Featured Post from Aston University

EU-UK Trade Deal continues to stifle trade with 27% drop in exports since 2021

Sep 17, 2024

3 min

Jun DuDr Oleksandr Shepotylo
CaptionResizeWrap TextRemove


  • New report shows persistent stifling effects of the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement on UK-EU trade relations
  • Monthly data show a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU between 2021 and 2023
  • Recommendations for policy interventions include to negotiate sector-specific deals, engage with individual EU countries, and work on reducing non-tariff barriers


A comprehensive analysis by researchers at the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University reveals that negative impacts of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have intensified over time.


The new report, Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit, also shows a 33% reduction in the variety of goods exported, with the agricultural, textiles, clothing and materials sectors most affected.


To assess the impact of the UK-EU TCA, the authors analysed monthly import and export between the UK and the EU, from January 2017 to December 2023 and separated into pre- and post-January 2021 when the agreement came into force. The monthly data shows a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% decline in imports from the EU.


Lead author, Professor Jun Du of Aston University says: “The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports. Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.”


The UK-EU TCA redefined trade and investment rules and market access between the UK and the EU. Since it came into force, the UK government has negotiated several trade agreements, but the EU remains the UK’s largest trade partner.


Exports for most sectors have decreased since January 2021, although the impact is varied. Agrifood, textile and clothing and material-based manufacturing have been among the hardest hit, with substantial declines in both export value and the variety of products exported. At the same time, some sectors such as tobacco, railway and aircraft manufacturing have seen modest increases in varieties of products exported.


On the import side, most sectors have shrunk in both value and variety, particularly agrifood products, optical, textile and material-based manufacturing. A few sectors, for example, ships and furniture, have demonstrated noticeable increases in import product variety.


The large variations across different goods categories and EU trade partners underscore the uneven effects of Brexit and the TCA on UK-EU trade dynamics, highlighting the need to understand the nuances and come up with tailored strategies that address the unique challenges of each sector within the new regulatory environment.


The researchers make recommendations, outlining how sector-specific negotiations, streamlining customs procedures with digital technologies and reducing regulatory divergence could mitigate some of the impacts.


Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, the report’s co-author says:


“Our findings indicate a decoupling of the UK from key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports.


“This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness.”


Professor Du continues:


“The TCA has introduced considerable barriers to UK-EU trade, particularly through increased Non-tariff measures (NTMs).


“Addressing these issues through targeted improvements to the TCA is crucial to ensuring that UK businesses remain competitive in the European market. A structured, multi-faceted approach is necessary.”


To find out more about these findings, click here.

Connect with:
Jun Du

Jun Du

Professor of Economics

Professor Du's main research interest is to understand the driving forces and impediments of productivity enhancement and economic growth.

EconomicsTrade
Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo

Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo

Senior Lecturer, Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship

Dr Shepotylo seeks to answer the question of how do firms, industries, and countries grow by integrating into global markets.

Spatial EconomicsProductivityInternational TradeHB Economic TheoryTrade Policy

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Aston University

5 min

Aston University and Birmingham Women and Children’s Hospital developing new devices to improve drug treatment safety

The new device is designed to reduce the risk of injuries when medicines being delivered into a vein enter the surrounding tissues It detects this problem at the earliest stages, before it is visible to the human eye The project is being supported by SPARK The Midlands at Aston University, a network to support technology development for unmet clinical needs. Clinicians at Birmingham Women’s and Children's NHS Foundation Trust (BWC) have joined with academics at Aston University to create an innovative sensor to reduce the risk of injuries caused when drugs being delivered into a vein enter the surrounding tissue. This complication, called extravasation, can cause harm and, in the most severe cases, life-changing injuries and permanent scarring. It happens most often when infusing medicines into peripheral intravenous (IV) devices, such as a cannula, but can also occur when infusing into a central venous access device. By joining together, BWC and Aston University are combining clinical, academic and engineering expertise to create a sensor that can detect extravasation at its earliest stages. Karl Emms, lead nurse for patient safety at BWC, said: “We've done lots of work across our Trust that has successfully reduced incidents. While we've made fantastic progress, there is only so much we can do as early signs of extravasation can be difficult to detect with the human eye. “The next step is to develop a technology that can do what people can't - detection as it happens. This will make a huge impact on outcomes as the faster we can detect extravasation, the less likely it is that it will cause serious harm.” The focused work to date addressing the issue has recently been recognised by the Nursing Times Awards 2024, winning the Patient Safety Improvement title for this year. This new project is supported by SPARK The Midlands, a network at Aston University dedicated to providing academic support to advance healthcare research discoveries in the region. SPARK The Midlands is the first UK branch of Stanford University's prestigious global SPARK programme. It comes as a result of Aston University’s active involvement in the delivery of the West Midlands Health Tech Innovation Accelerator (WMHTIA) – a government-funded project aimed at helping companies drive their innovations towards market success. The SPARK scheme helps to provide mentorship and forge networks between researchers, those with technical and specialist knowledge and potential sources of funding. SPARK members have access to workshops led by industry experts, covering topics such as medical device regulations, establishing good clinical trials, and creating an enticing target product profile to engage future funders. Luke Southan, head of research commercialisation at Aston University and SPARK UK director, said: “I was blown away when Karl first brought this idea to me. I knew we had to do everything we could to make this a reality. This project has the potential to transform the standard of care for a genuine clinical need, which is what SPARK is all about.” Work on another potentially transformative project has also begun as the team are working to develop a medical device that detects the position of a nasogastric feeding tube. There is a risk of serious harm and danger to life if nasogastric tubes move into the lungs, rather than the stomach, and feed is passed through them. Emms explained: “pH test strips can usually detect nasogastric tube misplacement, but some children undergoing treatment can have altered pH levels in the stomach. This means this test sometimes does not work. “A medical device that can detect misplacement can potentially stop harm and fatalities caused by these incidents.” SPARK will bring together engineers, academics and clinicians for both projects to develop the devices for clinical trial, with a goal of the technologies being ready for clinical use in three to five years. Southan said: “BWC is one of our first partners at SPARK and we're really excited to work with them to make a vital impact on paediatric healthcare in the Midlands and beyond." Notes to editors About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming the Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Helen Tunnicliffe, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7827 090240 or email: h.tunnicliffe@aston.ac.uk About Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust (BWC) brings together the very best in paediatric and women’s care in the region and is proud to have many UK and world-leading surgeons, doctors, nurses, midwives and other allied healthcare professionals on its team. Birmingham Children’s Hospital is the UK’s leading specialist paediatric centre, caring for sick children and young people between 0 and 16 years of age. Based in the heart of Birmingham city centre, the hospital is a world leader in some of the most advanced treatments, complex surgical procedures and cutting-edge research and development. It is a nationally designated specialist centre for epilepsy surgery and also boasts a paediatric major trauma centre for the West Midlands, a national liver and small bowel transplant centre and a centre of excellence for complex heart conditions, the treatment of burns, cancer and liver and kidney disease. The hospital is also home to one of the largest Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in the country, comprising of a dedicated inpatient Eating Disorder Unit and Acute Assessment Unit for regional referrals of children and young people with the most serious of problems (Tier 4) and Forward Thinking Birmingham community mental health service for 0- to 25-year-olds. Birmingham Women’s Hospital is a centre of excellence, providing a range of specialist health care services to over 50,000 women and their families every year from Birmingham, the West Midlands and beyond. As well as delivering more than 8,200 babies a year, it offers a full range of gynaecological, maternity and neonatal care, as well as a comprehensive genetics service, which serves men and women. Its Fertility Centre is one of the best in the country, while the fetal medicine centre receives regional and national referrals. The hospital is also an international centre for education, research and development with a research budget of over £3 million per year. It also hosts the national miscarriage research centre – the first of its kind in the UK - in partnership with Tommy’s baby charity. For interview requests please email the Communications Team on bwc.communications@nhs.net

3 min

Aston University researcher develops new optical technique that could revolutionise medical diagnostics

New light technique could revolutionise non-invasive medical diagnostics Orbital Angular Momentum could be harnessed to improve imaging and data transmission through biological tissues Could eventually have potential to make procedures such as surgery or biopsies unnecessary. An Aston University researcher has developed a new technique using light which could revolutionise non-invasive medical diagnostics and optical communication. The research showcases how a type of light called the Orbital Angular Momentum (OAM) can be harnessed to improve imaging and data transmission through skin and other biological tissues. A team led by Professor Igor Meglinski found that OAM light has unmatched sensitivity and accuracy that could result in making procedures such as surgery or biopsies unnecessary. In addition it could enable doctors to track the progression of diseases and plan appropriate treatment options. OAM is defined as a type of structured light beams, which are light fields which have a tailored spatial structure. Often referred to as vortex beams, they have previously been applied to a number of developments in different applications including astronomy, microscopy, imaging, metrology, sensing, and optical communications. Professor Meglinski in collaboration with researchers from the University of Oulu, Finland conducted the research which is detailed in the paper “Phase preservation of orbital angular momentum of light in multiple scattering environment” which is published in the Nature journal Light Science & Application. The paper has since been named as one of the year’s most exciting pieces of research by international optics and photonics membership organisation, Optica. The study reveals that OAM retains its phase characteristics even when passing through highly scattering media, unlike regular light signals. This means it can detect extremely small changes with an accuracy of up to 0.000001 on the refractive index, far surpassing the capabilities of many current diagnostic technologies. Professor Meglinski who is based at Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies said: “By showing that OAM light can travel through turbid or cloudy and scattering media, the study opens up new possibilities for advanced biomedical applications. “For example, this technology could lead to more accurate and non-invasive ways to monitor blood glucose levels, providing an easier and less painful method for people with diabetes.” The research team conducted a series of controlled experiments, transmitting OAM beams through media with varying levels of turbidity and refractive indices. They used advanced detection techniques, including interferometry and digital holography, to capture and analyse the light's behaviour. They found that the consistency between experimental results and theoretical models highlighted the ability of the OAM-based approach. The researchers believe that their study’s findings pave the way for a range of transformative applications. By adjusting the initial phase of OAM light, they believe that revolutionary advancements in fields such as secure optical communication systems and advanced biomedical imaging will be possible in the future. Professor Meglinski added: "The potential for precise, non-invasive transcutaneous glucose monitoring represents a significant leap forward in medical diagnostics. “My team’s methodological framework and experimental validations provide a comprehensive understanding of how OAM light interacts with complex scattering environments, reinforcing its potential as a versatile technology for future optical sensing and imaging challenges.” ENDS https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-024-01562-7 Light: Science & Applications volume 13, Article number: 214 (2024) August 2024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41377-024-01562-7 Authors: Igor Meglinski, Ivan Lopushenko, Anton Sdobnov & Alexander Bykov About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming The Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

2 min

Aston University researchers to explore using AI and fibre-optic networks to monitor natural hazards and infrastructures

Aston University is leading a new £5.5 million EU research project Will focus on converting fibre-optic cables into sensors to detect natural hazards Could identify earthquakes and tsunamis and assess civil infrastructure. Aston University is leading a new £5.5 million EU research project to explore converting existing telecommunication fibre-optic cables into sensors which can detect natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, and assess the condition of civil infrastructure. The project is called ECSTATIC (Engineering Combined Sensing and Telecommunications Architectures for Tectonic and Infrastructure Characterisation) and is part of the Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Action (RIA), which aims to tackle global challenges and boost the continent’s industrial competitiveness. Converting telecom fibres into sensors requires new digital signal processing to overcome the limited data storage and processing capabilities of existing communication networks. To address this the project will use localised, high performance digital processing that will integrate artificial intelligence and machine learning. The researchers’ goal is to minimise algorithms’ complexity while providing extremely accurate real-time sensing of events and network condition. The new laser interrogation and signal processing technologies will be tested using existing fibre optic networks, including those underwater, in cities, and along railway infrastructure to assess their potential. Delivered by a consortium of 14 partners across seven countries, from academic and non-academic sectors, the research will start in February 2025 and will last three and a half years. The Europe-wide team will be led by Professor David Webb who is based in the Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies (AIPT). Professor Webb said: “There are more than five billion kilometres of installed data communications optical fibre cable, which provides an opportunity to create a globe-spanning network of fibre sensors, without laying any new fibres. “These traverse the seas and oceans - where conventional sensors are practically non-existent - and major infrastructures, offering the potential for smart structural health monitoring.” Professor Webb will be joined by fellow researchers Professor Sergei Turitsyn, Dr Haris Alexakis and Dr Pedro Freire. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

View all posts
Powered by