Eric Swanson
Professor of Economics | UC Irvine
Irvine, CA, UNITED STATES
Eric Swanson is an expert on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy.
Spotlight
Biography
Eric Swanson is a macroeconomist who studies unconventional monetary policy and the relationship between financial markets and the macroeconomy. He frequently provides expertise on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy.
Areas of Expertise (4)
Monetary Economics
Macroeconomics
Macro-Finance
Time Series Econometrics
Accomplishments (5)
Best Paper Prize, Journal of Monetary Economics
2022
Excellence in Refereeing Award, American Economic Review
2014, 2013
National Science Foundation Fellowship, Economics
1993–5, 1997–8
Department of Defense National Science & Engineering Fellowship, Mathematics
1992–3
Rosenberg Award, Top Graduate in Mathematics, Williams College
1992
Education (3)
Stanford University: Ph.D., Economics 1998
Stanford University: M.S.,, Mathematics 1994
Williams College: B.A., Mathematics 1992
Affiliations (5)
- Associate Editor, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017–present
- Associate Editor, Quantitative Economics, 2017–present
- Member, Financial Times/Chicago Booth IGM Economic Outlook Panel, 2021–present
- Member, FiveThirtyEight/Chicago Booth IGM Economic Outlook Panel, 2020
- Member, Academic Advisory Panel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2020
Links (2)
Media Appearances (10)
Opinion: How Long Can the BOJ Get Away With Rate Shocks?
Bloomberg online
2024-08-28
In a presentation to the Fed’s retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, argued that investors have become better at forecasting because officials have ramped up efforts to convey their intentions. Federal Open Market Committee “announcements themselves are rarely a surprise, while significant changes in monetary policy are frequently communicated to the markets beforehand via speeches,” he wrote in a March working paper with Vishuddhi Jayawickrema of the Sri Lankan central bank. It should be compulsory reading at the BOJ [Bank of Japan].
What is a recession? Why the July jobs report has sparked new fears
Bankrate online
2024-08-06
You might have heard that a recession is when the financial system contracts for two consecutive quarters, as reflected in gross domestic product (GDP) — the broadest scorecard of the U.S. economy. Experts, however, say that oversimplifies it. “That’s the rule of thumb that’s often been used,” says Eric Swanson, economics professor at the University of California, Irvine, who spent 10 years at the Fed. “But the last couple of recessions, it’s not quite been true.” ... Their official definition claims that a significant decline in economic activity across the financial system for longer than a few months marks a downturn.
Advice for the Federal Reserve’s review of its monetary policy framework
Brookings online
2024-07-10
Later this year, the Federal Reserve plans to begin a review of the statement of longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy that it adopted in August 2020. … Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, responded. … Eric Swanson said that the “flexible average inflation targeting framework was a giant step backward in clarity and communication and accountability.” The A (average) in FAIT made it difficult for markets and members of the public to understand how the Fed would respond to varying economic conditions.
The Fed loves a data buffet. What’s on the menu these days?
Marketplace online
2024-03-20
Certain private-sector data can also give the Fed a quicker read on the economy. Eric Swanson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine, said that early in the pandemic, when things were changing quickly, the Fed looked at online rent prices, anonymized cellphone location data and credit card transaction data. “Because consumer spending data comes out at the end of the next month, whereas credit card transaction data can come out within a day or two,” he said.
Inflation is nearly back to 2%. So why isn’t the Federal Reserve ready to cut rates?
Associated Press online
2024-02-08
From Wall Street traders to car dealers to home buyers, Americans are eager for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates and lightening the heavy burden on borrowers. … Some analysts have pointed to signs that the economy is becoming more productive, or efficient, allowing it grow faster without necessarily increasing inflation. Yet productivity data is notoriously hard to measure, and any meaningful improvement wouldn’t necessarily become apparent for years. Still, “maybe the economy can take higher interest rates than we thought in 2019 before the pandemic,” said Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine.
U.S. Government on Brink of Widespread Shutdown
CNN online
2023-09-30
If it comes to a shutdown, how would the consequences be felt? What impact does this have on the American economy? “So, for the aggregate economy, it is probably not a major effect because all of these workers do not get paid for a week or two – or however long the shutdown lasts. They do get backpay when the agreement and the budget is finally passed. So, there’s a timing shift in terms of when the pay is paid to the workers but it’s not like that money is lost – that money will be spent eventually,” says Eric Swanson, UC Irvine professor of economics.
The Fed Pauses Rate Hikes Again; No Relief for Housing Market
NerdWallet online
2023-09-20
The Federal Reserve pressed pause on its campaign of interest rate hikes Wednesday …. "There's a lot of monetary policy tightening already in the pipeline, and that is starting to have effects on the labor market and on inflation," says Eric Swanson, an economics professor at the University of California, Irvine. "I think they want to wait and see how that plays out a little more and to get a little more data before they decide whether to raise rates again."
A debt ceiling breach would be bad bad bad bad bad
Vox online
2023-05-24
Nobody knows exactly what will happen to the economy if the United States breaches the debt ceiling …. The economy is quite unpredictable, but what we can predict is that the fallout would be negative. “It depends a little on what the Treasury decides to do,” said [Professor] Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine. “They would have to basically delay paying bills, and the question is which bills they delay paying, and the effects would depend a little bit on that.”
State of U.S. economy amid banking failures and debt ceiling debate
CNN online
2023-05-01
The U.S. economy is taking hits from banking failures and the lingering debt ceiling debate. CNN's Rosemary Church interviews UC Irvine Economics Professor Eric Swanson.
The 5 weirdest things measured by the CPI
The Hill online
2023-02-14
Have you ever wondered what exactly goes into the Consumer Price Index? … Eric Swanson, professor of economics at the University of California, Irvine, told The Hill that the most recent updating of the basket composition and basket weights will be for the January 2023 price index. “There’s a lag between when the basket is measured and when it gets used in the CPI calculation, however,” Swanson said. “For example, the weights they’re using this year are based on consumer patterns from 2021. This does raise some issues that maybe households spending patterns in 2021 were unusual because of the pandemic,” he said.
Articles (3)
A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
National Bureau of Economic Research2022
Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets
Journal of Monetary Economics2021
