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Venezuela: Why Regime Change Is Harder Than Removing A Leader

Conflict scholar Hein Goemans and democracy expert Gretchen Helmke weigh in on why “decapitation” strategies often fail — and what they mean for global stability.

Jan 7, 2026

2 min

With global attention on Venezuela following the U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro, one of the central questions is whether taking out a leader actually changes the political system that put him in power.

Two University of Rochester political scientists — Hein Goemans and Gretchen Helmke — study different sides of this issue, and can shed light on why authoritarian regimes often survive even when leaders fall and what the U.S. intervention means for Venezuela and the world order.

Goemans specializes in how wars begin and end, regime survival, and why so-called “decapitation strategies” — removing a leader without dismantling the broader power structure — so often fail to produce stable outcomes. His research draws on cases ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to authoritarian regimes in Latin America.

In a recent interview with WXXI Public Media, Goemans warned that removing Maduro does not resolve the underlying system of military and economic control that sustained his rule. Without changes to those institutions, he said, power is likely to remain concentrated among the same elite networks.

“The problem isn’t just the leader,” Goemans explained. “It’s the structure that rewards loyalty and punishes defection. If that remains intact, the politics don’t fundamentally change.”

Helmke, a leading scholar of democracy and authoritarianism in Latin America, emphasizes that legitimacy, not just force, determines whether democratic transitions take hold.

Her research helps explain why democratic breakthroughs so often stall after moments of dramatic change, and why outside interventions can unintentionally weaken domestic opposition movements by shifting power toward regime insiders.

“When the institutions and elites remain in place, uncertainty — not democratic transition — often becomes the dominant political reality,” she said.

For journalists covering the fast-moving situation, Goemans and Helmke are available to discuss why removing leaders rarely brings the political transformation policymakers expect and what history suggests comes next. They can address:

• Why regime-change operations so often backfire, even when dictators are deeply unpopular

• What sidelining democratic opposition means for legitimacy

• Whether U.S. claims that Maduro is illegitimate hold up under international and U.S. law

• How prosecuting a foreign leader in U.S. courts could reshape norms of sovereignty

• The risks the U.S. intervention poses to the rules-based international order and NATO

• How interventions affect international norms, including sovereignty and the rule of law, and why short-term tactical successes can create long-term strategic risks.

• Why treating global politics as a series of “one-off” power plays misunderstands how states actually enforce norms over time

• How competing factions inside the U.S. administration may be driving incoherent foreign policy

Geomans also brings rare insight into the internal dynamics of U.S. policymaking, having taught and observed Stephen Miller, one of President Donald Trump’s closest aides who is helping shape the administration’s worldview. (Goemans taught Miller at Duke University in 2003.)

Click on the profiles for Goemans and Helmke to connect with them.

Connect with:

Hein Goemans

Professor of Political Science

Goemans is an expert on international conflict and war termination

UkraineInternational Conflict War terminationInternational RelationsWar and Conflict

Gretchen Helmke

The Thomas H. Jackson Distinguished University Professor of Political Science

Professor Helmke's research focuses on democratic political institutions, rule of law, and Latin American politics.

Bright Line WatchLatin American PoliticsDemocratic Political InstitutionsRule of LawInstitutional crises in Latin America

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Jul 8, 2026

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Jun 15, 2026

2 min

Research Matters: Water, Water Everywhere — and Lots to Drink

Researchers at the University of Rochester have discovered a better way to turn seawater into drinking water as climate change, population growth, and drought intensify pressure on freshwater supplies. Desalination, as the process of converting saltwater to freshwater is known, has been used for some time. But desalination methods commonly used today have significant drawbacks: they require large amounts of energy and generate brine waste that can damage marine ecosystems. Enter University of Rochester optics and physics professor Chunlei Guo and his research team, who have developed a solar-thermal desalination technology that converts seawater into drinking water without chemical additives and without producing the harmful brine. Their system uses a specially engineered solar panel made of “superwicking” black metal etched with ultrafast lasers that allow it to absorb light and attract water. The panels have a laser-treated “active” region that pulls a think layer of water across the surface, absorbs sunlight, distills the water, and deposits leftover salts and minerals onto the untreated “passive” region. The technology also transforms waste into a resource. Instead of generating brine, the process captures salts in solid form, creating opportunities to recover valuable minerals. Guo's team has already demonstrated the ability to extract lithium, a critical component in rechargeable batteries, from salt-rich water sources. For reporters covering sustainability innovation, Guo is available to discuss: • Why desalination is becoming increasingly important worldwide • The environmental challenges associated with current desalination technologies • How solar-powered desalination works • The role of advanced materials and laser engineering in water purification • Recovering valuable minerals such as lithium from seawater • The future of sustainable water and resource management With an estimated 2.2 billion people worldwide lacking access to safely managed drinking water, Guo's research offers a glimpse of how next-generation technologies could help address both global water shortages and growing demand for critical minerals. Researchers recently explained their method in a paper published in Light: Science & Applications. Journalists can connect with Guo by contacting Luke Auburn, director of communications at the University of Rochester’s Hajim School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, at luke.auburn@rochester.edu.

Jun 8, 2026

2 min

Spielberg's "Disclosure Day" Revives the UFO Debate. But What Would Real 'Disclosure' Mean?

What if the government finally revealed the truth about UFOs and extraterrestrial visitors? That’s the premise of the new Steven Spielberg film “Disclosure Day,” which the director has said was inspired by the U.S. government’s release of previously classified records related to unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) that sparked congressional hearings and renewed interest in so-called “disclosure.” But to University of Rochester astrophysicist Adam Frank the real question isn't whether the government is hiding secrets. It's what would count as actual evidence of extraterrestrial interaction. “Over the last several years, we’ve had hearings, testimony, and lots of extraordinary claims,” Frank says. “What we haven’t had is the one thing science requires: hard physical evidence.” Frank, an award-winning science communicator, astrophysicist, and leading expert on the search for extraterrestrial life, says the distinction matters. Stories, rumors, and secondhand accounts may generate headlines, but they don't constitute proof. "What true disclosure would mean is simple," Frank says. "It wouldn’t be stories about alien spaceships, but the actual spaceships. Not stories about alien bodies, but actual physical evidence that independent scientists around the world could examine and verify." As media coverage surrounding UFOs, government transparency, and extraterrestrial life intensifies, Frank offers a grounded scientific perspective on what we know, what we don't know, and how science separates possibility from proof. Frank is available to discuss: • The science behind UFO and UAP investigations • What constitutes evidence of extraterrestrial life • Why government disclosures have so far failed to provide proof • The search for life elsewhere in the universe • How Hollywood portrays alien contact versus scientific reality • Why scientists remain open to — but skeptical of — extraordinary claims "The universe is vast, and the possibility of life elsewhere is real," Frank says. "But if we're going to claim aliens have visited Earth, then we need evidence that meets the same standards we would demand for any other scientific discovery." Frank is a frequent on-air commentator for live interviews and segments in national media outlets and the author of The Little Book of Aliens (Harper Collins, 2023). He also regularly contributes to written publications, including Forbes, The Atlantic, The New York Times, and Scientific American. He is a recipient of the Carl Sagan Medal, which recognizes and honors outstanding communication by an active planetary scientist to the general public. Click on Frank's profile to connect with him.