Virginia Tells Us Everything We Need to Know About Future ElectionsNovember 19, 20181 min read
Democrats increased their House majority over the weekend to a net gain of 37 seats -- and could still pick up at least one more.
The final tally is close to what a political scientist at University of Mary Washington forecast a year ago when he created a statistical model based on the 2017 Virginia governor's election.
Virginia, the expert argues, is the most important state in the nation, telling us everything we need to know about future elections. And non-biased statistical models are better forecasters than people.
Trumps tweets and behaviors don't matter. Elections are easily predicted by fundamentals: Presidential approval and what voters in swing states like Virginia have to say.
To learn more about the statistical model -- and why Virginia is so important in elections going forward -- contact Associate Professor of Political Science Chad Murphy at the University of Mary Washington. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.