R. Kelley Pace

Professor Louisiana State University

  • Baton Rouge LA

Dr. Pace's research interests center around the development of spatial statistical and spatiotemporal statistical techniques.

Contact

Louisiana State University

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Areas of Expertise

Real Estate Economics
Spatial Economics
Market Analysis
Real Estate
Commercial Property

Research Focus

Real Estate Economics & Spatial Econometrics

Dr. Pace’s research focuses on real-estate economics and finance, emphasizing spatial econometrics. He applies advanced spatial models to analyze housing prices, sales, mortgage performance, and commercial-property valuation, delivering data-driven insights that refine market analysis and guide investment and policy decisions.

Spotlight

2 min

Largest Cohort in LSU History: Six Distinguished Faculty Members Named Boyd Professors

Named in honor of brothers Thomas and David Boyd, early presidents and faculty members of LSU, the Boyd Professorship recognizes faculty who bring honor and prestige to LSU through their national and, as appropriate, international recognition for outstanding achievements. Before today, only 79 faculty members from all of LSU’s campuses have ever achieved this distinguished rank. The newest cohort of Boyd Professors represent a wide variety of disciplines and hail from three of LSU’s eight campuses: LSU A&M, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, and LSU Shreveport. This group includes LSU Shreveport’s first-ever Boyd Professor, a landmark achievement for the campus and a testament to its academic distinction. As the largest group of Boyd Professors ever named at one time, this cohort underscores LSU’s rising reputation for research excellence across all of its campuses. “This is a moment of real pride for LSU. Naming six new Boyd Professors is not only historic in scale, it's a clear reflection of the extraordinary strength and momentum of our academic enterprise,” said Interim LSU President Matt Lee. “These scholars are advancing knowledge in ways that reach far beyond our campuses, and their work is helping to define LSU’s place on the national and global stage. I am especially proud to see LSU Shreveport represented for the first time, a milestone that reflects the growing excellence across our campuses. This achievement is a powerful reminder of our commitment to advancing scholarship and shaping the future through research, education, and service.” The newest Boyd Professors are: Mette Gaarde, Les and Dot Broussard Alumni Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, College of Science, LSU A&M John Maxwell Hamilton, Hopkins P. Breazeale LSU Foundation Professor, Manship School of Mass Communication, LSU A&M Steven Heymsfield, Professor of Metabolism and Body Composition, Pennington Biomedical Research Center Michael Khonsari, Dow Chemical Endowed Chair and Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, LSU A&M Alexander Mikaberidze, Professor of History, Ruth Herring Noel Endowed Chair, College of Arts & Sciences, LSU Shreveport R. Kelley Pace, Professor, Department of Finance, E. J. Ourso College of Business, LSU A&M Nominations for the Boyd Professorship are initiated in the college, routed for review and support at the campus level, then considered by the LSU Boyd Professorship Review Committee, which seeks confidential evaluations from dozens of distinguished scholars in the candidate’s field of expertise. Once endorsed by the review committee, the nomination is forwarded to the LSU President and Board of Supervisors for consideration. With this distinction, a Boyd Professor’s compensation is elevated to reflect the stature of LSU’s most distinguished faculty, with a salary set at no less than the 95th percentile of full professors in comparable disciplines at peer public institutions across the southeastern United States. They also receive an annual stipend to further support their research and scholarly pursuits. Please join us in congratulating these faculty on this outstanding accomplishment.

R. Kelley Pace

Answers

With mortgage rates dropping, what do your models show about how housing prices and sales might shift in the coming months?
R. Kelley Pace

Although long term and short term rates usually move together, long term rates also reflect perceptions of future inflation and may not drop as much as short term rates. A modest rate decrease may aid activity and house prices in Louisiana. However, for South Louisiana changes in the insurance market may be more important than changes in interest rates.

Education

College of Idaho

B.A.

Finance

1979

University of Georgia

Ph.D.

Real Estate

1985

Media Appearances

How will businesses reopen after coronavirus restrictions? Post-Katrina era offers clues

NOLA  online

2020-05-02

This does not bode well for working-class areas following COVID-19. “Like Katrina, businesses with poorer clientele will be hit harder,” Pace, a member of that study group and a professor of finance at LSU and director of its Real Estate Research Institute, predicted. Nor does it bode well for enterprises operating on the edge. “To the degree that disasters effectively fast-forward trends, many firms that were declining prior to the current crisis or had older ownership may choose not to reopen,” Pace wrote.

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Articles

The rank-size rule and challenges in diversifying commercial real estate portfolios

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

2023

The strategy of geographically diversifying a portfolio of commercial real estate assets is an intuitive approach for risk management. However, due to high concentrations of these assets in major metropolitan areas, investors may face additional constraints in the portfolio optimization process. The rank-size rule, a log-linear relationship between city rank and size, provides one of the greatest empirical regularities in regional science. As such, it serves as a possible theoretical guide to the weights given to properties by location in a commercial real estate portfolio.

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Imputing Borrower Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Mortgage Default Models

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

2024

The determinants of mortgage default have been an area of rising interest since the 2008 recession. There are two distinguishing features of mortgage default analysis. First, predictor variables are often only recorded at origination. However, many important variables such as credit scores vary over time. Second, there are omitted variables (such as borrower’s income and job security). If omitted variables are correlated with included regressors or if only origination values are used in a dynamic model, then biases may be present in econometric models for default risk.

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Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida

European Journal of Operational Research

2024

We develop an additive Cox proportional hazard model with time-varying covariates, including spatio-temporal characteristics of weather events, to study the impact of weather extremes (heavy rains and tropical cyclones) on the probability of mortgage default and prepayment. We compare the survival model with a flexible logistic model and an extreme gradient boosting algorithm. We estimate the models on a portfolio of mortgages in Florida, consisting of 69,046 loans and 3,707,831 loan-month observations with localization data at the five-digit ZIP code level.

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Affiliations

  • Homer Hoyt Institute : Fellow
  • American Real Estate Society
  • American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
  • International Association of Assessing Officers

Research Grants

SES-0729259, SES0729264

National Science Foundation

2007-2011

BP Oil Spill Grant

Louisiana State University

2010-2011