Featured Post from Aston University

Brexit changes caused 22.9% slump in UK-EU exports into Q1 2022 - research

Dec 8, 2022

3 min

Jun Du


  • Researchers at Aston assessed the impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the EU and the UK
  • UK exports fell by an average of 22.9% in the first 15 months following the deal
  • Variety of UK products exported to EU down by 42%


Research by the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University has shown that UK exports to the EU fell by an average of 22.9% in the first 15 months after the introduction of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, highlighting the continuing challenges that UK firms are facing.


Building on earlier work funded through Aston University’s Enterprise Research Centre, the researchers found that a negative effect on UK exports persisted and deepened from January 2021-March 2022.


According to the research, the UK has also experienced a significant contraction in the variety of goods being exported to the EU, with an estimated loss of 42% of product varieties. The researchers say this, combined with an increased concentration of export values to fewer products, has serious implications for the UK’s future exporting and productivity.


The authors are calling for an urgent national debate from politicians about the UK’s post-Brexit trade arrangements.


The researchers assessed the impact of the TCA, which allows goods to continue to be bought and sold between the UK and EU without tariffs in the wake of Brexit, by creating an ‘alternative UK economy’ model, based on the case that the UK had remained within the European Union. By comparing the model UK’s exports and imports with actual figures for the UK, they could accurately isolate the impact which the new trade rules were having.


“What we are seeing is the effect of Brexit on exports; and that is persisting. It’s not diminishing, and exports have yet to show signs of recovering,” says Professor Jun Du of Aston University. “Until this serious problem with exports is openly acknowledged and discussed, we won’t see any necessary actions being taken.”


Unlike exports, an initially significant drop on EU imports to Britain has recovered during the same period, suggesting that UK businesses and consumers have quickly adjusted to new rules. This stands in contrast to the persistent decline in UK exports, which the researchers believe is caused by more fundamental factors.


Professor Du said:


“It seems that the UK can buy, but it can’t sell – and that’s reinforcing the problem of Brexit. A reduction in import bottlenecks might help exports to rebound, but this recovery is likely to be offset by the rising costs of imports.”


Researchers found that as many as 42% of the product varieties previously exported to the EU have disappeared during the 15 months after January 2021. This, they say, is principally caused by a large number of exporters simply ceasing to export to the EU, while the remaining exporters are streamlining their product ranges.


Co-author, Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, says:


“The product varieties that have disappeared are mostly those with low export value – we know this because the average export value increased as the number of varieties declined. These products are the ones typically exported by small firms or new exporters, or are exported to new markets. And It’s those smaller businesses that would normally export much more in future, as they grow their volumes and products – so that’s the UK’s future export pipeline being affected, which has bleak implications.”


Professor Du says:


“The evidence we present here shows the real loss of Brexit, the overall competitiveness of the UK as a global trader. The considerable contraction of the UK trade capacity, combined with an increased concentration of export values to fewer products, signify some serious long-term concerns about the UK’s future exporting and productivity. Debate is essential so that the UK can start to address its current challenges. Of course, no one is suggesting going back into the EU, but there are collaborations, conversations and discussions that must be had. If the UK’s political leaders don’t acknowledge the facts, they are setting the course towards even longer-term problems.”

Connect with:
Jun Du

Jun Du

Professor of Economics

Professor Du's main research interest is to understand the driving forces and impediments of productivity enhancement and economic growth.

EconomicsTrade

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Aston University

5 min

Aston University and Birmingham Women and Children’s Hospital developing new devices to improve drug treatment safety

The new device is designed to reduce the risk of injuries when medicines being delivered into a vein enter the surrounding tissues It detects this problem at the earliest stages, before it is visible to the human eye The project is being supported by SPARK The Midlands at Aston University, a network to support technology development for unmet clinical needs. Clinicians at Birmingham Women’s and Children's NHS Foundation Trust (BWC) have joined with academics at Aston University to create an innovative sensor to reduce the risk of injuries caused when drugs being delivered into a vein enter the surrounding tissue. This complication, called extravasation, can cause harm and, in the most severe cases, life-changing injuries and permanent scarring. It happens most often when infusing medicines into peripheral intravenous (IV) devices, such as a cannula, but can also occur when infusing into a central venous access device. By joining together, BWC and Aston University are combining clinical, academic and engineering expertise to create a sensor that can detect extravasation at its earliest stages. Karl Emms, lead nurse for patient safety at BWC, said: “We've done lots of work across our Trust that has successfully reduced incidents. While we've made fantastic progress, there is only so much we can do as early signs of extravasation can be difficult to detect with the human eye. “The next step is to develop a technology that can do what people can't - detection as it happens. This will make a huge impact on outcomes as the faster we can detect extravasation, the less likely it is that it will cause serious harm.” The focused work to date addressing the issue has recently been recognised by the Nursing Times Awards 2024, winning the Patient Safety Improvement title for this year. This new project is supported by SPARK The Midlands, a network at Aston University dedicated to providing academic support to advance healthcare research discoveries in the region. SPARK The Midlands is the first UK branch of Stanford University's prestigious global SPARK programme. It comes as a result of Aston University’s active involvement in the delivery of the West Midlands Health Tech Innovation Accelerator (WMHTIA) – a government-funded project aimed at helping companies drive their innovations towards market success. The SPARK scheme helps to provide mentorship and forge networks between researchers, those with technical and specialist knowledge and potential sources of funding. SPARK members have access to workshops led by industry experts, covering topics such as medical device regulations, establishing good clinical trials, and creating an enticing target product profile to engage future funders. Luke Southan, head of research commercialisation at Aston University and SPARK UK director, said: “I was blown away when Karl first brought this idea to me. I knew we had to do everything we could to make this a reality. This project has the potential to transform the standard of care for a genuine clinical need, which is what SPARK is all about.” Work on another potentially transformative project has also begun as the team are working to develop a medical device that detects the position of a nasogastric feeding tube. There is a risk of serious harm and danger to life if nasogastric tubes move into the lungs, rather than the stomach, and feed is passed through them. Emms explained: “pH test strips can usually detect nasogastric tube misplacement, but some children undergoing treatment can have altered pH levels in the stomach. This means this test sometimes does not work. “A medical device that can detect misplacement can potentially stop harm and fatalities caused by these incidents.” SPARK will bring together engineers, academics and clinicians for both projects to develop the devices for clinical trial, with a goal of the technologies being ready for clinical use in three to five years. Southan said: “BWC is one of our first partners at SPARK and we're really excited to work with them to make a vital impact on paediatric healthcare in the Midlands and beyond." Notes to editors About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming the Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Helen Tunnicliffe, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7827 090240 or email: h.tunnicliffe@aston.ac.uk About Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust (BWC) brings together the very best in paediatric and women’s care in the region and is proud to have many UK and world-leading surgeons, doctors, nurses, midwives and other allied healthcare professionals on its team. Birmingham Children’s Hospital is the UK’s leading specialist paediatric centre, caring for sick children and young people between 0 and 16 years of age. Based in the heart of Birmingham city centre, the hospital is a world leader in some of the most advanced treatments, complex surgical procedures and cutting-edge research and development. It is a nationally designated specialist centre for epilepsy surgery and also boasts a paediatric major trauma centre for the West Midlands, a national liver and small bowel transplant centre and a centre of excellence for complex heart conditions, the treatment of burns, cancer and liver and kidney disease. The hospital is also home to one of the largest Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in the country, comprising of a dedicated inpatient Eating Disorder Unit and Acute Assessment Unit for regional referrals of children and young people with the most serious of problems (Tier 4) and Forward Thinking Birmingham community mental health service for 0- to 25-year-olds. Birmingham Women’s Hospital is a centre of excellence, providing a range of specialist health care services to over 50,000 women and their families every year from Birmingham, the West Midlands and beyond. As well as delivering more than 8,200 babies a year, it offers a full range of gynaecological, maternity and neonatal care, as well as a comprehensive genetics service, which serves men and women. Its Fertility Centre is one of the best in the country, while the fetal medicine centre receives regional and national referrals. The hospital is also an international centre for education, research and development with a research budget of over £3 million per year. It also hosts the national miscarriage research centre – the first of its kind in the UK - in partnership with Tommy’s baby charity. For interview requests please email the Communications Team on bwc.communications@nhs.net

3 min

Aston University researcher develops new optical technique that could revolutionise medical diagnostics

New light technique could revolutionise non-invasive medical diagnostics Orbital Angular Momentum could be harnessed to improve imaging and data transmission through biological tissues Could eventually have potential to make procedures such as surgery or biopsies unnecessary. An Aston University researcher has developed a new technique using light which could revolutionise non-invasive medical diagnostics and optical communication. The research showcases how a type of light called the Orbital Angular Momentum (OAM) can be harnessed to improve imaging and data transmission through skin and other biological tissues. A team led by Professor Igor Meglinski found that OAM light has unmatched sensitivity and accuracy that could result in making procedures such as surgery or biopsies unnecessary. In addition it could enable doctors to track the progression of diseases and plan appropriate treatment options. OAM is defined as a type of structured light beams, which are light fields which have a tailored spatial structure. Often referred to as vortex beams, they have previously been applied to a number of developments in different applications including astronomy, microscopy, imaging, metrology, sensing, and optical communications. Professor Meglinski in collaboration with researchers from the University of Oulu, Finland conducted the research which is detailed in the paper “Phase preservation of orbital angular momentum of light in multiple scattering environment” which is published in the Nature journal Light Science & Application. The paper has since been named as one of the year’s most exciting pieces of research by international optics and photonics membership organisation, Optica. The study reveals that OAM retains its phase characteristics even when passing through highly scattering media, unlike regular light signals. This means it can detect extremely small changes with an accuracy of up to 0.000001 on the refractive index, far surpassing the capabilities of many current diagnostic technologies. Professor Meglinski who is based at Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies said: “By showing that OAM light can travel through turbid or cloudy and scattering media, the study opens up new possibilities for advanced biomedical applications. “For example, this technology could lead to more accurate and non-invasive ways to monitor blood glucose levels, providing an easier and less painful method for people with diabetes.” The research team conducted a series of controlled experiments, transmitting OAM beams through media with varying levels of turbidity and refractive indices. They used advanced detection techniques, including interferometry and digital holography, to capture and analyse the light's behaviour. They found that the consistency between experimental results and theoretical models highlighted the ability of the OAM-based approach. The researchers believe that their study’s findings pave the way for a range of transformative applications. By adjusting the initial phase of OAM light, they believe that revolutionary advancements in fields such as secure optical communication systems and advanced biomedical imaging will be possible in the future. Professor Meglinski added: "The potential for precise, non-invasive transcutaneous glucose monitoring represents a significant leap forward in medical diagnostics. “My team’s methodological framework and experimental validations provide a comprehensive understanding of how OAM light interacts with complex scattering environments, reinforcing its potential as a versatile technology for future optical sensing and imaging challenges.” ENDS https://www.nature.com/articles/s41377-024-01562-7 Light: Science & Applications volume 13, Article number: 214 (2024) August 2024 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41377-024-01562-7 Authors: Igor Meglinski, Ivan Lopushenko, Anton Sdobnov & Alexander Bykov About Aston University For over a century, Aston University’s enduring purpose has been to make our world a better place through education, research and innovation, by enabling our students to succeed in work and life, and by supporting our communities to thrive economically, socially and culturally. Aston University’s history has been intertwined with the history of Birmingham, a remarkable city that once was the heartland of the Industrial Revolution and the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Born out of the First Industrial Revolution, Aston University has a proud and distinct heritage dating back to our formation as the School of Metallurgy in 1875, the first UK College of Technology in 1951, gaining university status by Royal Charter in 1966, and becoming The Guardian University of the Year in 2020. Building on our outstanding past, we are now defining our place and role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (and beyond) within a rapidly changing world. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

2 min

Aston University researchers to explore using AI and fibre-optic networks to monitor natural hazards and infrastructures

Aston University is leading a new £5.5 million EU research project Will focus on converting fibre-optic cables into sensors to detect natural hazards Could identify earthquakes and tsunamis and assess civil infrastructure. Aston University is leading a new £5.5 million EU research project to explore converting existing telecommunication fibre-optic cables into sensors which can detect natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, and assess the condition of civil infrastructure. The project is called ECSTATIC (Engineering Combined Sensing and Telecommunications Architectures for Tectonic and Infrastructure Characterisation) and is part of the Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Action (RIA), which aims to tackle global challenges and boost the continent’s industrial competitiveness. Converting telecom fibres into sensors requires new digital signal processing to overcome the limited data storage and processing capabilities of existing communication networks. To address this the project will use localised, high performance digital processing that will integrate artificial intelligence and machine learning. The researchers’ goal is to minimise algorithms’ complexity while providing extremely accurate real-time sensing of events and network condition. The new laser interrogation and signal processing technologies will be tested using existing fibre optic networks, including those underwater, in cities, and along railway infrastructure to assess their potential. Delivered by a consortium of 14 partners across seven countries, from academic and non-academic sectors, the research will start in February 2025 and will last three and a half years. The Europe-wide team will be led by Professor David Webb who is based in the Aston Institute of Photonic Technologies (AIPT). Professor Webb said: “There are more than five billion kilometres of installed data communications optical fibre cable, which provides an opportunity to create a globe-spanning network of fibre sensors, without laying any new fibres. “These traverse the seas and oceans - where conventional sensors are practically non-existent - and major infrastructures, offering the potential for smart structural health monitoring.” Professor Webb will be joined by fellow researchers Professor Sergei Turitsyn, Dr Haris Alexakis and Dr Pedro Freire. For media inquiries in relation to this release, contact Nicola Jones, Press and Communications Manager, on (+44) 7825 342091 or email: n.jones6@aston.ac.uk

View all posts
Powered by