Josh Clinton

Abby and Jon Winkelried Professor of Political Science Vanderbilt University

  • Nashville TN

Polling expert who uses statistical methods to explain political processes. Co-directs the Vanderbilt Poll.

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How Americans Want Colleges to Teach Thinking — And Why the Experts from Vanderbilt Say This Moment Matters

A new national Unity Poll from Vanderbilt University shows overwhelming agreement among Americans on one core belief: colleges should teach students how to think, not what to think. At a time when higher education is under intense political and cultural scrutiny, this finding reveals an unexpected area of unity. Amid debates over free speech, curriculum design, and the purpose of a degree, Americans are signaling a shared expectation for colleges to cultivate critical thinking and reasoning — not ideological conformity. For journalists, observers or anyone keeping a close eye on post-secondary education,  this is a rare lens into what the public actually wants from higher education, and a timely point of entry into stories about academic freedom, the value of a college degree, political polarization, and workforce readiness. “Many observers think current debates about the nature of higher education are relatively new but they are not,” said John Geer, co-director of the Vanderbilt Unity Poll and professor of political science. “The country, for example, was debating the purpose, value and direction of higher education in the 1940s when the federal government made major investments in research and teaching during and after World War II.” “People want colleges and professors to teach students how to think, not what to think,” added Vanderbilt Poll Co-Director Josh Clinton, who holds the Abby and Jon Winkelried Chair at Vanderbilt and is a professor of political science. “The public most highly values those parts of higher education that help students think critically, process information and contribute meaningfully to society. The closer you get to subjects and content that has associations with contemporary political divisions, the more you see public support fracture.” John Geer and Josh Clinton, Co-Directors of the Vanderbilt Unity Poll and Professors of Political Science, are among the nation’s leading experts on public opinion, political behavior and democratic attitudes. With decades of research experience and multiple national polls under their leadership, Geer and Clinton bring essential context to these findings. Their perspective helps media interpret not only the data itself, but the broader social forces shaping how Americans view higher education, institutional trust and the role of colleges in preparing the next generation. What the Data Reveals: 1. A Return to Fundamentals: The Public Wants Critical Thinking Above All Ninety percent of Americans say “the ability to think more logically” is extremely or very important for their children to gain from college. Factual knowledge matters too, but the public places higher value on reasoning, analysis and cognitive skill-building. Geer can help illuminate why this shift is resonating so strongly now — and what it suggests about the changing expectations placed on colleges and universities. 2. A Rare Point of Consensus in a Polarized Era The emphasis on teaching students how to think cuts across political, geographic and demographic lines. Geer notes that agreement of this magnitude is increasingly uncommon in today’s contentious climate. This story angle gives journalists a data-driven counterpoint to the typical “campus culture wars” narrative — showing where unity still exists and why. 3. Is College Worth It? Depends How You Ask When asked about long-term value, a majority of Americans say a college degree is worth the time because it opens better job prospects. But when the question focuses on financial cost, support drops significantly. Geer and Clinton can walk reporters through why perceptions differ depending on how “value” is framed — and how these attitudes influence choices about pursuing postsecondary education. 4. Americans Oppose Government Control of College Teaching Most respondents say the federal government should not direct how professors teach. This adds nuance to ongoing debates about curriculum oversight, classroom autonomy and political influence in higher education. Geer and Clinton’s expertise help explain how this preference aligns with longstanding public attitudes about institutional independence. 5. Curriculum Flashpoints Reveal Sharp Divides While many Americans agree on the need for core historical and civic content, support fragments around politically charged topics. Issues such as gender identity, sexual orientation, and certain cultural topics show much lower consensus. Read the full article and report here:

Josh ClintonJohn Geer

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Biography

Clinton (Ph.D. Political Science, M.S. Statistics, and M.A. Economics from Stanford University) uses statistical methods to better understand political processes and outcomes. He is interested in: the politics in the U.S. Congress, public opinion, campaigns and elections, and the uses and abuses of statistical methods for understanding political phenomena. His peer-reviewed publications have appeared in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, Legislative Studies Quarterly, and the Annual Review of Political Science. He is an Editor-In-Chief for the Quarterly Journal of Political Science and he is currently serving on the Editorial Board of Journal of Public Policy. He is currently the Director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions and a Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll.

Areas of Expertise

Voters
Tennessee Politics
Polling
American Politics
Political Polls
Political Climate in Tennessee
Political Methodology
Public Opinion
Voter Behavior and Attitudes

Accomplishments

Journal of Politics Best Paper Award

2011, For “More A Molehill than a Mountain: the Effects of the Blanket Primary on Elected Officials’ Behavior From California.” With Will Bullock.

Stanley E. Kelley Teaching Award

2009, Dept. of Politics, Princeton University

Patrick J. Fett Award

2014, for “the best paper on the scientific study of Congress and the Presidency” at 2013 MPSA

Education

Stanford University

Ph.D.

Political Science

2003

Stanford University

M.S.

Statistics

2001

Stanford University

M.A.

Economics

2000

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Affiliations

  • Quarterly Journal of Political Science : Editor-In-Chief
  • Journal of Public Policy : Editorial Board Member

Selected Media Appearances

Once again, polls underestimated Trump. Experts only have a hunch why

Reuters  online

2024-11-20

Vanderbilt University political scientist Josh Clinton, who led a task force analyzing how surveys performed in the 2020 election cycle, said he was worried that the apparent mismeasurement could amplify its possible cause: public distrust of polling and of political institutions writ large.

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The Polls Were Right! But Also They Weren’t.

U.S. News & World Report  online

2024-11-12

The polls “were better than they were in the past, but they still kind of fundamentally understated Trump in a way that I think that the public won’t find particularly satisfactory,” Josh Clinton, a professor of political science and co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll at Vanderbilt University, tells me. “So to say that you got close, but you still understated Trump is like, close but no cigar.”

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Pollsters Were Blindsided by Breadth of Trump Win

The Wall Street Journal  online

2024-11-07

“Pollsters—given the crudeness of the data available to them—they weren’t horrible this time,” said Josh Clinton, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, who led a polling trade association’s postmortem in 2020. That look back found that pre-election polls were the most inaccurate in 40 years.

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Selected Articles

Who Participated in the ACA? Gains in Insurance Coverage by Political Partisanship

Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law

Michael W. Sances ; Joshua D. Clinton

2019

Context: The authors examined whether participation in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) differed by political partisanship. Answering this question is important for understanding how contentious elite-level decision making and discourse may affect policy uptake, and the ability of the ACA to create a constituency of beneficiaries invested in its support.

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Knockout Blows or the Status Quo? Momentum in the 2016 Primaries

The Journal of Politics

Joshua D. Clinton, Andrew M. Engelhardt, and Marc J. Trussler

2019

Notions of momentum loom large in accounts of presidential primaries despite imprecision about its meaning and measurement. Defining momentum as the impact election outcomes have on candidate support above and beyond existing trends and leveraging a rolling cross section of more than 325,000 interviews to examine daily changes in candidate support in the 2016 nomination contests reveal scant evidence that primary election outcomes uniquely affect respondents’ preferences over the competing candidates.

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Lawmaking in American Legislatures: an empirical investigation

Journal of Public Policy

Joshua D. Clinton and Mark D. Richardson

2019

Given pervasive gridlock at the national level, state legislatures are increasingly the place where notable policy change occurs. Investigating such change is difficult because it is often hard to characterise policy change and use observable data to evaluate theoretical predictions; it is subsequently unclear whether law-making explanations focusing on the US Congress also apply to state legislatures.

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