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Don't let brain bias tank your fantasy football season

University of Rochester cognitive scientist Renee Miller explains the science behind those bad fantasy football decisions.

Sep 4, 2025

2 min

Renee Miller

The National Football League season kicks off this week and that means millions of fantasy football coaches are already overthinking their lineups.


But before they blame a bad draft slot or a fluke injury for bombing from one week to the next, they might want to look in the mirror and give their head a shake.


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Renee Miller, a professor of brain and cognitive sciences at the University of Rochester, studies cognitive biases and literally wrote the book on bias in fantasy sports. She plays fantasy football, too.


She warns that our brains are wired to interpret fantasy football results in ways that are suboptimal and illogical.


“Biased thinking occurs in everyday life and work, and in fantasy sports,” Miller says. “Through the course of a season, you can see a full range of the ways cognitive bias affects a person’s weekly fantasy matchups.”


Here’s the good news: Miller says we can untangle those wires if we know what to look for.


Among the biggest culprits are what Miller calls “the endowment effect” (overvaluing and clinging to players you drafted high), “recency bias” (falling in love with last week’s star), and “confirmation bias” (cherry-picking stats that support what you already believe).


But especially beware of Week One. Thanks to the “primacy effect,” those games early in the season loom larger in memory than later ones. One hot debut or a disappointing flop can warp a coach’s thinking for weeks.


The result? Lineups driven more by emotion than logic — and possibly a lot of pick sixes.


Biases aren’t all bad, though. Sometimes instincts pay off. First impressions and recent performances sometimes hold fast.


But the best fantasy players, Miller says, know when to slow down and think systematically. They stay skeptical, challenge their gut reactions, and accept that they’ll be wrong sometimes.


So before you rage-drop that underperforming wide receiver or crown your Week One sleeper a superstar, remember, the smartest move might be to take a look in the mirror and give your head a shake.


Miller is available for interviews for journalists covering fantasy sports. Connect with her by clicking on her profile.


Connect with:
Renee Miller

Renee Miller

Professor, Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Instructional Track; Director, Undergraduate Neuroscience Program

Miller examines sex differences in brains and behaviors. She is author of "Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports."

Fantasy FootballFantasy Sports and decision makingNeuroscienceCognitive BiasNeurobiology

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