Expert Q&A

Like most other years in recent history, most of the bodies forecasting holiday spending are predicting increases in total sales. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting a growth rate of 4%, with sales totaling over $1 trillion. Other bodies like Simon Kucher, a pricing consultancy, project increases of over 7%, and Visa was projecting roughly 10% raises in gift spending. While these figures always vary between entities due to different specific formulas, it appears that some of the higher numbers were released earlier in the year, suggesting that later numbers may be reflecting a more up-to-date market forecast.Interestingly, this projected increase is happening despite many bodies, including the NRF, suggesting a decrease in planned per person spending. This suggests that the population growth of consumers might explain the increase in total sales for retailers, even if there’s a true decrease per person.We may also begin to see the impacts of tariffs on pricing in the holiday shopping season. This is supported by the Visa report, which suggests real spending growth of 2.2%, indicating that fewer items are being purchased despite revenue increases.

One of the grandest questions is whether or not we are alone in the universe. The ingredients for life appear to be ubiquitous, but how often that ultimately leads to life is unknown. Mars is one of the likeliest places for life to have existed, being the closest planet which was once habitable, including liquid water in the distant past. Further, if life existed then, its possible it still exists on Mars under the surface. Observations with past and current scientific experiments have hinted that life has or does exist on Mars. If the US decides to proceed with the Mars Sample Return mission, which will gather dust and rocks from Mars and bring them back to Earth for detailed study, we could prove life on Mars as early as 2040. I am one of a dozen or so scientists external to NASA brought in to consult on the design of the Habitable Worlds Observatory. This successor to Hubble is designed to seek signatures of life beyond our own, with a planned launch around 2040. Thus, NASA is seeking to answer the grand question "are we alone?" with every viable avenue.

To protect cities and communities along the Mississippi River, large levees were built along the lower reaches following the historic 1927 flood. These levees prevent overbank flooding but also cut off freshwater and sediment delivery to adjacent wetlands and floodplains, and instead funnel water and sediment directly into the Gulf of Mexico (Kesel, 1988). Historically, most of the sediment reaching the mouth of the Mississippi River was sourced from the Missouri Watershed and tributaries draining from the Rocky Mountains (Meade & Moody, 2010). However, beginning in the 1950s, extensive dam construction on the Missouri River and its major tributaries have resulted in large volumes of sediment being trapped, reducing the total sediment load reaching Louisiana’s delta plain from ~390 Mt y-1 (pre-dam conditions) to ~100 Mt y-1 (Kemp et al., 2016).The effects of substantially reduced sediment loads and restrictions to the exchange of freshwater and sediment between the river and deltaic wetlands have critically impacted Louisiana’s coast. Without the periodic input of river sediment to balance natural subsidence and sea-level rise, wetlands and barrier islands are rapidly eroding. Since the 1930s, nearly 5,000 km² of land has been lost, contributing to ecosystem degradation and greater vulnerability to hurricanes and storm surge (Couvillion et al., 2017).

When the Fed announces a rate cut, consumers often expect interest rates on the financial products they use to go down as well, but it isn’t always that straightforward. Savings:With deposit products, high-yield savings rates are the ones most likely to be affected. Many account holders may have already seen their rates go down in anticipation of this rate cut. Others may have to wait for their financial institutions to lower rates. Because the Fed is expected to continue cutting this year and throughout 2026, savings rates might continue to drop. Certificate of deposit (CD) rates are also likely to go down now that the Fed has cut rates, more so for short-term CDs compared to long-term CDs. So, locking in a CD rate now might be a good idea if you’re worried about future Fed cuts. Home Borrowing Costs:You should see an almost immediate drop in Home Equity Line of Credit (Heloc) rates because these rates are variable and tied to an index, often the prime rate. The prime rate follows the federal-funds rate, which means that when the Fed cuts rates, HELOC borrowers on both new and existing loans typically benefit. Home equity loan rates however may not see much of an impact as these rates are fixed and the rate cut has largely already been priced in. With long term mortgages, their rates are benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury rate. Historically, changes in the Fed’s benchmark rate (which is the short-term, overnight rate) are barely correlated with long-term mortgage rates. What we have actually seen since the Fed started lowering rates is that mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction. This is because the 10-year Treasury yields have risen over concerns about the economy, expanding deficits and trade wars.Credit cards:With credit cards, the rates may come down a bit, but not much to make a difference because the rates are still at historic highs. The Fed tends to cut rates when it is concerned about the economy, which means borrowers may find it harder to repay, and banks price that risk in the way they price their credit cards.

The financial system, which is comprised of financial institutions (banks) and financial markets, moves the savings in the economy to investments via credit and capital flows. Both credit and capital markets provide leading indicators of where the economy is headed. Banks create credit, and therefore people should look for signs that indicate when banks become more cautious about lending or when they see headlines about banks stress. This means that credit will become harder to get, which can slow the economy even if other indicators look healthy. They can also look for signs from the financial market. When the term spread, which is the difference between long and short- term rates is positive, it typically signals expectation of economic growth and higher future rates. When it is negative or inverted, it signals expectations of slower growth or even a recession as markets anticipate future rate cuts.

Player position matters. Lineman absorb many lower-speed, repeated hits, which makes them more prone to bumps and bruises, but as they get older we start to see more shoulder and knee injuries. Skill players take higher-speed open-field collisions, which raises their risk for sprains and strains. As players get older, they get bigger, stronger, and faster so the same plays carry more injury risk. Concussions can affect any position and don’t always require a direct hit to the head; force from a body blow can be transmitted upward and still cause brain injury. Concussions are among the hardest injuries to diagnose, because signs and symptoms may vary and you cannot see a concussion on traditional imaging (X-ray, CT, MRI). The consequences of another hit to the head while someone has a concussion are extremely serious so the rule of thumb is "when in doubt, sit them out."

In youth football the most common injuries we see are contusions or bruises (about one third of all injuries). While they often seem minor, padding the injured area and avoiding heat or massage for the first 72 hours can help recovery. Other common injuries that we worry about are joint sprains, muscle strains, and concussions. Joint sprains and muscle strains vary in severity and are usually accompanied by pain, swelling, and limited movement. Concussions have a long list of potential signs and symptoms so it is important to be seen by a qualified health care provider.

Avoidance of help - First - if people really want to die, they simply won't seek help. Help keeps them from their goal - dying. People don't always seek help when having suicidal thoughts because generally they don't think they need it and want to manage them on their own. This is where strong digital interventions, mobile applications, and building strong day-to-day wellness plays a critical role. But people also don't seek help out of fear of being institutionalized - being held against their will at a hospital with no shoestrings because the staff don't trust them to not hang themselves with them. That process, to many, feels more like jail then treatment. Finally, people don't seek help out of internal stigma - they feel shame about feeling suicidal and the things that led to this point. So given what is driving the reduction in help-seeking, we need different approaches. We need to have crisis options outside of the hospital (988, Bridge Center for Hope) and make sure folks know about them. We need to make sure folks know what is and isn't good in the app store to support their own coping (Virtual Hope Box, Safety Planning App). We need to teach folks the importance of storing medications and firearm safely incase their own desire to manage suicidal thoughts are overwhelmed. Increasing suicide help-seeking is a multi-faceted, public health approach for sure.