What do you expect for holiday shopping trends this year?

Like most other years in recent history, most of the bodies forecasting holiday spending are predicting increases in total sales. The National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting a growth rate of 4%, with sales totaling over $1 trillion. Other bodies like Simon Kucher, a pricing consultancy, project increases of over 7%, and Visa was projecting roughly 10% raises in gift spending. While these figures always vary between entities due to different specific formulas, it appears that some of the higher numbers were released earlier in the year, suggesting that later numbers may be reflecting a more up-to-date market forecast.

Interestingly, this projected increase is happening despite many bodies, including the NRF, suggesting a decrease in planned per person spending. This suggests that the population growth of consumers might explain the increase in total sales for retailers, even if there’s a true decrease per person.

We may also begin to see the impacts of tariffs on pricing in the holiday shopping season.

This is supported by the Visa report, which suggests real spending growth of 2.2%, indicating that fewer items are being purchased despite revenue increases.