Featured Post from University of Rochester

Not this time, but expect interest rates to get cut soon – our expert can explain why

Jun 20, 2019

2 min

It was all eyes on the Fed this week, but when it came to decide, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell held U.S. Interest rates steady and unchanged.

The pressure was on to lower the rates amid serious concerns that the current trade wars and tariff action could start impacting America’s economy and slow it down.

Narayana Kocherlakota, the Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester wasn’t surprised by the June decision to remain steady. And with serving six years as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, his expertise and perspective indicates lower rates will come at the next meeting.

“I am not expecting a change in policy, which means the interest rates should remain the same. What I am expecting is a lot of discussion, which takes place in secret, about cutting interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their next meeting in July. Why would they do that? The Federal Reserve is tasked with trying to keep inflation at 2 percent and keep unemployment low. Right now unemployment is about as low as it’s been in the past half-century, which is very good. Inflation remains lower than the Federal Reserve would like—it’s been below 2 percent for most of the last seven years. I think they’re mainly worried about risks. There are signs of risk around the world partly due to big variations in trade policy emerging from the White House. So, the Fed is thinking about cutting rates now in order to keep the economy as healthy as possible, if there’s any danger of a recession.” University of Rochester Newscenter.

Will lower rates really keep America’s economy humming?
Won’t lower rates impact the strong US dollar?
And if we are headed toward recession, what else can de done to turn the economy around?

There are a lot of questions – and that’s where our experts can help.

Dr. Narayana Kocherlakota was the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 2009-2015. As part of his responsibilities in that position, he served on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System. He is currently a Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics and is an expert in financial economics, interest rates and monetary policy. Narayana is available to speak with media regarding the economic effects of the shutdown – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

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Narayana Kocherlakota

Louis and Henry Epstein Professor of Business Administration at the Simon School of Business

Professor Kocherlakota's research includes theoretical and empirical contributions to many fields in economics

Central BanksU.S. Federal ReserveDynamic Games/ContractsFinancial EconomicsEconomics of Money and Payments

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May 1, 2026

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U.S. National Debt: How to Stop the Bleeding

The U.S. national debt exceeding the size of the American economy is a dubious milestone that has sparked alarm and confusion among policymakers who are asking how worried they should be and what can be done to stop the bleeding. David Primo, a political scientist and professor of business administration at the University of Rochester and a fiscal policy expert who has testified before Congress on the national debt, says Americans should be very concerned about the debt and, at the same time, know there is a solution. “The federal budget outlook is grim and threatens the economic future of the United States,” says Primo, the author of Rules and Restraint: Government Spending and the Design of Institution (University of Chicago Press). “If Congress waits to act, Americans will need to give up a bigger piece of the nation’s economic pie to stabilize the country’s finances.” Primo says a solution lies in a constitutional amendment restraining the federal budget. Specifically, such an amendment would clearly define spending and revenue, set spending limits based on a multiyear period, and allow for waiving the limit only with a large supermajority in Congress. “As it stands, Congress is constitutionally incapable of tying its own hands, making it difficult for legislators to implement durable changes to the federal budget,” Primo says. Recent data show the national debt has crossed 100% of the GDP threshold — roughly $31.27 trillion versus $31.22 trillion in economic output — marking the highest peacetime level in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that debt levels, if left unchecked, could reach 181% of GDP in the next 30 years. Primo says delaying implementing a solution raises the risk of increased interest rates, which would, in turn, reduce investment and, ultimately, economic growth. For journalists covering deficits, tax policy, and the long-term economic outlook, Primo offers key expertise and a clear lens on: • The implications of national debt exceeding GDP • Constitutional and institutional approaches to fiscal reform • Fiscal policy and political incentives “The United States is in precarious fiscal health,” Primo told Congress in 2023. “In the absence of a constitutional amendment, I fear it will take a fiscal crisis before Congress acts. Nobody wants that.” Connect with Primo by clicking on his profile.

Apr 28, 2026

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Get Over It: Pluto Isn't A Planet!

Put down the protest signs already. Retire the “Save Pluto” pins. Step away from the planetary outrage. Seriously. So says University of Rochester astrophysicist Adam Frank in his latest column in Forbes. Frank explains that the real story behind Pluto being stripped of its planetary status in 2006 isn’t about what Pluto lost, but what scientists found. Pluto made news recently when NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman replied to a Florida girl’s handwritten plea to restore Pluto’s designation as a planet, saying he supported such a move. Frank has one word for Isaacman: Stop! “Now Isaacman seems like a good guy and I sure don’t want to make little kids cry,” Frank writes. “Still, there’s an amazing science reason why Pluto got kicked out of the planet club.” For decades, Frank explains, we thought the solar system ended with the nine familiar planets, with Pluto being the most distant. But beyond Neptune lies the Kuiper Belt, a vast expanse filled with icy remnants from the birth of the solar system. These objects are essentially the leftover building blocks of planets. Pluto, it turns out, is one of them. That matters because this cosmic debris holds crucial clues about how planets form. Studying Pluto and its neighbors helps scientists understand the origins of Earth and the potential for life elsewhere in the universe. So, Pluto isn’t an outcast; it’s a key witness to our cosmic history. It belongs to a newly understood class of worlds that are central to modern astronomy. Rather than mourn Pluto’s status and push for restoring its former title, Frank suggests we celebrate its reclassification as the moment astronomers realized the solar system is far richer than they had ever imagined. If you’re a journalist looking for an expert to talk about Pluto — or planets and worlds formerly known as planets — Frank is your scholar. He is a frequent contributor to the likes of CNN, The New York Times, The Atlantic, and MSNBC, and can help your audience make sense of our vast universe.

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