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Outcomes, Analysis and Midterm Math: UMW Experts Predict Democrats will Pick Up at Least 44 House Seats Tuesday

Nov 5, 2018

1 min

There is no shortage of forecasting leading up to tomorrow's midterm elections -- what might very well be a once-in-a-generation event. Ask anyone who gets paid professionally to work in politics. But it’s not always about signs, speeches and rallies – there’s voter analysis and plain old math required to accurately predict an outcome to any election.


Experts at the University of Mary Washington have developed a statistical model that uses the 2017 Virginia governor's election to predict that Democrats will pick up 44 seats tomorrow.


If this prediction is correct, the experts argue two things: Virginia is the most important state in the nation and can tell us everything we need to know about future elections.


And all of the events and "game-changers" don't matter. Trump's tweets and erratic behavior don't matter. Elections are easily predicted by simple fundamental things like presidential approval (in 2017) and what swing states like Virginia have to say. This was all done exactly a year ago. 


Chad Murphy is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Mary Washington and he has designed this prediction model. Chad is available to speak with media – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.


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