Josh Clinton
Abby and Jon Winkelried Professor of Political Science | Vanderbilt University
Nashville, TN, UNITED STATES
Polling expert who uses statistical methods to explain political processes. Co-directs the Vanderbilt Poll.
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Biography
Clinton (Ph.D. Political Science, M.S. Statistics, and M.A. Economics from Stanford University) uses statistical methods to better understand political processes and outcomes. He is interested in: the politics in the U.S. Congress, public opinion, campaigns and elections, and the uses and abuses of statistical methods for understanding political phenomena. His peer-reviewed publications have appeared in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, Legislative Studies Quarterly, and the Annual Review of Political Science. He is an Editor-In-Chief for the Quarterly Journal of Political Science and he is currently serving on the Editorial Board of Journal of Public Policy. He is currently the Director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions and a Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll.
Areas of Expertise (9)
Voters
Tennessee Politics
Polling
American Politics
Political Polls
Political Climate in Tennessee
Political Methodology
Public Opinion
Voter Behavior and Attitudes
Accomplishments (3)
Journal of Politics Best Paper Award (professional)
2011, For “More A Molehill than a Mountain: the Effects of the Blanket Primary on Elected Officials’ Behavior From California.” With Will Bullock.
Stanley E. Kelley Teaching Award (professional)
2009, Dept. of Politics, Princeton University
Patrick J. Fett Award (professional)
2014, for “the best paper on the scientific study of Congress and the Presidency” at 2013 MPSA
Education (4)
Stanford University: Ph.D., Political Science 2003
Stanford University: M.S., Statistics 2001
Stanford University: M.A., Economics 2000
University of Rochester: B.A., Political Science, Economics 1996
Political Science with High Honors, Economics with Distinction Magna Cum Laude
Affiliations (2)
- Quarterly Journal of Political Science : Editor-In-Chief
- Journal of Public Policy : Editorial Board Member
Links (4)
Selected Media Appearances (10)
Once again, polls underestimated Trump. Experts only have a hunch why
Reuters online
2024-11-20
Vanderbilt University political scientist Josh Clinton, who led a task force analyzing how surveys performed in the 2020 election cycle, said he was worried that the apparent mismeasurement could amplify its possible cause: public distrust of polling and of political institutions writ large.
The Polls Were Right! But Also They Weren’t.
U.S. News & World Report online
2024-11-12
The polls “were better than they were in the past, but they still kind of fundamentally understated Trump in a way that I think that the public won’t find particularly satisfactory,” Josh Clinton, a professor of political science and co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll at Vanderbilt University, tells me. “So to say that you got close, but you still understated Trump is like, close but no cigar.”
Pollsters Were Blindsided by Breadth of Trump Win
The Wall Street Journal online
2024-11-07
“Pollsters—given the crudeness of the data available to them—they weren’t horrible this time,” said Josh Clinton, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, who led a polling trade association’s postmortem in 2020. That look back found that pre-election polls were the most inaccurate in 40 years.
A lot of state poll results show ties. So are they tied because of voters — or pollsters?
NBC News online
2024-10-30
Recent polls in the seven core swing states show an astonishingly tight presidential race: 124 out of the last 321 polls conducted in those states — almost 39% — show margins of 1 percentage point or less.
American pollsters aren’t sure they have fixed the flaws of 2020
The Economist online
2023-12-31
So how should the polls be read? Even pollsters urge caution. Josh Clinton, who co-directs the Vanderbilt poll, says that “in some sense, it’s background noise”. At this stage, he notes, “it’s nearly impossible to know what’s going on”. He points to the narrow margins between Messrs Biden and Trump and the unresolved issues from 2020. Others are upbeat. “I think the state of polling is vibrant right now,” says Don Levy, the director of polling at Siena College, “and the consumer of polls has a lot to look at.”
Trump-Biden Was Worst Presidential Polling Miss in 40 Years, Panel Says
The Wall Street Journal online
2021-05-13
The 2020 polls overstated Democratic support “in every type of contest we looked at: the national popular vote, the state-level presidential vote as well as senatorial and gubernatorial elections,’’ said Joshua D. Clinton, a professor of political science at Vanderbilt University who led the review for the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
As COVID surges, Americans remain divided on the threat. What will it take to bring them together?
USA Today online
2020-11-19
Josh Clinton, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University, also has explored how political differences influence attitudes toward the pandemic. Like Gadarian, he has found Republicans and Democrats have significantly different worldviews that do not appear to be changing amid the growing threat.
Coronavirus could push Americans to lobby for a social safety net like Europe’s, experts say
CNBC online
2020-04-20
Meanwhile, Joshua Clinton, professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, told CNBC that things would “probably revert back to normal” once the crisis was over. “There might be a slight shift, but I don’t think that you’ll see a grand shift in how people think about the structure of the state and the relationship of the state to their own lives,” he said. “Looking back historically at other events, it doesn’t seem to be the case that people’s exposure to government programs or government intervention really systematically shifts them in fundamental ways.”
Delay the November election? What voters think about coronavirus and the campaign.
NBC News online
2020-04-14
Sixty-eight percent of registered voters think the coronavirus outbreak will have a big impact on election turnout in the U.S., a new poll shows — and nearly 4 in 10 support delaying the November presidential election until the pandemic is under control.
Five States Have Already Canceled GOP Primaries. Here’s What You Should Know
Fortune online
2019-10-10
"The parties are private organizations and so they can do whatever they want," Joshua Clinton, co-director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt University, told Fortune. "They're kind of a really unique institution in our society because on the one hand they're like private clubs, but on the other hand, they run our government."
Selected Articles (5)
Who Participated in the ACA? Gains in Insurance Coverage by Political Partisanship
Journal of Health Politics, Policy and LawMichael W. Sances ; Joshua D. Clinton
2019 Context: The authors examined whether participation in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) differed by political partisanship. Answering this question is important for understanding how contentious elite-level decision making and discourse may affect policy uptake, and the ability of the ACA to create a constituency of beneficiaries invested in its support.
Knockout Blows or the Status Quo? Momentum in the 2016 Primaries
The Journal of PoliticsJoshua D. Clinton, Andrew M. Engelhardt, and Marc J. Trussler
2019 Notions of momentum loom large in accounts of presidential primaries despite imprecision about its meaning and measurement. Defining momentum as the impact election outcomes have on candidate support above and beyond existing trends and leveraging a rolling cross section of more than 325,000 interviews to examine daily changes in candidate support in the 2016 nomination contests reveal scant evidence that primary election outcomes uniquely affect respondents’ preferences over the competing candidates.
Lawmaking in American Legislatures: an empirical investigation
Journal of Public PolicyJoshua D. Clinton and Mark D. Richardson
2019 Given pervasive gridlock at the national level, state legislatures are increasingly the place where notable policy change occurs. Investigating such change is difficult because it is often hard to characterise policy change and use observable data to evaluate theoretical predictions; it is subsequently unclear whether law-making explanations focusing on the US Congress also apply to state legislatures.
An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States
Public Opinion QuarterlyCourtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Joshua D Clinton, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley McGeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen Olson, Douglas Rivers, Lydia Saad, G Evans Witt, Christopher Wlezien
2018 The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Preelection polls fueled high-profile predictions that Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning the presidency was about 90 percent, with estimates ranging from 71 to over 99 percent. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency, there was a widespread perception that the polls failed.
Changing Owners, Changing Content: Does Who Owns the News Matter for the News?
Political CommunicationAllison M. Archer & Joshua Clinton
2017 The press is essential for creating an informed citizenry, but its existence depends on attracting and maintaining an audience. It is unclear whether supply-side effects—including those dictated by the owners of the media—influence how the media cover politics, yet this question is essential given their abilities to set the agenda and frame issues that are covered.
