Featured Post from University of Rochester

The Great Recession: The downturn that wouldn’t end

Nov 8, 2019

3 min

The Great Recession ended 10 years ago, but University of Rochester economist Narayana Kocherlakota says it is still very much with us.

David Primo, associate professor of political science and business administration, agrees that the country continues to feel the effects of the recession, though his take differs from Kocherlakota’s.

And Lisa Kahn, a professor of economics at the University of Rochester, sees another lasting effect from the Great Recession.

“Unemployment is very low right now, leading people to think that we’ve recovered,” says Kocherlakota. “Income levels, however, are now as much as 15 percent below where they might have been, if not for the recession.”

Many economists blame the income slowdown on a natural decrease in the rate at which new ideas are discovered. But Kocherlakota, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, attributes it to something else. “Businesses don’t want to lock up money in physical investments because they’re nervous about another Great Recession,” he says. “That’s why there’s less innovation, and that’s why we have an income slowdown.”

The Great Recession began in December 2007 after the bottom fell out of the US housing market. That was followed by a shortage of assets in the financial markets and the collapse of the financial sector, including banks, credit card companies, and insurance companies. The recession, the worst in the US since the Great Depression of the 1930s, officially lasted through June 2009, though unemployment levels didn’t peak until October of that year.

According to Primo, the losers were homeowners, among others. The banks, which many observers say bear some responsibility for the recession, were bailed out by the government, while homeowners were not. That perceived double standard has led to the Occupy Movement, support for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, and the election of Donald Trump, according to Primo.

“Economists may be 100 percent correct in saying it was necessary to bail out the banks,” says Primo. “But that’s a difficult political argument to hear if you lost your house, while banks were bailed out.”

Says Kahn: “Many firms take the opportunity provided by a recession to introduce technologies that reduce their reliance on workers. In the old days, we had bank tellers giving out money; now machines can do that,” she says. “In manufacturing, we’re shifting more and more to machines instead of workers. And a lot of that shift takes place during recessions.”

Kahn points out that wages and employment have been falling for the last 30 years in exactly the types of jobs that are increasingly performed by machines.

Kahn identifies an additional recession-related phenomenon, one that specifically targets college graduates. “It has always been bad to graduate during a recession,” says Kahn. “But the lost earnings from the Great Recession are much larger than they were in previous downturns, and it’s something that will stay with them long term.”

Not only are fewer jobs available, the graduates find themselves competing against experienced workers who had recently been laid off. The net result is persistently lower wages.

Connect with:

Narayana Kocherlakota

Louis and Henry Epstein Professor of Business Administration at the Simon School of Business

Kocherlakota's economics expertise includes the Federal Reserve Bank and monetary policy

Federal Reserve BankFederal Reserve Monetary PoliciesThe FedCentral BanksU.S. Federal Reserve

Lisa Kahn

Helen F. and Fred H. Gowen Professor in the Social Sciences

Kahn's research focuses on labor economics with interests in organizations and education

Job MarketLabor EconomicsJob Market for GraduatesEconomic DownturnsContract Theory

David Primo

Ani and Mark Gabrellian Professor, Professor of Political Science and Business Administration

An expert in American politics; campaign finance; corporate political strategy, social responsibility & fiscal policy; & airline industry.

US National DebtCorporate PoliticsCorporate & Business StrategyCorporate ValuesCorporate Boycotts

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Jun 4, 2026

2 min

World Cup: Expert Sees World History in Motion

Most soccer fans watch the FIFA World Cup for the goals, the stars, and the drama. Pablo Sierra Silva sees a lot more. “You’re seeing empire, migration, nationalism, labor, religion, commercialization, and identity all unfolding in real time,” says Sierra Silva, a University of Rochester history professor who teaches a course called “World History Through Soccer.” He adds: “The World Cup is never just 22 players kicking a ball.” As the largest World Cup field ever unfolds across North America, Sierra Silva says the tournament offers a unique lens into the forces shaping the modern world. Fans need only look for it. Take the scheduled Group Stage game between France and Senegal. The matchup reflects centuries of shared history, from French colonial rule in West Africa to contemporary migration patterns and diaspora populations. The crowd, the flags, the chants, and even who is playing can reveal as much as the final score. The same is true for players like Spain’s teenage superstar Lamine Yamal, whose Moroccan and Equatorial Guinean heritage reflects broad changes in European society. “He is redefining what it means to be Spanish,” Sierra Silva says. “This is one of the stories of modern Europe, and soccer makes it visible.” Sierra Silva also studies how the World Cup has evolved into a global cultural phenomenon shaped by social media, celebrity, commerce, and fandom. Even seemingly simple traditions — such as collecting Panini World Cup stickers — offer lessons about geography, migration, and national identity. For journalists looking for unique angles on the World Cup, Sierra Silva can provide expert commentary on: • The history and politics behind international soccer rivalries • Migration, diaspora communities, and national identity • Race, religion, and representation in global sport • Sports marketing, fandom, and media culture • The World Cup as a reflection of world history and its various impacts on nations “People feel connected to histories and identities through these teams,” Sierra Silva says. “That’s why it matters.” To connect with Sierra Silva, contact University of Rochester media relations specialist David Andreatta at david.andreatta@rochester.edu.

May 1, 2026

2 min

U.S. National Debt: How to Stop the Bleeding

The U.S. national debt exceeding the size of the American economy is a dubious milestone that has sparked alarm and confusion among policymakers who are asking how worried they should be and what can be done to stop the bleeding. David Primo, a political scientist and professor of business administration at the University of Rochester and a fiscal policy expert who has testified before Congress on the national debt, says Americans should be very concerned about the debt and, at the same time, know there is a solution. “The federal budget outlook is grim and threatens the economic future of the United States,” says Primo, the author of Rules and Restraint: Government Spending and the Design of Institution (University of Chicago Press). “If Congress waits to act, Americans will need to give up a bigger piece of the nation’s economic pie to stabilize the country’s finances.” Primo says a solution lies in a constitutional amendment restraining the federal budget. Specifically, such an amendment would clearly define spending and revenue, set spending limits based on a multiyear period, and allow for waiving the limit only with a large supermajority in Congress. “As it stands, Congress is constitutionally incapable of tying its own hands, making it difficult for legislators to implement durable changes to the federal budget,” Primo says. Recent data show the national debt has crossed 100% of the GDP threshold — roughly $31.27 trillion versus $31.22 trillion in economic output — marking the highest peacetime level in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that debt levels, if left unchecked, could reach 181% of GDP in the next 30 years. Primo says delaying implementing a solution raises the risk of increased interest rates, which would, in turn, reduce investment and, ultimately, economic growth. For journalists covering deficits, tax policy, and the long-term economic outlook, Primo offers key expertise and a clear lens on: • The implications of national debt exceeding GDP • Constitutional and institutional approaches to fiscal reform • Fiscal policy and political incentives “The United States is in precarious fiscal health,” Primo told Congress in 2023. “In the absence of a constitutional amendment, I fear it will take a fiscal crisis before Congress acts. Nobody wants that.” Connect with Primo by clicking on his profile.

Apr 28, 2026

2 min

Get Over It: Pluto Isn't A Planet!

Put down the protest signs already. Retire the “Save Pluto” pins. Step away from the planetary outrage. Seriously. So says University of Rochester astrophysicist Adam Frank in his latest column in Forbes. Frank explains that the real story behind Pluto being stripped of its planetary status in 2006 isn’t about what Pluto lost, but what scientists found. Pluto made news recently when NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman replied to a Florida girl’s handwritten plea to restore Pluto’s designation as a planet, saying he supported such a move. Frank has one word for Isaacman: Stop! “Now Isaacman seems like a good guy and I sure don’t want to make little kids cry,” Frank writes. “Still, there’s an amazing science reason why Pluto got kicked out of the planet club.” For decades, Frank explains, we thought the solar system ended with the nine familiar planets, with Pluto being the most distant. But beyond Neptune lies the Kuiper Belt, a vast expanse filled with icy remnants from the birth of the solar system. These objects are essentially the leftover building blocks of planets. Pluto, it turns out, is one of them. That matters because this cosmic debris holds crucial clues about how planets form. Studying Pluto and its neighbors helps scientists understand the origins of Earth and the potential for life elsewhere in the universe. So, Pluto isn’t an outcast; it’s a key witness to our cosmic history. It belongs to a newly understood class of worlds that are central to modern astronomy. Rather than mourn Pluto’s status and push for restoring its former title, Frank suggests we celebrate its reclassification as the moment astronomers realized the solar system is far richer than they had ever imagined. If you’re a journalist looking for an expert to talk about Pluto — or planets and worlds formerly known as planets — Frank is your scholar. He is a frequent contributor to the likes of CNN, The New York Times, The Atlantic, and MSNBC, and can help your audience make sense of our vast universe.