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Study forecasted deadly flash flooding in Texas years ago

Jul 7, 2025

1 min

Jennifer Horney
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The catastrophic flooding of the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, Texas, took place at lightning speed, catching everyone off guard. But the University of Delaware's Jennifer Horney says the risk of flash flooding in the area has been increasing for more than two decades.


Horney, an epidemiologist and disaster researcher at the University of Delaware, studied flash flooding in that specific area while at Texas A&M University.


She can discuss the following:


• This area of Central Texas was designated as “Flash Flood Alley” in 2005 by the Flood Safety Education Program. It has long had high risk from flash flooding, which have been predicted to increase in intensity.


• Flash Flood Alley is the area along the Balcones Escarpment, with river valleys and steep limestone cliffs. Extreme rainfall events – the heaviest 1% of all events – have increased in frequency and magnitude by 30% since 1960.


• Urbanization and population growth in this area put more people at risk and the annual number of flood fatalities in Texas typically exceeds that of all other states. Several gaps in public risk perception persist even as risks increase with few understanding the life-threatening risks of these events.


To arrange an interview with Horney, visit her profile and click on the "contact" button; or contact UD media relations.


Connect with:
Jennifer Horney

Jennifer Horney

Professor and Director, Epidemiology

Jennifer Horney's research focuses on the health impacts of disasters and public health emergencies including climate change.

EpidemiologyepidemicCOVID-19Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency ResponseRapid Assessment

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