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After deploying life-saving cholera-prediction systems in Africa and Asia, a University of Florida researcher is turning his attention to the pathogen-plagued waters off Florida’s Gulf Coast.
In the fight to end cholera deaths by 2030 – a goal set by the World Health Organization – UF researcher and professor Antar Jutla, Ph.D., has deployed his Cholera Risk Dashboard in about 20 countries, most recently in Kenya. Using NASA and NOAA satellite images and artificial intelligence algorithms, the dashboard is an interactive web interface that pinpoints areas ripe for thriving cholera bacteria.
It can predict cholera risk four weeks out, allowing early and proactive humanitarian efforts, medical preparation and health warnings. Cholera is a bacterial disease spread through contaminated food and water; it causes severe intestinal issues and can be fatal if untreated. The US Centers for Disease Control reports between 21,000 and 143,000 cholera deaths each year globally.
Make no mistake, the Cholera Risk Dashboard saves lives, existing users contend.
His team now wants to set up a similar pathogen-monitoring and disease-prediction system for pathogenic bacteria in the warm, pathogen-fertile waters of the Gulf of America.
“Its timeliness, its predictiveness and its ease of access to the right data is a game changer in responding to outbreaks and preventing potentially catastrophic occurrences.” - Linet Kwamboka Nyang’au, a senior program manager for Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data Closer to home Jutla is seeking funding to develop a pathogen-prediction model to identify dangerous bacteria in the Gulf to warn people – particularly rescue workers – to use protective gear or avoid contaminated areas. He envisions post-hurricane systems for the Gulf that will help the U.S. Navy/Coast Guard and other rescue workers make informed health decisions before entering the water.
And he wants UF to be at the forefront of this technology.
“If we have enough resources, I think within a year we should have a prototype ready for the Gulf,” said Jutla, an associate professor with UF’s Engineering School Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment. “We want to build that expertise here at UF for the entire Gulf of America.” Jutla and his co-investigators have applied for a five-year, $4 million NOAA RESTORE grant to study pathogens known as vibrios off Florida’s West Coast and develop the Vibrio Warning System.
These vibrios in the Gulf can cause diarrhea, stomach cramps, nausea, vomiting, fever and chills. One alarming example is Vibrio vulnificus, commonly known as flesh-eating bacteria, a bacterium that often leads to amputations or death.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported increases in vibrio infections in the Gulf region, particularly from 2000 to 2018. The warm and ecologically sensitive Gulf waters provide a thriving habitat for harmful pathogens.
“The grant builds directly on the success of our cholera-prediction system," Jutla noted. "By integrating AI technologies into public health decision-making, we would not only lead the nation but also become self-reliant in understanding the movement of environmentally sensitive pathogens, positioning ourselves as global leaders.” Learning from preparing early Jutla’s dashboards are critical tools for global health and humanitarian officials, said Linet Kwamboka Nyang’au, a senior program manager for Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data.
“Its timeliness, its predictiveness and its ease of access to the right data is a game changer in responding to outbreaks and preventing potentially catastrophic occurrences,” Kwamboka Nyang’au said. Over the last few years, Jutla and several health/government leaders have been working to deploy the cholera-predictive dashboard.
“Our partnership with UF, the government of Kenya and others on the cholera dashboard is a life-saving mission for high-risk, extremely vulnerable populations in Africa. By predicting potential cholera outbreaks and coordinating multi-stakeholder interventions, we are enabling swift action and empowering local governments and communities to prevent crises before they unfold,” said Davis Adieno, senior director of programs for the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data. The early warnings for waterborne pathogens also allows the United Nations time to issue early assistance to residents in the outbreak’s path, said Juan Chaves-Gonzalez, a program advisor with the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
“There are several things we do with the money ahead of time. We provide hygiene kits. We repair and protect water sources. We start chlorination, we set up hand-washing stations, train and deploy rapid-response teams. At the community level, we try to inject funding to procure rapid-diagnostic tests,” he said.
“We identify those very, very specific barriers and put money in organizations’ hands in advance to remove those barriers.” Eyes on the Gulf In the United States, hurricanes stir up vibrios in the Gulf, posing a high risk of infection for humans in the water. There has been a nearly 200% increase in these cases over the last 20 years in the U.S., according to the CDC.
“After Hurricane Ian, we saw a very heavy presence of these vibrios in Sarasota Bay and the Charlotte Bay region. Not only that, but they were showing signs of antibiotic-resistance. Last year, we had one of the largest number of cases of vibriosis in the history of Florida,” Jutla said. Samples from 2024 hurricanes Helene and Milton are being analyzed with AI and complex bioinformatics algorithms.
“If there is a risky operation by rescue personnel, not using personal protective equipment, then we would want them to know there is a significant concentration of these bacteria in the water,” Jutla said. “As an example, Navy divers operating in contaminated waters are at risk of infections from vibrios and other enteric pathogens, which can cause severe gastrointestinal and wound infections.” Safety and economics “Exposure to vibrios and other enteric pathogens,” Jutla added, “can disrupt economic activities, particularly in coastal regions that are dependent on tourism and fishing. And vibrios may be considered potential bioterrorism agents due to their ability to cause widespread illness and panic.” In developing the Vibrio Warning System, Jutla noted, he and his team want to significantly enhance public health safety and preparedness along the Gulf Coast. By leveraging advanced AI technologies, satellite datasets and predictive modeling, they plan to mitigate the risks posed by environmentally sensitive pathogenic bacteria, ensuring timely interventions and safeguarding human health and economic activities.
“Hospital systems and healthcare providers in the Gulf region will have a tool for anticipatory decision making on where and when to anticipate illness from these environmentally sensitive vibrios, and issue a potential warning to the general public,” he said. “With the potential to become a leader in environmental pathogen prediction, UF stands at the forefront of this critical research, poised to make a lasting impact on local, regional, national and global health and safety.”
Whether excited about gaining new followers or desperate to win back lost subscribers, investors who saw changes to their subscriber count performed worse than before their subscribers changed, according to a new study.
The research tracked performance on social investment sites, where individuals can trade assets like cryptocurrency while attracting audiences based on their performance — like YouTube, but for investments.
Both gaining and losing followers led investors to make more frequent, riskier trades. The upshot is that traders performed about 10% worse in the weeks after their subscriber counts changed.
“If the number of followers increases a lot, it creates an overconfidence effect. You are more aggressive in trading, and your future trading performance will be worse,” said Liangfei Qiu, Ph.D., a professor in the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business and co-author of the new study. “So logically we thought that if more followers leads to worse performance, then if we reduce the number of followers, it will reverse the effect, reduce overconfidence and lead to higher trading performance,” Qiu said. “But that’s not what we found. If we reduce the number of followers, they trade even more aggressively and their trading performance becomes even worse.” Qiu and his collaborators at the University of Maryland and University of Washington worked directly with an anonymous social trading platform to examine the impact of gaining or losing followers on traders’ cryptocurrency trading behavior and performance.
The research revealed the power of social pressure. This study was focused on cryptocurrency, which is highly volatile and may exacerbate the risk of social trading. But social trading also exists for traditional investments like stocks and bonds, and chasing followers could hurt these types of investments, too.
The researchers say that both platforms and investors should guard against the downsides.
“If platforms emphasize the social functions too much, it might backfire. Eventually it will hurt the long run performance of the platform,” he said. “The investors should realize their inherent bias and make sure their trading strategies are not too affected by social attention.”
A program spearheaded by University of Florida physicians recently expanded to improve care for new mothers throughout the state, using tools they have right at home.
Five years ago, a team of obstetricians and researchers at the UF College of Medicine launched MOMitor™, a smartphone app that allows new mothers to answer health screening questions and check vitals like blood pressure in the comfort of their own homes, using tools given to them by their health care providers. Depending on the data, the clinical team can then follow up with patients as needed for further medical intervention.
Now, the app is expanding beyond North Central Florida — where nearly 4,400 mothers have participated in the program — to other areas in the state. Clinicians are also teaming up with data scientists at the College of Medicine who are using artificial intelligence to study data and identify trends that can lead to more personalized care.
Program expansion Thanks to funding from the Florida Department of Health to support the state’s Telehealth Maternity Care Program, MOMitor™ has recently expanded for use in Citrus, Hernando, Sumter, Flagler, Volusia, Martin, St. Lucie and Okeechobee counties, said Kay Roussos-Ross, M.D. ’02, MPAS ’98, a UF professor of obstetrics/gynecology and psychiatry who is leading the program.
“The Florida Legislature was really motivated and interested in improving maternal morbidity and mortality, and through this program we’re touching additional parts of the state and helping patients beyond North Central Florida,” she said. Maternal mortality is a serious concern in the United States, with more than 18 deaths recorded per 100,000 births in 2023, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is a much higher rate than most other developed countries, Roussos-Ross said.
Common factors that may lead to maternal mortality, which is measured from pregnancy through the first year after giving birth, include infection, mental health conditions, cardiovascular conditions and endocrine disorders.
Many of these complications can go unnoticed or unmonitored, particularly if at-risk mothers are not reporting complications to clinicians. A 2025 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows that up to 40% of women do not attend postpartum visits.
“By leveraging AI, we have the opportunity to target moms and moms-to-be who might be at greater risk of complications ... and encourage them to participate in the program to mitigate these.” — Tanja Magoc, Ph.D. “Whereas we’re used to seeing patients pretty routinely during pregnancy, after delivery visits quickly drop off and some women don’t make it back for postpartum care, so we may not have an opportunity to continue supporting them,” Roussos-Ross said. “This can often be because of barriers such as housing, transportation or food insecurity. We offer referrals to help with some of these services.” With MOMitor™, patients can let their clinician know how they are recovering without visiting the clinic, improving access to care in situations where that is not always an easy option for new mothers.
“It’s a way to be proactive,” Roussos-Ross said. “Instead of waiting for a patient to come to us when they haven’t been doing well for a while, we connect with them through the app and follow up when they initially begin not doing well, so we can address concerns more quickly.” Studying data to personalize care Roussos-Ross’ team is collaborating with data scientists from the College of Medicine’s Quality and Patient Safety initiative, or QPSi, to determine how AI can assist in finding ways to further improve processes.
“By leveraging AI, we have the opportunity to target moms and moms-to-be who might be at greater risk of complications, such as developing postpartum depression or hypertension, and encourage them to participate in the program to mitigate these complications,” said Tanja Magoc, Ph.D., the associate director of QPSi’s Artificial Intelligence/Quality Improvement Program. David Hall, Ph.D., a QPSi data scientist, said his team is working alongside the clinical team to analyze data that can be used to create recommendations for patients.
“Everything we do comes from information supported in the patients’ charts,” Hall said. “We also make sure the data upholds compliance standards and protects patients’ privacy.” “We’re interested in finding out what areas might be hot spots and determining what makes them this way, so we can ... better identify areas where there may be high-risk patients and provide interventions to those who need it most.” — David Hall, Ph.D. The teams aim to intervene before patients encounter postpartum complications, addressing potential issues before they become significant problems. After taking into account a patient’s personal and family medical history, the team looks at information such as geolocation, drilling down to areas much smaller than the ZIP code level in order to find points of potential concern.
“We’re interested in finding out what areas might be hot spots and determining what makes them this way, so we can study these patterns throughout the state and better identify areas where there may be high-risk patients and provide interventions to those who need it most,” Hall said. Roussos-Ross said she is proud of the work her team has done to improve patient outcomes through the program so far and is excited to empower more patients.
“Every year, the participants give us recommendations on how to improve the app, which we love. But they also say, ‘This is so great. It helped me think about myself and not just my baby. It helped me learn about taking care of my own health. It made me remember I’m important too, and it’s not just about the baby,’” Roussos-Ross said. “And that is so gratifying, because women are willing to do anything to ensure the health of their baby, sometimes at the expense of their own care. This is a way for us to let them know they are still important, and we care about their health as well.”
