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Five storms predicted in the Gulf this season, says CoMET Lab

Associate Professor

A composite of 500-mb temperatures from the seasonal weather model simulations used to generate the forecast. (The green outline shows the area averaged across for the Gulf of America.) The "-4.85C" is the temperature over the Gulf that ultimately fed into the equation to yield the prediction of 5 named storms.  This hurricane season, five named storms are predicted for the Gulf, according to LSU’s Coastal Meteorology, or CoMET Lab, which issues a Gulf of America-specific forecast.

Five represents a slight uptick in storm activity, said Paul Miller, the head of the CoMET Lab. Miller is an associate professor in the Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, or DOCS. The seasonal average for the area is 3.7 storms.

This forecast in elevated hurricane activity is in alignment with predictions for the Atlantic Ocean as a whole – NOAA has called for between 13 and 19 storms in the basin between the beginning of June and the end of November.

CoMET Lab’s forecast works a little differently than the Atlantic-based predictions.

 Those models generally focus on ocean temperatures, among other factors. CoMET’s forecast, which was initially developed with Geography and Anthropology Professor Jill Trepanier, instead focuses on average atmospheric temperatures around the Gulf, approximately six kilometers, or four miles, above the ground.

Miller said he and Trepanier considered a range of potential predictive factors when they first developed the forecast in 2021, before settling on atmospheric temperature.

“What our data shows is that the warmer the temperature is, the fewer storms there should be. The colder the temperature is, the more storms,” Miller said. This link to cooler temperatures at high atmospheric altitudes may appear counterintuitive, but, he said, “think of a hot air balloon. It only works if it’s hotter than the air around it… If you go four miles above the ground, that tells you if you have a reservoir of potential buoyancy. If the air can make it to that altitude, it’s got a better chance of continuing to rise and forming [a storm].”

Normally CoMET’s forecast utilizes temperatures throughout the month of May, but due to recent changes in data available from NOAA, Miller noted that this year’s forecast is based on readings from the last two weeks of the month.
Article originally posted here. 

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Hurricane Preparedness Week reminds everyone to plan ahead

Director of LaHouse Research & Education Center and Professor

Hurricane season officially begins June 1, and now is the time to get ready for potential storms. Hurricane Preparedness Week, observed May 4 to 10, is a reminder for Louisiana residents to review their emergency plans, strengthen their homes, and prepare their families before a major storm arrives.

“Preparedness saves lives, protects property and reduces recovery time,” said Carol Friedland, director of the LSU AgCenter LaHouse Research and Education Center. “By taking a few proactive steps now, families can be better protected during hurricane season.”

Even though hurricane season does not begin for another month, starting your preparation now can save time and hassle later. The following are good projects you can start in the coming weeks to prepare for severe weather:

Create and practice a family emergency plan and make sure it has updated contact information and evacuation information.
Assemble an emergency supply kit or go through your existing kit to make sure nothing is expired or missing. Update it to make sure your entire family, including your pets, will have supplies during an evacuation. Review insurance coverage and understand flood risks. Some companies or policies have a waiting period before your coverage begins, so contact your agent or representative now. Strengthen your home against high winds and flooding. Do an overview of your home’s exterior and note any areas that look like they need repairs, like patches of missing shingles. Repairing these smaller problems now can reduce the likelihood of your home experiencing more severe damage during a storm.  “Taking the time to check your home and yard early and getting bigger projects or repairs started ahead of hurricane season can save you a lot of stress later, especially when materials become harder to find right before a storm,” said Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, assistant director of research at LaHouse.

Don’t wait until a storm is in the forecast. Start preparing today.

Visit www.LSUAgCenter.com/LaHouse for more information, downloadable preparedness publications, and guidance tailored to Louisiana homes and families.

The LaHouse Research and Education Center is dedicated to providing science-based solutions to improve home resilience, sustainability, and health. Through research, extension and education, LaHouse seeks to address the challenges of severe weather, with a particular focus on helping Louisiana residents protect their homes and communities from natural disasters.
Article originally posted here. 

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