Inverted yields and a potential recession – are rocky times ahead?

Aug 27, 2019

1 min

Simon Medcalfe, PhD

Everything seemed to be going swell. Unemployment was low, the number of jobs was high and the economy seemed to be roaring.


Until last week.


Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted early Wednesday, a market phenomenon that shows investors want more in return for short-term government bonds than they are for long-term bonds. It's the first time that has happened since the Great Recession and it can be an indication that investors have lost faith in the soundness of the U.S. economy. - USA Today, Aug. 14, 2019


Inversions are usually the canary in the coal mine when it comes to recessions. In fact, this very same incident has occurred in the previous nine recessions since the mid-1950s.


  • How bad will this recession be?
  • Is there any way to reverse course?
  • Is this simply an American issue or will it spread globally?
  • Compared to 2008 – how bad of a situation are we in?


There is a lot of speculation and questions being asked. If you are a reporter covering the economy and need an expert to help guide you through the situation and provide accurate information on the state of America’s economy – that’s where we can help.


Dr. Simon Medcalfe is a highly regarded finance expert and the Cree Walker Chair in the Hull College of Business at Augusta University. Medcalfe is available to speak with media regarding the economy and its outlook – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.




Connect with:
Simon Medcalfe, PhD

Simon Medcalfe, PhD

Professor

Dr. Simon Medcalfe is an economist with an emphasis on sports economics, social determinants of health, and the local economy.

Community and Economic DevelopmentSocial Determinants of HealthSports Economics
Powered by

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Augusta University

Covering Cuba? Augusta has one of the leading  experts ready to help with your coverage featured image

3 min

Covering Cuba? Augusta has one of the leading experts ready to help with your coverage

Cuba is facing one of its most severe crises in decades, as compounding economic and energy challenges continue to strain everyday life on the island. Persistent fuel shortages have led to rolling blackouts, transportation disruptions, and reduced industrial output, while inflation and shortages of basic goods have eroded purchasing power for ordinary Cubans. Tourism, once a critical source of foreign exchange, has struggled to fully recover, and the country continues to grapple with declining productivity and limited access to international capital. These pressures have contributed to rising public frustration, increased migration, and a government response that blends cautious economic reforms with efforts to maintain stability. Paolo Spadoni is an ideal expert for journalists covering this evolving situation. As a specialist in Cuba’s political economy, his work focuses on the island’s external sector, including foreign investment, remittances, tourism and the impact of international sanctions. He brings a rare ability to connect on-the-ground developments – such as energy shortages or policy changes, to the broader structural realities shaping Cuba’s economy. With deep academic research and ongoing analysis of current reforms, Spadoni offers clear, credible insight into whether Cuba’s latest measures signal meaningful transformation or simply short-term responses to a prolonged crisis. Paolo Spadoni, PhD, is a widely recognized expert on Cuba and its international relations. He is a tri-lingual political economist with a specialization in international relations and a focus on Latin America’s political and business environments. His research focuses on international relations theories, Cuba's economy and business market, foreign investment in Cuba and U.S.-Cuba relations. View his profile Since this crisis escalated, Spadoni has been the 'go-to' expert for reporters with media from across North America like Reuters, Bloomberg and The New York Times connecting with him for his expertise, input and perspective on the situation. LA TERCERA: “The Cuban tourism sector was already struggling before the Covid pandemic. The best year for international tourism in Cuba was 2017 in terms of foreign exchange earnings. That was the year in which $3.3 billion was collected, and tourism represented 10% of Cuba's GDP at that time. In terms of employment, it provided 120,000 direct jobs and roughly 500,000 indirect jobs. So it played a significant role. That was the best year for international tourism in Cuba, which coincidentally ended in November of that year with the sanctions imposed by the first Trump administration. From then on, tourism from North American visitors began to decline, but European and Canadian visitors were already decreasing,” Spadoni explained to La Tercera. CBC NEWS: "Most of those investments are real estate investments more than tourism investments, meaning the Cuban military has taken possession of prime locations in the best tourism areas of Cuba," said Paolo Spadoni, an associate professor at Augusta University in Augusta, Ga., and co-author of the 2025 book The Cuban Tourism Industry: Evolution, Challenges and Prospects. Columbia Law School: "While seeking to finalize an economic agreement with Cuba, the Trump administration could secure deals across various sectors of the economy. However, tourism holds the most promising opportunities in the short term." Global News (Canada):

Target Market: Who Are They, What Do They Value, and Where Are They? featured image

4 min

Target Market: Who Are They, What Do They Value, and Where Are They?

In last week’s column on Super Bowl ads, I stressed the importance of providing a value proposition when you are advertising or marketing your goods and services. As a reminder, a value proposition is a promise that you make to potential customers that provides them a compelling reason why they should buy your product rather than a product from one of your competitors. Prior to developing a value proposition, you first need to understand who you are trying to sell to and what product characteristics they value. This will ensure that your value proposition will be more likely convince these buyers (your target market) to buy from you. The most effective Super Bowl ads from last week did this important work well. Once the company has a good, valuable proposition, it then needs to communicate that valuable proposition to its target market. Fortunately for companies with Super Bowl ads, just about all target markets are watching the game. However, for pretty much all other advertising and marketing, it must communicate where the target market will see or hear it. In today’s column, I will walk you through how to determine who your target market is, what they value, and finally, where to distribute your marketing messages. You are probably asking yourself, why is a guy who teaches Operations and Supply Chain Management (O&SCM) writing about Marketing? The answer is simple, really. It is the job of the O&SCM function of the company to deliver on the value proposition. So, as marketing develops its value proposition, it must confer with O&SCM to determine if the firm can deliver on that value proposition. If marketing communicates a value proposition it cannot meet, the company will likely be unsuccessful. With that in mind, let us examine the target market/value proposition development process. As a firm begins to identify its target market for a particular product, it must first determine the various potential customers who might buy that product and attempt to partition those customers into groups who value similar things. For instance, looking at the automobile market, there are some customers who value low price most, some who value performance and aesthetics most, and others who value reliability, durability, and consistency. If we are either in the automobile market or thinking about entering the automobile market, we need to find a group that values some characteristics that we think we can provide better than other market entrants. As you can see, the identification of a target market and the development of a value proposition that will appeal to that target market are done concurrently and iteratively. As noted above, the O&SCM function of the company is also brought in during these iterations to determine if the physical good can be manufactured or a service can be delivered in such a way that it can meet the value proposition. One important thing to remember is that in most cases, you are not your target market. What I mean by that is that you are often biased by your own knowledge and taste/preferences, and this may differ significantly from what your target market values. Remember that you are a unique individual whose preferences for a price point and evaluation of other characteristics might differ from your target market. Be sure to develop a value proposition that reflects the buying habits of your target market customers. Once you have developed a strong value proposition that you know your O&SCM can deliver upon, it is time to message that value proposition in places where your target market is present. As noted above, this aspect of our process is like “shooting fish in a barrel” for Super Bowl advertisers because all target markets are typically watching the Super Bowl. It is not so trivial for the rest of us. We need to understand what forms of media our target markets consume (e.g., television, radio, social media), but also, with each of these media, which applications or types of shows do they frequent. While most think social media skews young, and that is true for the most part, Facebook skews older, while Instagram, Snapchat, and TikTok skew much younger. On television, much of network television skew older, but there are shows like “Dancing with the Stars” and The “Bachelor” that do particularly well with younger women. Many mornings when I am getting ready for the day, I listen to “Augusta’s Morning News” on WGAC radio, and it is clear that my fellow listeners are primarily in my age demographic. My advice is to do your homework and find out where your target market is consuming media. All the work above is not very easy, but doing it right will lead to big returns. If you can identify who you want to target, based on what they value, and then be sure they get the marketing message that you have what they value, your business will succeed!

Augusta University public health experts discuss building recovery through economic stability featured image

2 min

Augusta University public health experts discuss building recovery through economic stability

In this candid conversation, Vahé Heboyan, PhD, and Marlo Vernon, PhD, talk about their work at the intersection of public health, economic stability and substance use disorder recovery. The interviews are centered on Augusta University's public health-driven small business training initiative and explore how recovery is strengthened when communities invest in people and provide practical paths to long-term stability. Heboyan, a professor in AU's School of Public Health and a public health expert with a background as an economist, explains that economic vulnerability often hinders recovery, especially in rural areas with limited resources where risk-taking can be costly. He translates economic research into public health practice, emphasizing that small businesses and microenterprises are about providing a sustainable income for individuals and families, not creating large corporations. This stability, he notes, can have a ripple effect, supporting local economies, job opportunities and community resilience. Vernon, whose research focuses on maternal and infant health, as well as substance use disorder recovery, highlights the human side of recovery and the importance of financial security for families. She notes that economic instability can increase the risk of relapse, especially for mothers in recovery who are supporting children. Her insights show that entrepreneurship can be a public health tool, addressing income, dignity, confidence and long-term wellbeing. Both interviews emphasize the key role of community in recovery. Heboyan points out the power of peer support and shared experience, noting how participants use their past challenges as strengths. Vernon agrees, emphasizing that effective public health work requires building relationships and engaging with communities over time, rather than just conducting short-term research. Together, the interviews show that recovery is part of a larger ecosystem that includes economic opportunity, mentorship and community trust. The video illustrates how combining economics, public health and lived experience can create lasting, meaningful impact for individuals in recovery and their communities. Looking to know more? Click on Dr. Vernon's profile below. To connect with Dr. Heboyan, simply contact AU's Communications team via email (mediarelations@augusta.edu) to arrange an interview today.

View all posts