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Tracking rain patterns will improve hurricane forecasting, UF researcher finds

Jan 8, 2026

4 min

Studying the precipitation patterns in hurricanes may be key to predicting future storm patterns and their potential strength, a University of Florida researcher has found.

Supported by a four-year, $212,000 grant from the National Science Foundation, Professor of Geography Corene Matyas, Ph.D. has identified the patterns of rain rates within storms and studied the moisture surrounding these storms.

“We are hoping that, if we have a better prediction of moisture availability, that might help us forecast rain events with greater accuracy,” Matyas said. “The more we know about how storms develop, the more we can predict their path and magnitude.”

The ideal stage for the perfect storm

The potential for devastating high winds, storm surge and flooding poses an annual threat to Florida and its residents. With 1,350 miles of coastline and relatively flat geography that juts out to separate the warm waters of the southeast Atlantic and the Gulf, Florida creates the ideal stage for the perfect storm. Last year broke records with 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and three major hurricanes making landfall along Florida’s coast.

Early predictions are crucial to hurricane preparedness, allowing for increased response time and resource allocation, and hurricane modeling is essential for understanding these somewhat unpredictable storms. Advances in technology, data collection and the use of artificial intelligence in hurricane modeling have significantly impacted the ability to predict a storm’s path and strength more accurately.

Artificial intelligence helps researchers understand hurricanes

Matyas has completed two studies on this topic. The first study processed 12,000 images of rain rates from tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, using a machine learning algorithm called a convolutional autoencoder. Similar in use to image recognition software, the encoder broke the rain rate images down and simplified the patterns. Six main types, or clusters, of rainfall patterns for tropical cyclones were identified.

At a presentation of the work to forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Jacksonville, the forecasters confirmed that one of the patterns matches what they typically see when late-season storms make landfall over Florida’s Gulf Coast. The second study used the autoencoder to process 4,600 images that represent the amount of moisture in the atmosphere extending 1,000 kilometers away from each hurricane.

“We looked for commonalities in the patterns and found four dominant patterns of moisture that accompany Atlantic basin hurricanes,” Matyas said. “We found the biggest storms with the most moisture make the most landfalls, typically in the Caribbean and even in southern Florida. They also have a large moisture pool, giving them a bigger chance of heavy rainfall.”

According to Matyas, three of the moisture patterns found in the second study were strikingly like those found in the earlier study that used fewer observations in a statistical analysis. With this use of AI, researchers can now recognize and understand these moisture patterns better, which can improve predictions about a storm’s intensity, its size and the amount of rainfall that will result from it.

Early, accurate storm predictions allow Floridians time to prepare

Rapid intensification – when, in a 24-hour period, a storm experiences a sudden drop in pressure and a dramatic increase in wind speed – creates much more of a challenge for forecasters.

“We tend to boil down a hurricane to a set of coordinates which track the middle of a storm,” Matyas said. “And the fastest winds do focus there, but the moisture gets pulled from thousands of kilometers away and the system forces the moisture up. That moisture must go somewhere. So, the outer edges of the storm need to be understood more as well.”

Matyas hopes these studies will help scientists classify rain patterns more accurately and consistently. Continued funding for research at public universities from federal agencies, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is essential for helping researchers develop tools to detect and predict severe weather events.

Matyas is one of two UF faculty members among 18 national researchers named to the 2025 class of fellows by the American Association of Geographers. Matyas and UF Geography Department Chair Jane Southworth, Ph.D. were honored by the organization for their contributions in biogeography, geospatial analytics, soil science, community geography, climatology and other areas related to geography.

“I look forward to this opportunity to contribute to the mission of the AAG in a more formal capacity, continuing to research how weather shapes our spaces and share knowledge of earth systems beyond the classroom and the written word to promote an inclusive society,” Matyas said.

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Corene Matyas

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Corene Matyas researches the spatial analysis of rainfall from tropical cyclones.

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Mar 17, 2026

2 min

Workplace jargon hurts employee morale, collaboration, study finds

You’ve probably heard it before in a meeting: “Let’s touch base offline to align our bandwidth on this workflow.” Corporate jargon like this is easy to laugh at — but its negative impact in the office can be serious. According to a new study, using too much jargon in the workplace can hurt employees’ ability to process messages, leading them to experience negative feelings and making them feel less confident. In turn, they’re less likely to reach out and ask for or share information with their colleagues. “You need people to be willing to collaborate, share ideas and look for more information if they don't understand something at work,” said Olivia Bullock, Ph.D., an assistant professor of advertising at the University of Florida and co-author of the new study. “And jargon might actually be impeding that information flow across teams.” Age made a difference, though. Older workers had a harder time processing jargon, but were more likely to intend to ask for more information to clarify the message. Younger employees were less likely to seek and share information when confused by jargon. “It gives credence to the idea that younger people are more vulnerable to these workplace dynamics,” Bullock said. “If you're onboarding younger employees, explain everything clearly.” Bullock and her co-author, Tiffany Bisbey, Ph.D., an assistant professor at George Washington University, published their findings Aug. 25 in the International Journal of Business Communication. An expert in communication research, Bullock has long studied jargon’s negative effects for talking about health and science. Then, faced with jargon in her own work, she started to ask how these arcane, technical words might get in the way of a smooth workplace. To find out, Bullock surveyed nearly 2,000 people who were told to imagine they had just started a new job and received an email with important directions. Half had to navigate a jargon-filled message about “intranets” and “EFT” payments. The other half had that jargon translated back into plainer language. The message packed with jargon, not surprisingly, made it harder for people to process the information, which can throw off an entire workday. “It doesn't just make them feel bad about the information they've been given. It makes them feel bad about themselves,” Bullock said. The study then asked people how they would respond to the jargon. The impenetrable language made them feel insecure and less likely to ask for help right when they needed it the most. “They weren’t as willing to collaborate,” Bullock said. “If you can’t ask for more information or share that information downstream, you’re creating silos, and that’s disrupting your workflow and environment.” Having studied jargon for so long, Bullock has one piece of advice for employers and employees alike. “Always reduce jargon,” she said. “The benefit of using jargon doesn’t outweigh the cost.”

Mar 15, 2026

4 min

With lasers, smoke and a wind tunnel, UF helps federal agency investigate deadly Hurricane Maria

As Floridians brace for hurricanes amid the wild weather of 2025, some University of Florida researchers have their eyes on 2017’s Hurricane Maria, the deadly Category 4 storm that pummeled Puerto Rico. Engineering professor and natural hazards researcher Brian Phillips, Ph.D., is leading UF’s efforts in a Hurricane Maria investigation conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, known as NIST. The goal is increased safety and resilience amid deadly conditions. Maria killed nearly 3,000 people and caused more than $90 billion in damage. Most of the island’s wind sensors and weather stations failed as the storm raged, leaving responders and investigators with few reliable weather measurements. What went wrong? Phillips and UF storm researchers are helping answer that question — and provide safety and structural recommendations — as part of NIST’s Hurricane Maria investigation. The full report will be released in 2026, but NIST recently published preliminary findings; some of the hazard and structural load data was derived from wind tunnel tests at UF's NHERI Experimental Facility in the Powell Family Structure and Materials Laboratory on UF’s East Campus in Gainesville. “Our wind tunnel has a strong reputation in the wind-engineering community for its unique flow control and measurement capabilities We worked with NIST to develop a test campaign to study the wind conditions Puerto Rico’s mountainous terrain and the resulting loads of critical infrastructure,” said Phillips, a civil and coastal engineering professor with UF’s Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure & Environment. “UF,” he added, “has one of the premier research wind tunnels in the country and it enables us to pursue impactful research like this.” As part of the NIST investigation, Phillips and his team created 1-to-3100 scale topographic models of regions in Puerto Rico — about 12 kilometers shrunk down to four meters, Phillips said. They set up those models in the wind tunnel and replicated wind flow over the topography. “These initial tests were designed to understand the influence of the complex topography had on the wind,” Phillips said. Flow was measured using velocity probes and particle image velocimetry (PIV). These topographic model tests were followed by 1-to-100 scale tests on models of two hospitals in Puerto Rico. In addition to surface pressure measurements, the team conducted qualitative flow visualization tests using smoke, lasers, and high-speed cameras. “The capabilities of the UF wind tunnel enabled us to investigate the hurricane winds at two different scales,” said NIST’s lead Hurricane Maria investigator, Joseph Main, “so we could measure how the winds were accelerated by Puerto Rico’s mountainous topography and then how those winds translated into loads on critical buildings.” Maria’s flooding blocked roads to hospitals and shelters. The hospitals themselves were heavily damaged by the storm, NIST reported. Reduced access to healthcare was a major factor in the death toll. “It's good to take a step back,” Phillips said about the overall investigation. “Researchers are approaching the disaster from multiple angles, including the better understanding of the hazard, the performance of critical infrastructure, public response and recovery. “This holistic approach is needed to capture the complete picture and maximize what we can learn from the event. UF's primary contribution was understanding the hurricane wind field and the resulting structural loads, which is a critical piece of that puzzle.” In finding infrastructure vulnerabilities, researchers contend the goal is integrating their findings into design standards for Puerto Rico’s unique topography and building codes. The findings also could be valuable to other storm-prone regions with complex topography. NIST launched the investigation in 2018, noting Hurricane Maria “set off a cascade of building and infrastructure failures across Puerto Rico that had lasting impacts on society, including health care, business and education.” “Our goal is to learn from that event to recommend improvements to building codes, standards and practices that will make communities more resilient to hurricanes and other hazards, not just in Puerto Rico but across the United States,” Main said. The complete report is scheduled to be released in 2026, and NIST noted some findings may change before its release. But in July, NIST released some preliminary findings. They include: Peak wind speeds over flat terrain reached 140 mph. They accelerated to over 200 mph in some areas due to the steep hills and mountains. The mountains also intensified the rainfall, which reached 30 inches in some areas. Only three out of 22 weather stations were fully functional during the hurricane. 95.3% of schools on the island lost power for an average of over 100 days. “One important preliminary finding from the study is that emergency preparations work,” NIST reported. “Businesses, schools and hospitals that took specific measures to prepare before Hurricane Maria were able to resume operations more quickly” said Maria Dillard, NIST’s associate lead Hurricane Maria investigator. Preparations included pre-established emergency plans, designated risk mitigation funds and backup power sources.

Mar 12, 2026

3 min

Reading for pleasure in free fall: New study finds 40% drop over two decades

A sweeping new study from the University of Florida and University College London has found that daily reading for pleasure in the United States has declined by more than 40% over the last 20 years — raising urgent questions about the cultural, educational and health consequences of a nation reading less. Published today in the journal iScience, the study analyzed data from over 236,000 Americans who participated in the American Time Use Survey between 2003 and 2023. The findings suggest a fundamental cultural shift: fewer people are carving out time in their day to read for enjoyment. “This is not just a small dip — it’s a sustained, steady decline of about 3% per year,” said Jill Sonke, Ph.D., director of research initiatives at the UF Center for Arts in Medicine and co-director of the EpiArts Lab, a National Endowment for the Arts research lab at UF in partnership with University College London. “It’s significant, and it’s deeply concerning.” Who’s reading and who isn’t The decline wasn’t evenly spread across the population. Researchers found steeper drops among Black Americans than white Americans, people with lower income or educational attainment, and those in rural (versus metropolitan) areas — highlighting deepening disparities in reading access and habits. “While people with higher education levels and women are still more likely to read, even among these groups, we’re seeing shifts,” said Jessica Bone, Ph.D., senior research fellow in statistics and epidemiology at University College London. “And among those who do read, the time spent reading has increased slightly, which may suggest a polarization, where some people are reading more while many have stopped reading altogether.” The researchers also noted some more promising findings, including that reading with children did not change over the last 20 years. However, reading with children was a lot less common than reading for pleasure, which is concerning given that this activity is tied to early literacy development, academic success and family bonding, Bone said. Why it matters Reading for pleasure has long been recognized not just as a tool for education, but as a means of supporting mental health, empathy, creativity and lifelong learning. The EpiArts Lab, which uses large data sets to examine links between the arts and health, has previously identified clear associations between creative engagement and well-being. “Reading has historically been a low-barrier, high-impact way to engage creatively and improve quality of life,” Sonke said. “When we lose one of the simplest tools in our public health toolkit, it’s a serious loss.” The American Time Use Survey offers a unique window into these trends. “We’re working with incredibly detailed data about how people spend their days,” Bone said. “And because it’s a representative sample of U.S. residents in private households, we can look not just at the national trend, but at how it plays out across different communities.” Why are Americans reading less? While causes were not part of the study, the researchers point to multiple potential factors, including the rise of digital media, growing economic pressures, shrinking leisure time and uneven access to books and libraries. “Our digital culture is certainly part of the story,” Sonke said. “But there are also structural issues — limited access to reading materials, economic insecurity and a national decline in leisure time. If you’re working multiple jobs or dealing with transportation barriers in a rural area, a trip to the library may just not be feasible.” What can be done? The study’s authors say that interventions could help slow or reverse the trend, but they need to be strategic. “Reading with children is one of the most promising avenues,” said Daisy Fancourt, Ph.D., a professor of psychology and epidemiology at University College London and co-director of the EpiArts Lab. “It supports not only language and literacy, but empathy, social bonding, emotional development and school readiness.” Bone added that creating more community-centered reading opportunities could also help: “Ideally, we’d make local libraries more accessible and attractive, encourage book groups, and make reading a more social and supported activity — not just something done in isolation.” The study underscores the importance of valuing and protecting access to the arts — not only as a matter of culture, but as a matter of public health. “Reading has always been one of the more accessible ways to support well-being,” Fancourt said. “To see this kind of decline is concerning because the research is clear: reading is a vital health-enhancing behavior for every group within society, with benefits across the life-course.”