Jeff Haymond, Ph.D.

From the Pump to the Bond Market: Why Rising Oil Prices Matter for Borrowing Costs Rising oil prices are often felt first at the gas pump, but their effects can quickly extend to the broader economy. As higher costs for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel work their way through transportation, manufacturing and food production, investors are increasingly concerned that inflation could remain elevated longer than expected. That concern is helping push Treasury yields higher. When investors expect inflation to erode the future value of fixed-income returns, they typically demand higher yields on government bonds. The result can be a ripple effect across the economy: mortgage rates, auto loans, credit-card rates and business borrowing costs may all remain high or move higher. This is an important second stage of the oil-price story. The first concern is the direct impact on consumers and businesses as energy costs rise. The next concern is whether those higher costs become embedded in the economy, causing inflation expectations to increase and making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates. For policymakers, the dilemma is clear. Raising or maintaining higher interest rates can help slow inflation, but it also makes borrowing more expensive for families, businesses and the federal government. If high energy prices persist, the Federal Reserve may face added pressure to prioritize inflation control even as consumers and employers feel the effects of tighter financial conditions. The issue is also global. Oil markets respond quickly to geopolitical instability and supply disruptions, while Treasury yields influence borrowing and investment decisions far beyond the United States. Together, high energy prices and rising yields can become a powerful test of economic resilience—affecting household budgets today and financial decisions for months to come. 

Interest rates in the United States remain elevated, with the Federal Reserve holding its benchmark rate near its highest level in more than two decades as of late summer 2026. The Fed’s stance reflects its effort to fully tame inflation, which has cooled significantly from its 2022 peak but still shows pockets of persistence in areas like housing and services. Higher borrowing costs continue to ripple through the economy: mortgages remain expensive, business loans are harder to justify, and consumers face steeper rates on credit cards and auto financing. The broader economy is feeling the strain. Growth has slowed as companies delay expansion, hiring becomes more cautious, and households pull back on discretionary spending. At the same time, elevated rates have strengthened the dollar and helped stabilize inflation expectations, giving policymakers confidence that price pressures are gradually easing. The result is a mixed landscape — one where the labor market is steady but no longer surging, investment is cooling, and many sectors are waiting for clearer signals about when rate cuts might begin. 

President-elect Donald Trump campaigns were filled with promises of economic reform including strict import tariffs, strict immigration curbs, and deregulation. However, reports reveal the current economic state of the US may not be needing the president's aggressive reform. Trends reflect a strong economy with low unemployment rate; prompting concerns that Trumps policies could disrupt the economic growth. Trump will be taking office next week with a much different economic circumstances compared to his first term in 2017. Does the economic changes since Trump's first term make his reforms obsolete or even dangerous? Economics expert, Dr. Jared Pincin weighs in on the discussion of the economy during the Biden administration in a recent interview. There has been an increase of individuals getting second jobs or "side hustles" especially in the Gen Z generation. As the need for an extra income source increased the unemployment rate has decreased. Are the lowered unemployment rates just a reflection of an economy that won't allow citizens to live on one paycheck? Although the economy that Trump will be inheriting show positive changes since his first term in 2017, there are concerns that can not be ignored. Trumps expansionary policies can incite inflation if the economy is not calling for his aggressive reforms. How will Trump's administration reap the benefits of the Biden administration while preventing an economic crisis? The economy appears to be performing well, especially over the past year. These reports come in during Trump's promises of reform. Are these reforms going to strengthen the economy or are they proof of Trumps disconnect with the current economic health? If you are covering the the U.S. economy during the Trump administration and need to know more, let us help with your questions and stories. Dr. Jared Pincin is an expert on economics and is available to speak to media regarding the Trump administration and the economy – simply click on his icon or email mweinstein@cedarville.edu to arrange an interview. Jeff Haymond, Ph.D. is Dean, Robert W. Plaster School of Business Administration and a Professor of Economics at Cedarville and is an expert in finance and trade. Dr. Haymond is available to speak with media regarding this topic – simply click on his icon to arrange an interview.