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Where Will AI Change Work First?

MIT CTL researchers Pierre Bouquet and Luca Mouchel are bringing new clarity to AI’s impact on jobs.

Sep 18, 2026

3 min

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Artificial intelligence is changing the workplace, but predicting which jobs will disappear may be the wrong place to start.

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A recent Boston Globe article looks at new research from Pierre Bouquet, a PhD candidate and research assistant at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics (MIT CTL), and Luca Mouchel, a visiting student at MIT CTL completing his master’s thesis in affiliation with MIT. Their AI Labor Exposure Map examines the specific tasks that make up different occupations and measures which of those tasks can already be performed or accelerated by AI.


The distinction matters. AI exposure does not mean that a job is about to disappear. It can mean that certain parts of a job are becoming easier to automate while other responsibilities, particularly those involving judgment, oversight and human interaction, remain firmly in human hands. (news.mit.edu)


“It’s not a forecast. It’s a measurement.”


Pierre Bouquet, MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics, speaking to The Boston Globe (ctl.mit.edu)


That idea is central to the broader work Bouquet and Mouchel are doing at MIT CTL.


Bouquet’s doctoral research focuses on the future of work and measuring AI’s impact on labor markets, organizations and society. Mouchel’s work focuses on quantifying workforce exposure to AI. Together, their research contributes to MIT CTL’s broader effort to understand how technology changes work at the level of individual tasks. (ctl.mit.edu)


Their work is part of the Work Analytics Lab at MIT CTL, which studies AI exposure, job design, productivity and workforce planning. The goal is to give employers and policymakers better information about where AI may automate work, where it may augment people and how jobs themselves could evolve.


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That approach produces a more nuanced picture of the future of work.


Exposure varies considerably across occupations and regions. Knowledge-intensive jobs can contain highly exposed tasks, while many service and physical roles remain less affected by current AI capabilities. Even within an exposed occupation, the parts of the job requiring human judgment, management and interpersonal skills may remain essential.


For employers, the question may therefore be less about which jobs AI will replace and more about which parts of work should change.


That creates an opportunity to think differently about workforce planning, job redesign, training and how organizations divide responsibilities between people and technology.


Story Ideas


  • AI exposure is not job loss: Why measuring tasks gives a clearer picture of workforce risk.


  • Which jobs will AI change first? The occupations and regions showing the greatest exposure.


  • What should stay human? Identifying the tasks where judgment and human interaction still matter most.


  • The entry-level AI question: How automation could reshape the early stages of professional careers.


  • Redesigning work around AI: How companies can use task-level data to rethink jobs, training and productivity.


Read the Boston Globe article: AI’s impact on jobs? It’s all over the map.


Visit MIT CTL to learn more about their work at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics are conducting on on AI, labor markets, workforce planning and the changing nature of work.




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