March Madness underdogs: People are riskier in gambles, forecasts made later in a sequence

Mar 12, 2024

1 min

Jackie Silverman


New research suggests that those who get hit with the annual case of March Madness are more likely to take a chance on lower seeds for matchups they happen to fill out within their brackets later on, rather than first.


Jackie Silverman, assistant professor of marketing, co-authored a study in Management Science that found people are more risk seeking (more likely to predict a relatively improbable outcome) in their later forecasts and are thus more likely to make an incorrect prediction for them. For instance, individuals were more likely to bet that an “underdog” team will win in a sports tournament for predictions they made third, versus first, in a series of forecasts.


There can be negative consequences for this "prediction order effect"; by choosing the less likely option in these later predictions, people face greater chances of being wrong, which can reduce earnings and happiness.


These results are likely to extend beyond gambling to other cases where people must make multiple forecasts, including decisions made by investors (who must make several predictions of how stocks will perform) and managers (who must forecast potential employees' performance before making hiring decisions).


To arrange an interview with Silverman, visit her profile and click on the contact button or send a message to our media relations team.

Connect with:
Jackie Silverman

Jackie Silverman

Assistant Professor, Marketing

Prof. Silverman's research examines several facets of judgment and decision making and consumer psychology.

Prosocial ActionsConsumer PsychologyMarketingDecision MakingJudgement

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from University of Delaware

1 min

Can AI save our oyster reefs? A team of scientists put it to the test

With global oyster populations having declined by more than 85% from historical levels, restoring and monitoring these critical ecosystems is more urgent than ever. But traditional monitoring methods aren’t cutting it. A team of researchers that included the University of Delaware's Art Trembanis have taken a new approach, testing an AI model designed to recognize live oysters from underwater images. The findings? The AI model, called ODYSSEE, was faster than human experts and non-expert annotators, processing in just 40 seconds what took humans up to 4.5 hours. But it wasn’t yet as accurate. In fact, the tool misidentified more live oysters than both groups of human annotators. Still, the team found that ODYSEE has real potential to monitor reefs in real time. Why does this matter? As climate change, pollution and overharvesting continue to pressure coastal environments, more precise and non-invasive monitoring tools like ODYSSEE could become essential to restoration efforts and environmental policy. Trembanis can discuss this new tool and its ability to identify live oysters without disturbing the reef. His expertise in oceanography, engineering and robotics expertise was key to the team's work. The results, published in the journal Frontiers, offer both caution and hope in the race to improve ocean monitoring with emerging technologies. To set up an interview with Trembanis, visit his profile and click on the contact button.

2 min

A path to fair minerals trade: Researcher champions global trust model

As the world races to build cleaner energy systems and powerful AI technologies, the demand for critical minerals—like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths—is soaring. But with this demand comes rising global tension over who controls these resources. University of Delaware Professor Saleem Ali, an international expert in environmental policy and chair of UD's Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences, is suggesting a new way forward. In a new article published in Science, along with a United Nations policy brief, Ali and his coauthors propose the creation of a Global Minerals Trust. The article notes how the international plan would help countries work together to manage and share critical minerals fairly and sustainably—avoiding political fights, price shocks and environmental damage. “Without a shared framework, we risk deepening global inequalities, triggering unnecessary resource conflicts and undermining our ability to deliver on climate goals,” says Ali, who also leads the Critical Minerals and Inclusive Energy Transition program at the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. The proposed Trust would use independent checks—similar to those used in nuclear safety—to make sure countries are meeting environmental and social standards. Each nation would keep control of its own resources but agree to prioritize sales of those minerals at market prices so that they can be used for clean energy infrastructure. The article builds on a TED Talk that Ali gave last year as part of the Rockefeller Foundation's "Big Bets" initiative. Ali is available for interviews on the topic and can be reached by clicking on his profile.

1 min

Will AI undermine or support writing and critical thinking?

As artificial intelligence reshapes the way we write and think, a central question emerges: Is AI helping or hindering our ability to engage in independent, critical thought? Joshua Wilson, professor of education at the University of Delaware, investigates this topic in a new paper that examines the risks of AI dependency and discusses the need for AI literacy in education. Wilson explores how AI impacts cognitive development through writing — highlighting both the promise and peril of AI-powered tools like ChatGPT. His expertise centers on how these tools interact with foundational models of writing and learning and what that means for education, workforce readiness and civic engagement. In his new paper, Wilson warns that while AI can support higher-order thinking by automating basic writing mechanics, it also risks eroding critical thinking if students and professionals come to rely on it uncritically. He is a leading advocate for AI literacy in education – training individuals not just to use AI, but to think with it. Wilson is available for interviews with reporters, particularly those covering the intersection of AI, education and society and investigating the risks of cognitive offloading in an AI-saturated world. To reach Wilson directly, visit his profile and click on the contact button.

View all posts