Veterinary deal would increase UK agrifood exports to EU by more than a fifth, research shows

Apr 26, 2024

4 min

Jun DuDr Oleksandr Shepotylo


  • A veterinary deal would increase agri-food exports from the UK to the EU by at least 22.5%, say researchers
  • Agri-food exports overall are worth £25 billion to the UK economy, but the two years since the new trading rules were put in place have seen a fall of 5% in exports to the EU from 2019 levels, during a period where the sector has otherwise grown.
  • Team from Aston University and University of Bristol have analysed trade deals and export figures worldwide to estimate impact of a new veterinary deal on UK–EU exports


A veterinary deal with the European Union could increase UK agricultural and food exports by over a fifth, according to new research.


The team, from Aston University’s Centre for Business Prosperity and the University of Bristol, analysed the agricultural and veterinary aspects of trade deals around the world to estimate their impact on exports. They then modelled the potential impact of different types of agreement on UK exports to the EU.


Veterinary Agreements specifically focus on regulations and standards related to animal health and welfare, as well as to the safety of animal-derived products such as meat, dairy, and seafood. They aim to align, harmonise, or recognise veterinary requirements and certifications, and reduce the number of inspections between countries to facilitate the safe and efficient trade of live animals and animal products.


The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), implemented in January 2021, eliminates tariffs and quotas but does not remove non-tariff barriers to trade. These can be particularly burdensome for agricultural and animal-derived food (agri-food) exports, involving complex rules and requirements, production of extensive documentation and veterinary checks.


The UK agri-food sector is a cornerstone of the UK economy, with exports worth £25 billion and employing 4.2million people. Although the sector is growing overall, exports to the EU shrank in 2022 by 5% compared to 2019, in part due to the new trade arrangements. This has led to calls for an EU–UK veterinary agreement from business and agri-food organisations, including the Confederation of British Industry, British Chambers of Commerce, UK Food and Drink Federation, Chartered Institute of Environmental Health and British Veterinary Association.


Analysing data from the World Bank on 279 trade agreements and export statistics from over 200 countries, the researchers found that shallow agreements, that went little further than provisions already covered by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, had significant negative impacts on agri-food exports.


However, where trade agreements went beyond WTO provisions to include more commitments on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures (which aim to protect countries against risks relating to pests, diseases and food safety) and were legally enforceable, they had a robust, positive impact on exports, particularly exports of animal products and food.


Applying this to the UK–EU relationship, the team estimate that a veterinary agreement that went beyond the existing TCA provisions would increase agri-food exports from the UK to the EU by at least 22.5%. Imports from the EU would also increase by 5.6%.


In the 203 countries studied for the research, positive effects of deep trade deals that included provisions on agriculture took between 10 and 15 years to manifest. But the UK might not have to wait so long, according to report co-author Professor Jun Du, Director of Aston University’s Centre for Business Prosperity.


“There is no blueprint out there that mirrors the UK–EU relationship. Most veterinary agreements are agreed as part of a trade deal between countries that haven’t previously had close alignment and it takes a while for the benefits to take effect.


“Until recently, the UK had frictionless agri-food exports to the EU, so it’s possible that a supplementary veterinary agreement to reduce some of the frictions created by Brexit could allow trade that previously existed to pick up again quite quickly.”


However clear the economic arguments, the legal and political barriers to a veterinary agreement still remain. The researchers address these in their report, suggesting that the best format for the additional measures would be as a supplementary agreement to the TCA. The key question for the UK government in negotiating such an agreement would be what the EU demanded in return.


“The closest model is the EU-Swiss relationship, which sees Switzerland largely follow EU law,” said report co-author from the University of Bristol, Dr Greg Messenger. “That’s unlikely to be an option for the UK. As we wouldn’t expect to eliminate all paperwork, we could both agree that our rules meet each other’s standard for phytosanitary protection. As most of our rules are still essentially the same as the EU, that wouldn’t require any major change, though we’d have to agree a greater level of coordination in relation to the development of new rules.”


The report was written jointly by Professor Du, Dr Messenger and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, senior lecturer in economics, finance and entrepreneurship at the Centre for Business Prosperity, Aston Business School.

Connect with:
Jun Du

Jun Du

Professor of Economics

Professor Du's main research interest is to understand the driving forces and impediments of productivity enhancement and economic growth.

EconomicsTrade
Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo

Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo

Senior Lecturer, Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship

Dr Shepotylo seeks to answer the question of how do firms, industries, and countries grow by integrating into global markets.

Spatial EconomicsProductivityInternational TradeHB Economic TheoryTrade Policy

You might also like...

Check out some other posts from Aston University

3 min

Aston University research: Parents should encourage structure and independence around food to support children’s healthy eating

Dr Katie Edwards studied the feeding practices of parents of children with ‘avid’ eating traits, which can lead to obesity Focusing on health or deciding when it is time for a meal or snack helps parents to use supportive feeding practices. Supportive feeding practices could include involving children in decisions about food, or sitting together for mealtimes New research from Aston University has shone a light on the best ways for parents to encourage healthy eating in their children. The team of academics from Aston University’s School of Psychology, led by Professor Jacqueline Blissett, with Dr Katie Edwards as the lead researcher, looked at the meal- and snack-time practices of parents of children with ‘avid’ eating behaviours. ‘Avid’ eaters, who make up around 20% of children, particularly love food, are often hungry and will eat in response to food cues in the environment and their emotions, not just when they are hungry. They are the most susceptible to obesity and therefore encouraging a healthy, balanced diet is vital. Feeding children with avid eating behaviours can be challenging and the researchers wanted to understand how factors in everyday life, such as parent mood or eating situations, influence the feeding practices that parents use. Understanding this can help to create better support for families around meal and snack times and reduce the risk of children developing obesity. Dr Edwards says that the research shows that when parents prioritise children’s health or decide when it is time for a meal or snack, parents are more likely to use supportive feeding practices which create structure around meal or snack times or encourage children to be independent with their food choices. For example, parents could sit and eat with their children, choose what food is available for their children, or involve children in decisions about what food to eat. She adds that there are three main things that parents can do to help encourage healthy eating behaviour. The first is to focus on health, by providing nutritious and balanced meals. The second is to ensure a calm and positive atmosphere during eating occasions. The final recommendation is that parents should take the lead on setting meal- and snack-times, with a good structure being three meals and two snacks a day. These recommendations are linked to parents’ use of supportive feeding practices which are known to encourage children’s healthy eating. To carry out the research, the team recruited parents of children aged 3-5 with avid eating behaviour and asked them to download an app to their smartphones. The app sent four semi-random reminders per day for a 10-day period, asking them to complete a survey with information about mood and stress levels. Every time a child had a meal or a snack, or asked for food, parents completed another survey to give information about feeding practices (including those which give children structure, or independence, around food), mealtime goals (such as prioritising healthy eating), and information about the mealtime setting (such as the atmosphere). Previous research from this team at Aston University identified four main eating traits in children. As well as ‘avid’, the other traits, not studied here, are ‘typical’ eaters, who have no extreme behaviours, ‘avoidant’ eaters, who are extremely fussy, and ‘emotional’ eaters, who eat in response to emotions but do not necessarily enjoy food in the way that avid eaters do. Dr Edwards was also involved in the team’s research at Aston University that showed that parents’ eating behaviour influences that of their children. Dr Edwards said: “Given the challenges that parents may face and the risk of childhood obesity, we will use these findings to develop feeding support for families. Encouraging parents to use feeding practices which provide structure around meal and snack times, or promote children’s independence with food, could be helpful for supporting children’s healthy eating. Read the full paper in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity at https://doi.org/10.1186/s12966-025-01768-x.

3 min

Aston University optometrist develops app with the best easy blinking exercises to improve dry eye symptoms

Dry eye disease is a common condition affecting one-third of the adult population and one-in-five children Professor James Wolffsohn researched the most effective blinking exercises to reduce discomfort, involving a close-squeeze-blink cycle He developed the MyDryEye app in collaboration with Alec Kingsnorth and Mark Nattriss to help sufferers An Aston University optometrist, Professor James Wolffsohn, has determined an optimum blinking exercise routine for people suffering with dry eye disease, and has developed a new app, MyDryEye, to help them complete the routine to ease their symptoms. Dry eye disease is a common condition which affects one-third of the adult population and one-in-five children, in which the eyes either do not make enough tears, or produce only poor-quality tears. It causes the eyes to become uncomfortable, with gritty- or itchy-feeling eyes, watery eyes and short-term blurred vision. It is more common in older adults and can be exacerbated by factors including dry air caused by air conditioning, dust, windy conditions, screen use and incomplete blinks, where the eye does not fully close. Professor Wolffsohn is head of Aston University’s School of Optometry and a specialist in dry eye disease. While it has long been known that blinking exercises can ease the symptoms of dry eye disease, the optimum technique, number of repetitions and necessary repeats per day are unclear. Professor Wolffsohn set out to determine the best exercises. His team found that the best technique for a dry eye blinking exercise is a close-squeeze-blink cycle, repeated 15 times, three times per day. Participants found that while they were doing their exercises symptom severity and frequency decreased, and the number of incomplete blinks decreased. Within two weeks of stopping the exercises, their symptoms returned to normal levels, showing the efficacy of the exercises. To carry out the work, Professor Wolffsohn’s team ran two studies. For the first, they recruited 98 participants, who were assessed for dry eye symptoms before and after the two weeks of blinking exercises. Participants were randomly allocated different blinking exercises to determine the most effective. A second study with 28 people measured the efficacy of the blinking exercise. Once the optimum blinking routine had been developed, Professor Wolffsohn worked withAlec Kingsnorth, an engineer and former Aston undergraduate and PhD student, and Mark Nattriss, business manager of his spin-out company, Wolffsohn Research Ltd, to develop the app, MyDryEye, which is freely available on Android and iOS operating systems. The app allows users to monitor their dry eye symptoms, assess their risk factors, add treatment reminders and monitor their compliance, complete the science-based blink exercises and find a specialist near them. Professor Wolffsohn says that the blinking exercises should be carried out as part of a treatment programme which could also include the use of lipid-based artificial tears, omega-3 supplements and warm compresses. Professor Wolffsohn said: “This research confirmed that blink exercises can be a way of overcoming the bad habit of only partially closing our eyes during a blink, that we develop when using digital devices. The research demonstrated that the most effective way to do the exercises is three times a day, 15 repeats of close, squeeze shut and reopen – just three minutes in total out of your busy lifestyle. To make it easier, we have made our MyDryEye app freely available on iOS and Android so you can choose when you want to be reminded to do the exercises and for this to map your progress and how it affects your symptoms.” Read the full paper, ‘Optimisation of Blinking Exercises for Dry Eye Disease’, in Contact Lens and Anterior Eye at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clae.2025.102453.

2 min

Aston University researchers to take the first steps to find out if AI can help policymakers make urban mobility more sustainable

Researchers to explore how AI can help urban mobility planners They are to investigate AI-driven policy tools’ potential to create greener cities Project to benefit from expertise of five European universities. A European group of researchers led by Aston University is taking the first steps to explore how AI can help urban mobility planners. As city populations grow causing strain on resources, the experts are to investigate AI-driven policy tools’ potential to create greener cities. The team have received £10,000 in funding from the British Academy which they hope will set them on the road to further research. Taking part in the project will be experts from University College London, Ruralis University in Norway, the University of Turin, Italy and Lisbon University Institute, Portugal. Dr Dalila Ribaudo from the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston Business School and Dr Alina Patelli from the Aston Centre for Artificial Intelligence Research and Application will co-lead a UK-EU consortium consolidation project. The interdisciplinary project will benefit from expertise in applied business and specialist insight into global economics, policymaking and urban transport planning. Dr Patelli said “Policymakers and society could all benefit from our research into innovative ways of managing the strain on urban infrastructures and resources. "The AI-powered policy tools we are developing are meant to support decision managers at all levels of urban governance with reducing emissions, optimising transportation as well as predicting and preventing environmental hazards. Such changes would improve the quality of life for the millions of people living in towns and cities across the UK, Europe and, in the long term, the entire world.” Following the successful bid for the British Academy pump priming grant the team will apply for Horizon Europe funding to continue developing impactful AI-driven policy tools for greener cities.

View all posts