Eric Swanson

Professor of Economics UC Irvine

  • Irvine CA

Eric Swanson is an expert on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy.

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Spotlight

2 min

Covering the new Trump Administration - We can Help

With each day seems to come an new appointee to cabinet or significant role, a new policy twist and even the occasional walk back or withdrawal. The steps leading up to January 20, 2025 when Donald Trump resumes office as President of the United States will be getting a lot of coverage and UC Irvine has it's own team of experts ready to lend their experience, perspective and expert opinion on what is happening. Louis DeSipio examines how democratic nations incorporate new members, including policymaking in the areas of immigration. Topics of Expertise: Foreign Affairs / NATO Immigration and Deportation Department of Education, EPA, Homeland Security, Department of Interior, NOAA, HHS and FDA Jeffrey Wasserstrom specializes in modern Chinese cultural history & world history, who has written on many contemporary as well as historical issues. Topics of Expertise: Foreign Affairs / NATO Free Speech Department of Education, EPA, Homeland Security, Department of Interior, NOAA, HHS and FDA Eric Swanson is an expert on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy. Topics of Expertise: Foreign Affairs / NATO Tariffs Impact of Downsized Government Senior's Health and Social Security Heidi Hardt is an expert on NATO, defense, security, foreign policy, organizations, the EU, UN, operations, gender, climate and change. Topics of Expertise: Foreign Affairs / NATO Climate Change Gender and LGBTQ+ Rights Tony Smith’s knowledge of politics includes Constitutional Law, the U.S. Supreme Court and election law. Topics of Expertise: Free Speech Department of Education, EPA, Homeland Security, Department of Interior, NOAA, HHS and FDA Jon Gould is a distinguished scholar in justice policy, social change and government reform. Topics of Expertise: Deregulation Gender and LGBTQ+ Rights All of these experts are available to speak with media simply click on a profile now to arrange an interview time today.

Eric SwansonLouis DeSipioHeidi HardtJon GouldTony Smith

2 min

NATO, Russia and a New Approach to Foreign Policy

The election of Donald Trump for a second time as the President of the United States may have come as a surprise to many, for world leaders it means an immediate shift when it comes to global issues. Trump campaigned on dealing with the war between Russia and Ukraine and the wars Israel is fighting on multiple fronts himself, and resolving these delicate and complex conflicts with little regard to those at NATO or other leaders around the world. Trump has also indicated that serious changes will be coming to how America handles trade -which will also put how his administration deals with President Xi Jinping  in China and the newly elected President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum in the spotlight on center stage. There is already a lot of speculation an even a few glimpses at what lies ahead for US foreign policy, and if you're a reporter covering the lead up to this much hyped event then let our experts help with your coverage. Louis DeSipio examines how democratic nations incorporate new members, including policymaking in the areas of immigration. Jeffrey Wasserstrom specializes in modern Chinese cultural history & world history, who has written on many contemporary as well as historical issues. Eric Swanson is an expert on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy. Heidi Hardt is an expert on NATO, defense, security, foreign policy, organizations, the EU, UN, operations, gender, climate and change. Tony, Jeffrey, Eric and Heidi are available to speak with media simply click on either expert's icon now to arrange an interview today.

Eric SwansonLouis DeSipioHeidi Hardt

Biography

Eric Swanson is a macroeconomist who studies unconventional monetary policy and the relationship between financial markets and the macroeconomy. He frequently provides expertise on inflation, recessions and what changes in interest rates mean for the economy.

Areas of Expertise

Monetary Economics
Macroeconomics
Macro-Finance
Time Series Econometrics

Accomplishments

Best Paper Prize, Journal of Monetary Economics

2022

Excellence in Refereeing Award, American Economic Review

2014, 2013

National Science Foundation Fellowship, Economics

1993–5, 1997–8

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Education

Stanford University

Ph.D.

Economics

1998

Stanford University

M.S.,

Mathematics

1994

Williams College

B.A.

Mathematics

1992

Affiliations

  • Associate Editor, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017–present
  • Associate Editor, Quantitative Economics, 2017–present
  • Member, Financial Times/Chicago Booth IGM Economic Outlook Panel, 2021–present
  • Member, FiveThirtyEight/Chicago Booth IGM Economic Outlook Panel, 2020
  • Member, Academic Advisory Panel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2020

Media Appearances

Opinion: How Long Can the BOJ Get Away With Rate Shocks?

Bloomberg  online

2024-08-28

In a presentation to the Fed’s retreat at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, argued that investors have become better at forecasting because officials have ramped up efforts to convey their intentions. Federal Open Market Committee “announcements themselves are rarely a surprise, while significant changes in monetary policy are frequently communicated to the markets beforehand via speeches,” he wrote in a March working paper with Vishuddhi Jayawickrema of the Sri Lankan central bank. It should be compulsory reading at the BOJ [Bank of Japan].

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What is a recession? Why the July jobs report has sparked new fears

Bankrate  online

2024-08-06

You might have heard that a recession is when the financial system contracts for two consecutive quarters, as reflected in gross domestic product (GDP) — the broadest scorecard of the U.S. economy. Experts, however, say that oversimplifies it. “That’s the rule of thumb that’s often been used,” says Eric Swanson, economics professor at the University of California, Irvine, who spent 10 years at the Fed. “But the last couple of recessions, it’s not quite been true.” ... Their official definition claims that a significant decline in economic activity across the financial system for longer than a few months marks a downturn.

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Advice for the Federal Reserve’s review of its monetary policy framework

Brookings  online

2024-07-10

Later this year, the Federal Reserve plans to begin a review of the statement of longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy that it adopted in August 2020. … Eric Swanson of the University of California, Irvine, responded. … Eric Swanson said that the “flexible average inflation targeting framework was a giant step backward in clarity and communication and accountability.” The A (average) in FAIT made it difficult for markets and members of the public to understand how the Fed would respond to varying economic conditions.

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Articles

A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification

National Bureau of Economic Research

2022

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The Federal Funds Market, Pre-and Post-2008

National Bureau of Economic Research

2022

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Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets

Journal of Monetary Economics

2021

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