University’s Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, is one of the nation’s most recognized experts on marine ecosystems. His work spans algal physiology, biochemistry, biodiversity, and coastal conservation — with more than a decade of dedicated research focused on the rise and impact of sargassum blooms across the Atlantic. LaPointe confirmed that sargassum levels in the North Atlantic have hit a new biomass record — and much of it is now washing ashore across South Florida’s coastlines. The scale of this bloom, he says, could have lasting consequences for marine ecosystems, tourism, and public health. LaPointe recently spoke to CNN about why this record bloom is raising alarm bells: “Sargassum goes from being a very beneficial resource of the North Atlantic to becoming what we refer to as… a harmful algal bloom when it comes ashore in excessive biomass.” Ammonia is another problem emitted by the decaying seaweed, LaPointe noted. The chemical compound “strips the oxygen out of the waters along our coastal ecosystems like mangroves, coral reefs, seagrass beds,” he said. The scale of the bloom is staggering. According to University of South Florida estimates cited by LaPointe, over 31 million tons of sargassum have been detected this year — a 40% increase over the previous record. Dr. Brian LaPointe is available to speak with the media on this topic. For interviews, click below to view his full profile and click the connect button.

View all posts
Powered by