Featured Post from Aston University

UK exports suffered £12.4bn decline in 2021, largely attributed to non-tariff measures – new research

Jun 15, 2022

3 min

Jun Du


  • Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo from Aston University analysed the effects of the end of the Brexit transition period on UK exports
  • This equals to a nearly 16% of UK total exports in the first half of 2019 and 70% of the documented total reduction in the EU exports in the same period
  • The research suggests non-tariff measures (NTMs) are responsible for the fall in trade between the UK and EU.


New research by experts at Aston University for the Enterprise Research Centre (ERC) has found that UK exports experienced a large, negative, statistically significant decline in 2021 at the end of transition after the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) was put in force.


The TCA is a free trade agreement signed on 30 December 2020 between the European Union (EU), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) and the United Kingdom (UK).


Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo used a Synthetic Difference in Differences (SDID) estimator to construct a counterfactual of the UK had it not exited the EU and entered the TCA, to compare its trading performance. This was done by comparing the actual performance of the UK with the modelled performance in 2021 with the same periods of 2018-2020. They also examined the extent to which the overall TCA effect has been due to the increased frictions due to non-tariff measures (NTMs).


They estimate that this amounts to a 22 per cent reduction in exports to the EU and a 26 per cent reduction in imports from the EU over the first half of 2021, relative to the counterfactual scenario of the UK remaining in the EU.


The research confirmed that NTMs are responsible for the adverse TCA effect on UK trade with the EU and that the magnitude of loss was significant. It was equivalent to a reduction of £12.4 billion in UK exports over the first six months period of 2021, notably in food and drink, wood and chemicals sectors. This equals to 15.6% of UK total exports in the first half of 2019, and 70% of the documented total reduction in the EU exports in the same period.


Jun Du, professor of economics at Aston University, lead on internationalisation research at the ERC and director of the Centre for Business Prosperity (CBP), said:


“These results underscore the heavy costs of erecting trade barriers on the UK’s side with its largest trade partner.


“Trade frictions, due to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures (measures to protect humans, animals, and plants from diseases, pests, or contaminants), are acute problems due to the EU exit.


“Reducing some of the NTMs between the EU-UK, by exploring mechanisms such as equivalence in SPS measures or other ways to reduce businesses’ burden to the minimum level possible.


“More complicated and challenging are the technical barriers to trade, but they could potentially cause significant damage to the UK economy. Maintaining and broadening the established arrangements of the current TCA provision, despite being limited, through some form of mutual recognition of specific practices or international regulations for selected sectors, should be the ambition of UK government to ease the TBT (technical barriers to trade).


“Future EU-UK co-operation is critical and mutually beneficial but requires political will and strong leadership.”


Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, a senior lecturer in Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship Department at Aston Business School, co-wrote the working paper and said:


“Continued alignment with the EU regulations was a demand from many businesses throughout the Brexit process, and it is expected to be still important post Brexit. This must be conveyed to policy makers.


“In the short term, preparedness and adaptability have rewarded and will continue to reward businesses facing challenges and disruptions. The need for learning and training remains paramount.


“In the medium and longer term, businesses will have to stay competitive to retain access to the global market, to perform better in it, and to gain more benefit from it. This is the case for all firms even if the ways to achieve it may differ. In addition, businesses need to consider adopting new business models through which they can balance the need for lean production with resilience, as well as weighing up economic, social, and environmental gains. Despite the many considerable challenges, there are boundless avenues where opportunities for breaking through are present.”


You can read the full report on the ERC website here.

Connect with:
Jun Du

Jun Du

Professor of Economics

Professor Du's main research interest is to understand the driving forces and impediments of productivity enhancement and economic growth.

EconomicsTrade
Powered by

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Aston University

3 min

New research partnership to develop biodegradable gloves from food waste for healthcare sector

Knowledge Transfer Partnership between Aston University and PFE Medical to develop a biodegradable clinical glove from food waste The gloves will provide a low-cost, convenient and sustainable alternative to the 1.4bn disposable gloves used in the NHS each year The innovation will reduce clinical waste and costs and help the NHS reach its net zero goals. Aston University and Midlands-based company PFE Medical are teaming up to create biodegradable gloves made from food waste for use in the NHS. They will offer a low-cost, convenient alternative to disposable gloves without compromising patient safety. More than 1.4bn disposable gloves are used by the NHS each year. They create large volumes of clinical waste which has both an environmental and economic cost. The Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) project will develop a more sustainable alternative made from polymers derived from food waste such as orange peel, able to degrade naturally. The gloves will initially be for use during low-risk tasks such as ultrasound scans, rather than in more critical situations such as operating theatres. The gloves would be designed to not only reduce clinical waste and costs in the NHS, but also carbon emissions, helping the NHS reach its goal to be the world’s first net-zero health service. With most personal protective equipment (PPE) currently sourced from Chinese manufacturers, the goal is to develop a biodegradable glove that can be manufactured using a UK supply chain. The challenging project draws on Aston University’s expertise in sustainable polymer chemistry, centred at Aston Institute for Membrane Excellence (AIME). Aston University has one of the largest research groups of polymer chemists in the UK. The project will be led at the University by Professor Paul Topham, director of AIME, and Dr James Wilson, AIME associate member. The research team have chosen to focus on polymers from food waste in order to ensure that the final product can be manufactured sustainably. Most polymers are currently made from petroleum. Polymers made from food waste, ranging from fruit waste to corn or dairy products, have the potential for antioxidant and antibacterial properties if designed appropriately. The team will manipulate the polymer molecules so that they include the right monomers (the smaller units which make up the molecules) in the right location to achieve the properties they require. Critical to the success of the project will be PFE Medical’s commercial and clinical experience of taking new innovations into medical use. It will be the third KTP between Aston University and PFE, following on from successful projects to develop an automated endoscope cleaner, now in use across University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust (UHB). Professor Topham said: “At Aston University, we have a long history of working with industry, of translating fundamental research into solutions for real world problems. This project with PFE Medical provides us with that route, to take our science and engineering and make a difference to peoples’ lives. That’s exactly where, as researchers, we want to be.” Rob Hartley, CEO of PFE Medical, said: “Our previous KTP with Aston University was a phenomenal success, thanks to the brilliant team we had on board. I’m just as excited by this project, which is looking to solve an equally long-standing problem. If we can achieve our goal, then the implications are huge, going far beyond the NHS to all the other situations where people are wearing disposable gloves.” KTPs, funded by Innovate UK, are collaborations between a business, a university and a highly qualified research associate. The UK-wide programme helps businesses to improve their competitiveness and productivity through the better use of knowledge, technology and skills. Aston University is a sector-leading KTP provider, ranked first for project quality, and joint first for the volume of active projects. For further details about this KTP, visit the webpage: www.aston.ac.uk/business/collaborate-with-us/knowledge-transfer-partnership/at-work/pfe-medical.

2 min

Aston University’s Professor Gina Rippon wins British Psychological Society book award for The Lost Girls of Autism

Gina Rippon, professor emeritus of cognitive neuroimaging at Aston University, has won an award for her book, The Lost Girls of Autism The book won the 2025 British Psychological Society Popular Science Award It explores the emerging science of female autism, and examines why it has been systematically ignored and misunderstood for so long. The Lost Girls of Autism, the latest book from Gina Rippon, professor emeritus of cognitive neuroimaging at Aston University Institute of Health and Neurodevelopment (IHN), has won the 2025 British Psychological Society (BPS) Popular Science Award. The annual BPS Book Awards recognise exceptional published works in the field of psychology. There are four categories – popular science, textbook, academic monograph and practitioner text. With the subtitle ‘How Science Failed Autistic Women and the New Research that’s Changing the Story’, The Lost Girls of Autism explores the emerging science of female autism, and examines why it has been systematically ignored and misunderstood for so long. Historically, clinicians believed that autism was a male condition, and simply did not look for it in girls and women. This has meant that autistic girls visiting a doctor have been misdiagnosed with anxiety, depression or personality disorders, or are missed altogether. Many women only discover they have the condition when they are much older. Professor Rippon said: “It's such a pleasure and an honour to receive this award from the BPS. It’s obviously flattering to join the great company of previous winners, but I’m also extremely grateful for the attention drawn to the issues raised in the book. “Over many decades, due to autism’s ‘male spotlight’ problem, autistic girls and women have been overlooked, deprived of the help they needed, and even denied access to the very research studies that could widen our understanding of autism. This book tells the stories of these girls and women, and I’m thrilled to accept this prize on their behalf.”

3 min

New book from Aston University academic shows that Christmas tasks mostly fall on women

New book by Dr Emily Christopher shows differences in how household tasks are divided by men and women Book highlights that women tend to buy the Christmas presents and send cards Men often see women as being more thoughtful or having better knowledge of what people would like. A new book from Aston University’s Dr Emily Christopher reveals that when it comes to sending Christmas cards and buying Christmas presents, women are still mostly doing the work as they are perceived to have better knowledge of what people would like. Dr Emily Christopher, a lecturer in sociology and policy at Aston School of Law and Social Sciences, has recently published her book Couples at Work: Negotiating Paid Employment, Housework and Childcare, which look at how household tasks are divided by men and women and the reasons behind these divisions. The data for the book has been collated over an eight-year period with couples being interviewed twice to provide a robust set of results. It looks at how different sex parent couples combined paid work, housework and childcare. The research revealed how gender norms continue to shape how certain daily household jobs are divided. Women were more likely than men to clean the house, especially bathrooms, wash clothes and put clothes away. Men still tend to do tasks like mowing the lawn and DIY but now are also more likely to do the cooking and the grocery shopping. The research shows that the key to understanding how household tasks are divided lies in the meaning they hold for partners. With the festive season upon us, the book reveals that woman are largely responsible for the Christmas present buying and sending cards with 100% of those taking part in the research saying that women mostly carried out these tasks. This also included buying for the male partner's relatives. In instances where men had a 'helping' role in these tasks, this included being involved in the discussion or consulting on choice of presents, especially for children, with only a small minority buying presents for their own family. The data revealed that where women didn't choose and buy presents for their partners family, they were still involved in reminding their partners that this needed to be done or advising on choice of gifts, showing that women were still taking on the mental load of planning for the festive season. The book reveals that when men were questioned about why they didn't get involved in present buying, they drew on gender norms. Women were often described, by the men, as being more thoughtful or having better knowledge of what people would like. Men often described how family members wouldn’t receive presents at all if it relied on them. Although much of the gift giving and organising represented love and affection for the women, which many found enjoyable, many still saw it as work and expressed that they would like their partners' to be more involved. Dr Christopher said: “This book takes an in-depth look at the way in which everyday roles around the household are divided between men and women. “The research shows that over a period of eight years fathers increased their role in childcare tasks but this did not always extend to housework. “The pandemic was an opportunity to change how couples share housework but women were still more likely to carry out tasks like cleaning, washing clothes and putting clothes away and overwhelmingly remained responsible for the mental orchestration of family work.”

View all posts
Powered by