According to some, the election is pretty much already over. There is no way Joe Biden can lose and there is absolutely no way Donald Trump can win.
The thing is a lot of people said that four years ago about Hillary Clinton.
There is a path to victory for Joe Biden, but unseating a sitting president is no easy task. It will take swinging several red states blue and not focusing on areas where President Trump may have fallen out of favor.
What to watch
Rust Belt's traditional battlegrounds:
- Trump’s chance of winning Michigan, which he carried by 11,000 votes in 2016, has been significantly reduced by the impact of COVID-19 in the state, which has suffered the fourth most deaths in the country.
- Pennsylvania has almost been as hard hit as Michigan (fifth most deaths).
- Of the three Rust Belt states, Trump is best positioned in Wisconsin, where his job approval has remained higher than the national average.
West and South emerge as new Democratic base:
- Seven western states — California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington — are firmly in the Democratic column.
- Six states in the South and Southwest — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia — are in various stages of becoming blue states.
- Outside of Virginia, which has already become a blue state, Arizona is the state most likely to transition to a Democratic base state as early as November.
May 17 – Axios
But as much as the playbook seems obvious – there will be pitfalls, landmines and barriers along the way. It is expected that this upcoming election will be divisive, expensive, and close. And President Trump has proven to be an effective and relentless campaigner.
If you are covering – then let our experts help with your questions and stories.
Mark Caleb Smith is the Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University. Mark is available to speak with media regarding the DNC Primary, running mates and the upcoming election. Simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.
