Terror sways voters - just not the way terrorists want

Nov 2, 2018

2 min

Lance Hunter, PhD

Those hoping to use fear to sway elections are in for a shock come election day.


Terrorist attacks meant to suppress voter turnout — like the ethnically and racially-motivated attacks in Pittsburgh and Louisville, Kentucky in October — often have the opposite effect according to a study published by Augusta University researcher Dr. Lance Hunter.


The study, published in “Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression” in 2017, examined voter turnout following terrorist attacks in seven major urban centers across the United States over the course of four decades. The study found that attacks not only increase voter turnout, but that the severity of an attack may also impact how more voters show up at the polls.


“Severity was measured as the number of individuals wounded in attacks and the amount of property value damage that occurred due to attacks,” said Hunter, assistant professor of Political Science in the Katherine Reese Pamplin College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. “We found that more severe terrorist attacks were associated with higher voter turnout.”


The frequency of terror attacks also increased voter turnout, with every 10 attacks contributing to a 1.7 percent increase in turnout for gubernatorial elections and a 1.8 percent turnout for senate elections.


“When the terrorist attacks variable was set at its minimum level (0 attacks) expected voter turnout was 28% for gubernatorial elections and 30% for senatorial elections,” Hunter said. “However, expected voter turnout increased to 43% for gubernatorial elections and 44% for senatorial elections as the number of terrorist attacks increased to its maximum level (80). 


Hunter attributed these findings to the notion that more severe terrorist attacks tend to have a greater psychological impact on citizens. That impact, he theorized, leads citizens of affected areas to pay greater attention to their political environment and encourages them to vote in greater numbers.


“In other words, terrorism makes politics more salient for citizens,” he said. “As they become more attuned to the politics of the day, they are more likely to turnout to vote.”


The data, which looked at elections held from 1970 to 2012, found that the type of election did not lessen or increase voter turnout following a terrorist attack. Voters in affected areas turned out in greater numbers for both midterm and presidential elections. Voter turnout is typically higher in presidential elections, regardless of attacks.


Contact Nick Garrett at (706) 993-6411 or ngarret1@augusta.edu to schedule an interview with Dr. Hunter on this topic. 



Connect with:
Lance Hunter, PhD

Lance Hunter, PhD

Professor of Political Science

Dr. Lance Hunter studies the connection between terrorism and political stability in democracies.

PoliticsTerrorismInternational RelationsVotingCivil Liberties

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Augusta University

3 min

Nursing researcher receives over $500K in prestigious grants

For the first time in nearly 15 years, a faculty member from Augusta University’s College of Nursing has been awarded a grant from the National Institutes of Health. Blake McGee, PhD, has secured an R03 award of $176,331 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to study Medicaid’s expanded role in late postpartum maternal health. But he hasn’t stopped there as McGee is also part of the fifth cohort of Betty Irene Moore Fellows, a prestigious program for nurse leaders and innovators that has awarded CON half a million dollars to support his research project and leadership development. McGee, the prelicensure department chair and an associate professor, is collaborating with colleagues from other Georgia universities on both studies, which are occurring simultaneously. “I began my career as an ER nurse and have always wanted to ask bigger questions about the challenges facing patients and how we might best address them as a society,” said McGee, who was recently selected for publication in Blood Advances, the American Society of Hematology’s journal. “As nursing scientists, we are uniquely poised to ask questions about healthcare policy, specifically from the vantage point of the impact that policy choices have on patients and their health outcomes.” This century, the United States has seen rising maternal mortality rates with alarming racial disparities. Over half of these deaths occur in the postpartum period, with 23% occurring more than six weeks after delivery. Medicaid expansion covers pregnant women in households below 138% of the Federal poverty level through postpartum day 60, which has been associated with decreased mortality and reduced racial disparity in maternal death. At the time of grant submission, pregnancy Medicaid eligibility traditionally lapsed 60 days after delivery, leaving postpartum people vulnerable to disruptions in care. McGee’s work aims to identify changes in maternal health care use and health outcomes 60 days to 1 year after delivery that were associated with state Medicaid expansions (2007–19). The team will examine whether the effects of expansion vary by maternal race or ethnicity and will explore whether patient-reported health care access and quality mediate the relationships between expansion and outcomes. “My hope is that after the study we’ll have a better understanding of how health and health care use change for women in this crucial late postpartum period and how they may differ for people of different backgrounds,” said McGee. “Due to the sample design, findings will reliably inform optimal policy for postpartum coverage duration.” He expects this study to provide preliminary data for a future R01-funded study that directly examines the impact of extending the duration of postpartum Medicaid under the American Rescue Plan. As part of the Betty Irene Moore Fellowship, McGee is one of 15 fellows across the nation in a curriculum co-delivered by the UC Davis School of Nursing and Graduate School of Management. A project coordinator from AU’s School of Public Health will also assist with the fellowship project. McGee hopes to involve graduate research assistants or recent alumni as research associates on the team. Specifically, McGee will be studying the Georgia Pathways to Coverage Program, making him one of the only academic researchers in the nation funded to do so. “As a researcher, it is always a privilege to engage in topics that directly impact the current state of health care, and I’m honored to tackle projects that are so relevant to today’s health policy headlines,” he said. Georgia stands out among other states that are exploring an extension of Medicaid to low-income, working-age adults who demonstrate a monthly commitment of 80 hours to an employment-related activity. By studying the effects of this program, McGee predicts the findings will be highly relevant to anticipating the impact of recent Medicaid changes at the federal level and may indicate differences between Pathways participants and those who might qualify but remain uninsured. This focus could provide data that helps the state target enrollment efforts. The state’s own logic model predicts that the program will reduce hospitalizations, and McGee is eager to determine the program’s success. “Our findings should be helpful to the state to better understand those enrolling, what their experience with increased access to care has been and how their health has improved after receiving coverage,” McGee said.

1 min

#Expert Insights: Leaders share insights of Augusta University, Wellstar partnership at Health Connect South

In the two years since Augusta University and Wellstar Health System formally signed an agreement on August 30, 2023, the historic partnership has continued to evolve into a truly collaborative alliance. At its heart, the mission hasn’t changed: improving the health and wellbeing of all Georgians while educating and preparing the next generation of health care providers through access to world-class training. That was the message shared by Augusta University President Russell T. Keen, Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University Dean David C. Hess, MD, and former Wellstar President and CEO Candice L. Saunders at the recent Health Connect South conference held at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. During their panel “Advancing Healthcare Through Public-Private Partnerships,” the three leaders – each instrumental in helping to create, implement and mold the historic partnership – shared with close to 1,100 attendees their insight into what makes the partnership beneficial for all and how it can be a model for advancing health care and health care education in Georgia and beyond. The full panel discussion is available for viewing here: It was an important event, and a full article is attached below as well. And if you're interested in learning more about the partnership between Augusta University and Wellstar, or connect with Augusta's President Russell T. Keen - simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

2 min

Expert Research: Cyber-Enabled Education Operations: Towards a Strategic Cybersecurity Curriculum for the Social Sciences

Recently, Craig Albert, PhD, was published in the Journal of Political Science Education. The article, 'Cyber-Enabled Education Operations: Towards a Strategic Cybersecurity Curriculum for the Social Sciences,' looks into how U.S. cyber intelligence training is overly technical and should integrate political science and social science courses to build strategic thinkers who understand adversaries’ motives and policies, ultimately strengthening U.S. national security. Craig Albert, PhD, is a professor of Political Science and the graduate director of the PhD in Intelligence, Defense, and Cybersecurity Policy and the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. His areas of concentration include international security studies, cybersecurity policy, information warfare/influence operations/propaganda, ethnic conflict, cyberterrorism and cyberwar, and political philosophy. View his profile here. Here's the abstract from the paper in Research Gate: Most cyber intelligence analysts within the United States Intelligence Community (USIC) typically enter the field with strong technical expertise, often derived from degrees in computer science or extensive technical training. However, a critical gap exists in education and training on the strategic dimensions of cyber threats. This paper advocates for the integration of cybersecurity-focused courses within social science disciplines, particularly political science, to cultivate strategic thinkers who can contribute effectively to the USIC. The inclusion of strategic policy coursework in political science curricula, as well as more broadly across social science programs, would better prepare students for careers in the USIC by deepening their understanding of the motivations, capabilities, and intentions of the United States’ strategic adversaries in cyberspace—specifically Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Such training would equip analysts with critical insights to improve their effectiveness in identifying, attributing, and mitigating cyber intrusions. Moreover, a stronger emphasis on the human behavior and policy dimensions of cybersecurity would enhance the overall competency of the USIC workforce, thereby strengthening U.S. national security policy. Looking to know more? Let us help. Craig Albert, PhD, is available to speak with media. Simply click on his icon now to arrange an interview today.

View all posts