Featured Post from Cedarville University

Feeling the Bern in Iowa – Just how crucial is the first primary for DNC frontrunners?

Jan 28, 2020

2 min

They’ve been polling for months in advance in Iowa – and with less than a week to go before Iowans gather to caucus and choose their preferred person to lead the DNC this November, the most recent polling has Bernie Sanders surging and Joe Biden fading in major races and across the country.

Polling in Iowa is still tight and shows a four-candidate race between Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, making it clear the first-in-the-nation caucus battle remains anyone’s game.

Yet it is also clear that Sanders has a strong chance of coming out on top in Iowa, as well as in New Hampshire, which will vote just a week later.

Such a result would make him the clear front-runner and would likely unnerve parts of the Democratic Party uneasy about the progressive independent being their standard-bearer in the fall.

Sanders separated himself from the pack in a New York Times-Siena Research poll of Iowa released over the weekend, one of the first to find a clear-cut leader in the Hawkeye State. And a WBUR survey of New Hampshire released this week found Sanders opening up a 12-point advantage over the next closest contender.

Sanders surpassed Biden in CNN’s latest national poll, marking the first time Biden has not held the top spot in that poll this cycle. Jan 26 – The Hill

There’s still a long way to go, and if you are a journalist covering the primaries – then let our experts help with your questions and coverage.

How does the Iowa caucus different from other states?
Are there alliances forming and can any of the leading candidates count on support from the other contenders when the drop out.
What will the Bloomberg factor be?
And who has the money and staying power to hold on if there’s bad news in February?

Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with media regarding the DNC Primary and the upcoming election. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.

Connect with:

Mark Caleb Smith, Ph.D.

Professor of Political Science

Dr. Smith is an expert in American politics, campaigns & elections, and constitutional law.

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Oct 29, 2026

1 min

Reported Iranian Threats Prompt U.S. Embassy Precautions

Reported threats against American personnel are prompting new precautions at U.S. diplomatic posts in the Middle East. The State Department is reducing staffing at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates following intelligence warnings about increased Iranian efforts to target Americans. The embassies remain open under restricted operations, and the staffing changes differ from the ordered departure of nonessential personnel and families from Saudi Arabia. The precautions underscore the challenges of maintaining a diplomatic presence during a regional conflict. Embassies support communication with foreign governments, assist American citizens and provide information that helps guide U.S. policy. Reducing staff can limit personnel’s exposure to danger, but it also requires officials to reassess which activities can safely continue. Reported threats involving Iran-backed Houthi militants add another layer of complexity to those security decisions. The developments also raise questions about how Washington can protect its personnel while preserving channels for negotiation. U.S. officials have denied that the staffing reductions are connected to potential new American and Israeli strikes against Iran. The precautions nevertheless illustrate how intelligence warnings can affect diplomatic operations before an attack occurs—and how regional tensions can place Americans serving abroad at risk.

Oct 28, 2026

1 min

Inflation Puts Household Budgets—and Candidates—Under Pressure

Inflation is keeping affordability at the center of American life as voters prepare for the November 3 midterm elections. Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year ending in September, with gasoline and other everyday expenses adding pressure to household budgets. For families already adjusting their spending, persistent price increases can mean difficult decisions about groceries, transportation and discretionary purchases. Those pressures also create political challenges. President Donald Trump and Republican candidates are defending their economic record, while Democrats argue that the administration’s policies have made everyday life more expensive. Tariffs and energy disruptions associated with the Iran conflict have become central points of debate. Although growth and employment remain important measures of economic performance, voters often judge the economy through the expenses they encounter most frequently. The debate highlights a distinction that can become lost in campaign messaging: slowing inflation means prices are rising more slowly, rather than returning to earlier levels. Families may continue feeling financial strain even when economic indicators improve. As candidates offer competing solutions, the larger question is which policies can improve purchasing power while supporting employment and economic stability. The election will test how strongly Americans connect those daily financial pressures to the leaders seeking their votes.

Oct 26, 2026

1 min

Midterm Campaigns Enter Their Final Full Week

The final full week before the November 3 midterm elections is bringing a surge of campaign appearances, advertising and voter outreach as Republicans and Democrats compete for control of Congress. President Donald Trump and prominent Democratic leaders are campaigning across key states, while competitive races in places such as Mississippi illustrate how the political battleground has expanded. Republicans are defending their congressional majorities as Democrats seek to turn dissatisfaction with the administration into electoral gains. The stakes extend beyond which party wins the most seats. Congressional control helps determine which legislation advances, how federal spending priorities take shape and how closely lawmakers investigate executive branch decisions. Continued Republican control could help the president advance his agenda, while Democratic gains could create additional obstacles and strengthen congressional oversight. Voters are also choosing governors and other state officials whose decisions directly affect schools, public services and local economies. For campaigns, the closing days present a challenge: persuading undecided voters while ensuring existing supporters cast their ballots. For voters, the election offers an opportunity to evaluate both candidates’ promises and their ability to govern. The results will help shape the direction of national policy during the remaining two years of the president’s term.