Featured Post from Aston University

Aston University AI expertise helps estimate daily transmission rates of infections such as Covid

Feb 3, 2023

3 min

Dr Felipe Campelo
  • Model used antibody data collected at blood donation centres
  • Data obtained allowed academics to estimate the proportion of people who were going undiagnosed
  • Current epidemiological models tend not to be as effective at estimating hidden variables such as daily infection rates.


Aston University researchers have helped develop a mathematical model which can estimate daily transmission rates of infections such as Covid by testing for antibodies in blood collected at blood donation centres.


Current epidemiological models that are usually used tend not to be as effective at adjusting quickly to changes in infection levels.


Working with researchers at the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Brazil they conducted a large longitudinal study applying a compartmental model, which is a general modelling technique often applied to the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases, to results obtained from Brazilian blood donor centres. The testing was done by Fundacao Hemominas, one of the largest blood services in Brazil, which covers an area similar to that of continental France.


They used the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 cases along with serology results (diagnostic methods used to identify antibodies and antigens in patients’ samples) from blood donors as inputs and delivered estimates of hidden variables, such as daily values of transmission rates and cumulative incidence rate of reported and unreported cases.


The model discussed in the paper SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil gave the experts the ability to have a more refined view of the infection rates and relative rate of immunity compared to official measurements.


The testing started at the beginning of the pandemic and involved 7,837 blood donors in seven cities in Minas Gerais, Brazil during March–December 2020. At that point testing wasn’t widely available and there was a high proportion of undetected asymptomatic or light symptomatic cases. The data obtained allowed the experts to estimate the proportion of people who were going undiagnosed.


Dr Felipe Campelo, senior lecturer in computer science at Aston University, said:


“Public communication about the COVID-19 epidemic was based on officially reported cases in the community, which strongly underestimates the actual spread of the disease in the absence of widespread testing.


“This difference underscores the convenience of using a model-based approach such as the one we proposed, because it enables the use of measured data for estimating variables such as the total number of infected persons.


“Our model delivers daily estimates of relevant variables that usually stay hidden, including the transmission rate and the cumulative number of reported and unreported cases of infection.”


In Brazil in July 2020 there was a sharp increase in the number of people tested as new infrastructure became available, which allowed the experts to further validate their methodology by observing how officially recorded data became closer to the model predictions once testing became more widespread, including for asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people.


They applied the model to antibodies found in blood given by donors and used it to estimate the proportion of undiagnosed cases, and to analyse changes in the infection rate, that is, how many people each case infected on average. Previously this has been viewed as a fixed value or a fixed value over a long duration of time, but the dynamics of the spread of Covid change much faster than that. This aspect was very important in early days of the pandemic and could also be applied to similar diseases.


Looking forward, the experts aim to improve the accuracy of the model by introducing changes to account for vaccination effects, waning immunity and the potential emergence of new variants.


The paper SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil has been published in Volume 28, Number 4—April 2022 of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Connect with:
Dr Felipe Campelo

Dr Felipe Campelo

Senior Lecturer, Computer Science

Dr Campelo works in data science. He creates solution pipelines integrating data mining, optimisation and multicriteria decision support.

OptimisationComputational IntelligenceData MiningData Science

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Aston University

3 min

EU-UK Trade Deal continues to stifle trade with 27% drop in exports since 2021

New report shows persistent stifling effects of the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK-EU trade relations Monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU between 2021 and 2023 Recommendations for policy interventions include to negotiate sector-specific deals, engage with individual EU countries, and work on reducing non-tariff barriers A comprehensive analysis by researchers at the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University reveals that negative impacts of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have intensified over time. The new report, Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit, also shows a 33% reduction in the variety of goods exported, with the agricultural, textiles, clothing and materials sectors most affected. To assess the impact of the UK-EU TCA, the authors analysed monthly import and export between the UK and the EU, from January 2017 to December 2023 and separated into pre- and post-January 2021 when the agreement came into force. The monthly data shows a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% decline in imports from the EU. Lead author, Professor Jun Du of Aston University says: “The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports. Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.” The UK-EU TCA redefined trade and investment rules and market access between the UK and the EU. Since it came into force, the UK government has negotiated several trade agreements, but the EU remains the UK’s largest trade partner. Exports for most sectors have decreased since January 2021, although the impact is varied. Agrifood, textile and clothing and material-based manufacturing have been among the hardest hit, with substantial declines in both export value and the variety of products exported. At the same time, some sectors such as tobacco, railway and aircraft manufacturing have seen modest increases in varieties of products exported. On the import side, most sectors have shrunk in both value and variety, particularly agrifood products, optical, textile and material-based manufacturing. A few sectors, for example, ships and furniture, have demonstrated noticeable increases in import product variety. The large variations across different goods categories and EU trade partners underscore the uneven effects of Brexit and the TCA on UK-EU trade dynamics, highlighting the need to understand the nuances and come up with tailored strategies that address the unique challenges of each sector within the new regulatory environment. The researchers make recommendations, outlining how sector-specific negotiations, streamlining customs procedures with digital technologies and reducing regulatory divergence could mitigate some of the impacts. Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, the report’s co-author says: “Our findings indicate a decoupling of the UK from key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports. “This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness.” Professor Du continues: “The TCA has introduced considerable barriers to UK-EU trade, particularly through increased Non-tariff measures (NTMs). “Addressing these issues through targeted improvements to the TCA is crucial to ensuring that UK businesses remain competitive in the European market. A structured, multi-faceted approach is necessary.” To find out more about these findings, click here.

4 min

Five ways going green can improve your bottom line: A guide for West Midlands SMEs

As sustainability becomes a central focus for businesses across the globe, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the West Midlands are uniquely positioned to benefit from going green. Whether you're running a corner shop, a hairdressing salon, a manufacturing operation, or any other type of small business, sustainable practices can significantly enhance your bottom line. Here are five key ways that adopting green strategies can lead to financial gains. Reduced operational costs One of the most immediate and tangible benefits of going green is the reduction in operational costs. Energy efficiency, waste reduction, and resource conservation are all areas where small changes can lead to significant savings. For instance, simply switching to energy-efficient lighting can reduce electricity bills by up to 75 per cent—a substantial saving for any business, particularly for small retailers or service providers where margins can be tight. Additionally, the UK government offers incentives to help businesses transition to more energy-efficient operations, making it easier for SMEs to invest in these changes. Join Aston University’s workshop on 18 September and take advantage of a free energy assessment for your business. Learn practical steps to audit your energy use and uncover cost-saving opportunities tailored to your specific industry needs. Access to new markets and opportunities As the UK government and local authorities push for a greener economy, there are growing opportunities for businesses that align with these goals. SMEs that adopt sustainable practices may qualify for grants, tax reliefs, and other incentives designed to support green initiatives. For example, local councils in the West Midlands have programmes such as ‘BEAS and Decarbonisation Net Zero’ aimed at helping small businesses reduce their carbon footprint, which can be especially beneficial for almost all sectors where environmental impact is a growing concern. At the workshop, we’ll delve into the funding options and partnerships available to West Midlands SMEs committed to sustainability, helping you unlock new growth opportunities. Increased marketability Consumers are increasingly favouring businesses that demonstrate a commitment to sustainability. According to a study by Nielsen, 66 per cent of global consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable goods, and this trend is evident in the UK as well. By adopting green practices, SMEs in the West Midlands can enhance their brand reputation. This can translate to increased sales, customer loyalty, and even the ability to charge premium prices for sustainable products or services. In a competitive market, your environmental credentials can be a powerful differentiator. Attend Aston University’s workshop to learn from real-life success stories and see how businesses are already turning sustainability into a competitive advantage. Long-term resilience and competitiveness Sustainability isn’t just about immediate financial gains; it’s also about future-proofing your business. As regulations around carbon emissions and environmental impact become stricter, businesses that have already integrated green practices will find it easier to comply, avoiding potential fines and disruptions. For SMEs in sectors like manufacturing, where regulatory pressures are particularly high, adopting sustainable practices now can help ensure long-term competitiveness and resilience. A prime example of this shift is the NHS, which is actively working towards a Net Zero supply chain by 2045. The NHS is urging its suppliers to adopt sustainable practices, with a strong focus on reducing carbon emissions. Businesses that fail to align with these expectations risk losing contracts and falling behind competitors who are meeting these sustainability criteria. At the workshop, you'll learn more about sustainability strategy that can keep your business competitive and resilient in an ever-changing market. Enhanced employee engagement and productivity Increasingly, employees are seeking to work for companies that align with their personal values, including a commitment to sustainability. While this trend is more pronounced among larger companies, it’s also becoming relevant for small businesses, particularly those in industries where attracting and retaining talent is competitive. According to research, 74 per cent of employees feel more fulfilled when they work for a company that is making a positive impact on the environment. For small businesses, fostering a sustainable workplace can enhance employee morale, attract top talent, and reduce turnover rates. However, the degree to which this resonates can depend on your specific workforce. In sectors like tech, professional services, or among younger employees, sustainability is often a key consideration. On the other hand, in some more traditional industries, other factors like job security and compensation might be more important, though sustainability still adds value. Sign up for our workshop to discover how your small or medium business—regardless of sector—can implement effective sustainability practices and energy efficiency strategies to drive growth. This event is open to all SMEs across the West Midlands! Click here to register now. You'll also have the opportunity to book a free energy assessment on the spot and apply for match funding of up to £100,000 to make your business more energy efficient.

4 min

Aston University develops novel bone cancer therapy which has 99% success rate

Bioactive glasses, doped with gallium developed to create a potential treatment for bone cancer Lab tests have a 99 percent success rate of killing cancerous cells Method could also regenerate diseased bones. Bioactive glasses, a filling material which can bond to tissue and improve the strength of bones and teeth, has been combined with gallium to create a potential treatment for bone cancer. Tests in labs have found that bioactive glasses doped with the metal have a 99 percent success rate of eliminating cancerous cells and can even regenerate diseased bones. The research was conducted by a team of Aston University scientists led by Professor Richard Martin who is based in its College of Engineering and Physical Sciences. In laboratory tests 99% of osteosarcoma (bone cancer) cells were killed off without destroying non-cancerous normal human bone cells. The researchers also incubated the bioactive glasses in a simulated body fluid and after seven days they detected the early stages of bone formation. Gallium is highly toxic, and the researchers found that the ‘greedy’ cancer cells soak it up and self-kill, which prevented the healthy cells from being affected. Their research paper Multifunctional Gallium doped bioactive glasses: a targeted delivery for antineoplastic agents and tissue repair against osteosarcoma has been published in the journal Biomedical Materials. Osteosarcoma is the mostly commonly occurring primary bone cancer and despite the use of chemotherapy and surgery to remove tumours survival rates have not improved much since the 1970s. Survival rates are dramatically reduced for patients who have a recurrence and primary bone cancer patients are more susceptible to bone fractures. Despite extensive research on different types of bioactive glass or ceramics for bone tissue engineering, there is limited research on targeted and controlled release of anti-cancer agents to treat bone cancers. Professor Martin said: “There is an urgent need for improved treatment options and our experiments show significant potential for use in bone cancer applications as part of a multimodal treatment. “We believe that our findings could lead to a treatment that is more effective and localised, reducing side effects, and can even regenerate diseased bones. “When we observed the glasses, we could see the formation of a layer of amorphous calcium phosphate/ hydroxy apatite layer on the surface of the bioactive glass particulates, which indicates bone growth.” The glasses were created in the Aston University labs by rapidly cooling very high temperature molten liquids (1450o C) to form glass. The glasses were then ground and sieved into tiny particles which can then be used for treatment. In previous research the team achieved a 50 percent success rate but although impressive this was not enough to be a potential treatment. The team are now hoping to attract more research funding to conduct trials using gallium. Dr Lucas Souza, research laboratory manager for the Dubrowsky Regenerative Medicine Laboratory at the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, Birmingham worked on the research with Professor Martin. He added: “The safety and effectiveness of these biomaterials will need to be tested further, but the initial results are really promising. “Treatments for a bone cancer diagnosis remain very limited and there’s still much we don’t understand. Research like this is vital to support in the development of new drugs and new methodologies for treatment options.” Notes to Editors Multifunctional Gallium doped bioactive glasses: a targeted delivery for antineoplastic agents and tissue repair against osteosarcoma Shirin B. Hanaei1, Raghavan C. Murugesan1, Lucas Souza1, Juan I.C. Miranda1, Lee Jeys2,3, Ivan B. Wall3, and Richard A. Martin1 1. College of Engineering and Physical Sciences. Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK 2. Oncology Department, The Royal Orthopaedic Hospital, Birmingham, B31 2AP, UK 3. College of Health and Life Sciences. Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B4 7ET, UK DOI 10.1088/1748-605X/ad76f1 About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming The Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

View all posts
Powered by