Featured Post from Florida Tech

Florida Tech’s Pallav Ray Seeks to Improve Accuracy of Rainfall Predictions During Monsoon Season

Component of Surface Energy Accounts for Factors Influencing Precipitation

Jan 25, 2025

3 min


CaptionResizeWrap TextRemove


Growing up in Kolkata, India, Pallav Ray recalls hot spring days leading up to summer’s monsoon season. Temperatures sat above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), rarely falling below that. When it rained, however, that’s when he could find relief – often by walking barefoot on the cool ground.


Now an associate professor of ocean engineering and marine sciences at Florida Tech, Ray studies tropical climate dynamics and their variability using observations, models and theory. His paper, “Rain‐Induced Surface Sensible Heat Flux Reduces Monsoonal Rainfall Over India,” was published in Geophysical Research Letters and highlights research he said was inspired by his childhood in India’s hot climate.


His research, funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), found that including a variable that is often neglected by climate models could improve the accuracy of rainfall predictions. In turn, that could help agriculture industries better prepare for regional irrigation and flooding during monsoon season. Ray’s climate modeling research spans across the globe, from India, to Chicago, Ill., and most recently the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent archipelago, which includes countries such as Indonesia and New Guinea.


The variable, notated as “Qp,” represents precipitation-induced sensible heat flux, which is a component of surface energy that influences precipitation. It essentially accounts for how precipitation cools land surface temperatures. Qp is calculated using a formula accounting for the specific heat of rainwater, density of rainwater, the rate of rain, surface temperature and the temperature of raindrops when they hit the surface.



This variable is important, Ray explained, because the temperature of raindrops is typically cooler than the temperature of the surface, so when it rains, the surface cools down.


During monsoon season, land is warm and the ocean is cooler, which pushes moist air from the ocean to the land. The higher the temperature difference between the land and the ocean, the stronger the monsoon because it brings more moisture, Ray explained.


In testing Qp, Ray and his team of researchers ran simulations investigating the variable’s role on precipitation. They found that when incorporating it, not only is anticipated precipitation reduced by up to 5% – which he says is a significant reduction – but the models also reflect changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation.


“The moment we include that term, it cools down the surface, land surface. The temperature difference is smaller between the land and the ocean,” Ray said. “That reduces the overall precipitation overland because now less moisture is coming from the ocean.”


In India, Ray explained, most models, overestimate precipitation. His results generated predictions that were much closer to observed rainfall.


He says that inclusion of this variable in common climate models could influence India’s regional agriculture and irrigation strategies. According to Ray, rainfall is closely tied to the India’s industries, especially agriculture.


He said the variable may have the greatest impact on seasonal rainfall predictions, which happen months in advance and determine how the country approaches its agricultural practices. Policymakers rely on seasonal rainfall predictions to anticipate and plan for summer monsoons, and the money allocated to deal with excess rainfall is “tremendous,” he said.


“If you can do a seasonal prediction a few months in advance and your precipitation actually changed by 5%, it’ll change whether you’ll have an excess year versus you’ll have a deficit year,” Ray said. “I think that’s where the main, major impact is.”


In his future research, Ray would like to explore how Qp would impact climate models over urban areas here in Florida.


If you're interested in learning more about predicting monsoons and the other fascinating research  Pallav Ray is doing at Florida Tech   - simply contact  Adam Lowenstein, Director of Media Communications at Florida Institute of Technology at adam@fit.edu to arrange an interview today.

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Florida Tech

2 min

Expert Insight: Understanding the Pacific Ocean's Missing Cold Water Surge

There's a mystery brewing in the Pacific Ocean, and it's worrying marine researchers. Every winter, between January and April, a blast of cold water surges from the bottom to the top of the Gulf of Panama. The cold surge helps marine life survive heat waves. However, this year, there was no blast. Researchers are concerned about the disappearance and believe it could be a sign of a larger problem. The phenomenon has garnered the attention of reporters from outlets like the New York Times, as well as others from across the nation. They're looking for answers.  To help find those answers, experts such as the Florida Institute of Technology's Richard Aronson are available to help explain what's happening deep beneath the surface. Each year between January and April, a blob of cold water rises from the depths of the Gulf of Panama to the surface, playing an essential role in supporting marine life in the region. But this year, it never arrived. “It came as a surprise,” said Ralf Schiebel, a paleoceanographer at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry who studies the region. “We’ve never seen something like this before.” Richard Aronson, a professor of marine sciences at the Florida Institute of Technology, has studied this particular patch of ocean off the coast of Panama for decades. The cold blob gives those corals a better chance of surviving marine heat waves than other areas, he said. Heat stress has plunged the world’s coral reefs into ongoing mass bleaching that began in January 2023. About 85 percent of the world’s coral reef areas have been affected, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “The climate is warming, that’s putting coral reefs at risk,” said Dr. Aronson, who was not involved with the paper. While corals can adapt to changes in temperature, the climate is changing too quickly for them to keep up in the long run, he said. Sea surface temperatures have risen by more than 1 degree Celsius since humans began burning fossil fuels during the Industrial Revolution, breaking records in 2024 and 2023. It’s too soon to tell if the blob will return in future years. But if it disappears repeatedly, then “it’s cause for grave concern,” Dr. Aronson said. If you’re covering this topic or looking to speak with an expert about climate change and its impact on our oceans, Richard Aronson is available for interviews. Simply click the icon below to connect with him today.

1 min

As Extreme Heat Scorches the U.S., Aviation Expert Explains Why Planes Struggle to Fly in High Temperatures

Record-breaking heatwaves are plaguing the U.S. this summer, making it difficult to stay cool. However, the scorching temperatures aren't just affecting us at the ground level — they're disrupting air travel, too, with increasing flight delays and aircraft weight restrictions.  Visiting assistant professor of aeronautics Shem Malmquist, a recognized expert in aviation safety and operations, spoke with FOX 35 Orlando about how extreme temperatures can directly impact aircraft performance, particularly at high-traffic airports during the summer. "Temperatures are probably not something people think about," said Shem Malmquist, a graduate lecturer in aviation at Florida Tech. "But the delays just compound on each other. If you start getting delayed because people need more time to take breaks to stay cool, now that flight’s late, and that has a snowball effect." These limitations can affect passenger loads, cargo capacity and overall flight scheduling. As temperatures continue to climb, Malmquist warned that these disruptions could become the new normal — not just a seasonal inconvenience, but a growing challenge for the aviation industry in the face of climate change. A seasoned Boeing 777 captain and accident investigator, Malmquist has spent decades researching aircraft operations and emergency scenarios. He’s also contributed to global conversations on aviation safety policy and climate-related infrastructure resilience. If you’re covering this topic or looking to speak with an expert on the intersection of climate and air travel, Malmquist is available for interviews. Click the icon below to connect with him.

2 min

Could China Beat America in the Race to Get Boots Back on the Moon?

Call it a matter of pride, national security or a desire for astronomical dominance; there's a sense of urgency within the U.S. government to return to the moon, sparked by China's team of taikonauts, who could land there before American astronauts get back to the lunar surface. The latest space race is a topic that is making national news. Florida Tech's experts are lending their opinions and insights about the likelihood of a lunar return, and what it might mean. NASA, with the urging of many politicians, has been racing to get astronauts back to the moon — before the Chinese land taikonauts on the lunar surface. But what’s the rush to return to a place the United States has already been and left 53 years ago? Especially when Mars looms as an enticing option for interplanetary travel. Space experts say there’s plenty of reasons for the urgency: national pride and national security. But also returning to the moon and building habitats would mean long term dominance in space and ensure access to resources that NASA didn’t know where there when the Apollo missions flew. Now with the Chinese making significant progress in human space exploration, the clock is ticking. “The Chinese in the last 20 years have made amazing strides in all aspects of space. They’re sending robots to the moon on a very regular basis. Now they’re doing some pretty amazing activities even on the far side of the moon, and they have a Chinese space station now in Earth orbit,” said Don Platt, associate professor of space systems at Florida Tech. Can China beat NASA to the moon? “The Chinese have really caught up,” said Platt. “I do believe that the Chinese are definitely advancing their efforts on the moon, and are identifying it as a critical aspect of their strategic future in space." When asked about the prospect of Chinese astronauts making it to the moon before NASA's planned Artemis III mission, Platt said he believes it’s a possibility and he cited the efforts China is making to highlight the importance of the nation's space efforts to its own populace. “They have some amazing videos. They’re really engaging the Chinese public, and really using it to do what what we’ve always done in space, and that is to inspire the next generation and to show the world the technical abilities of the Chinese,” said Platt.  May 21 - USA Today The race is on, and it's getting a lot of attention. If you're a journalist following this ongoing story, let us help with your coverage. Dr. Don Platt's work has involved developing, testing and flying different types of avionics, communications and rocket propulsion systems. He also studies astrobiology and biotechnology systems and human deep space exploration tools. Don is available to speak with media anytime. Simply click on the icon below to arrange an interview today.

View all posts
Powered by