How might the current economic climate affect consumer spending this holiday season?

This is where we start to see the effects of what some might call a “two-tier economy.” The higher spending might be driven by the more affluent consumers who are more financially sound, while other data suggest that as many as 1 in 4 households are living paycheck to paycheck, making increased spending for them unlikely.

We’re also seeing projections for certain demographic groups at much lower spend projections. Nearly 20% of the population intends to spend less, according to Visa. PWC is projecting spending declines of 5%, and GenZ responses indicate a 23% drop in planned spending.

But there are many ways you split segments. People who are concerned about tariffs are planning to spend 10% less, according to PWC. People with kids will tend to spend more than last year, while people without kids will spend less than last year, according to NRF projections. So, it really does come down to individual-level financial and other factors. This may very much be a situation where the affluent drive the average numbers.