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U.S. economy to remain strong through most of 2019, with output averaging 3 percent
Higher than expected economic growth in 2018 should continue into next year, with U.S. output averaging 3 percent and continued strong gains in domestic job growth. Indiana will continue to outperform the nation, with output growing at a rate of 3.2 percent, according to a forecast presented today by Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. A year ago, members of Kelley's Indiana Business Outlook Tour panel predicted that U.S. gross domestic product would grow by 2.6 percent this year and about 3 percent if tax reform were enacted. Indiana was forecast to see growth of 2.8 percent. Friday's release of GDP data for the third quarter supports their view that 2018 should end up with output growth above those levels. "The tax cut has produced an acceleration in the U.S. economy during 2018 to well above the new normal status quo of 2 percent growth," said Bill Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics at IU. "We expect output growth in 2019 to average 3 percent, but with deceleration as the year proceeds. By this time next year, quarterly growth will be heading toward equilibrium growth at a little below 2.5 percent." The story in Indiana and the greater Indianapolis area is very similar. "The state economy appears poised to see its strongest growth in the first quarter of 2019, after which growth rates are expected to slow but remain strong through the end of the year," said Ryan Brewer, associate professor of finance at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus and author of the panel's Indiana forecast. "It is most likely Indiana will continue to experience growth across the board -- in jobs, numbers of establishments, income levels, wages as well as gross state product." The Kelley School released its forecast this morning at the Indianapolis Artsgarden and will present it again at 11 a.m. today in Bloomington. The Business Outlook Tour panel also will present national, state and local economic forecasts in eight other cities across the state through Nov. 28. The national labor market has exceeded expectations for two years now. A year ago, the panel felt the U.S. economy would create jobs at a monthly rate of about 175,000 and that the unemployment rate would fall to 4 percent. Instead, monthly job creation through September has averaged nearly 200,000, and the jobless rate has fallen to 3.7 percent. These job creation trends are expected to continue into 2019, with average monthly job gains of 200,000, and the participation rate -- which measures the percentage of the U.S. population that was employed or looking for a job -- remaining flat. "The labor market will be increasingly tight," Witte said. "The unemployment rate could decline a little, but firms unable to find workers will remain an important theme." Risks to the forecast include the effects of political uncertainty, further trade disputes and economic concerns being felt in other parts of the world, including China and Europe. The panel also expressed reservations about the impact of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. They expect the federal funds rate to rise above 3 percent by the end of 2019. Kyle Anderson, clinical assistant professor of business economics and author of the forecast for an 11-county area that includes Indianapolis, Carmel and Anderson, said the region is at full employment, and continued job growth will ensure it stays there. Economic growth in the area will average about 2.5 percent. "Communities around Central Indiana are finding it necessary and important to invest in projects that improve quality of life and provide amenities for residents," Anderson said, referring to examples of this in downtown areas of Indianapolis and Speedway and in Carmel. "The message to community leaders is clear: Investing in infrastructure to improve quality of life is necessary to maintain a healthy local economy. "Tax incentives are not sufficient to draw in businesses and residents. Bike trails, community centers and connected neighborhoods were once seen as luxuries, but now are important economic development tools," he added. "This trend will continue, especially if the economic expansion continues nationally." Other highlights from today's forecast: · Consumer spending will continue to grow, although at a rate less than in 2018. · Business investment will be good, but held back by trade concerns. · Housing will resume growth with a small boost from the aftermath of hurricanes Florence and Michael. Elsewhere, including in Central Indiana, 30-year mortgage rates, nearly a full point higher than a year ago, could dampen enthusiasm for new housing and constrain prices. · Government spending will be strong early in the year, but growth could slow significantly toward year end. · The trade balance will show increasing deficits. A detailed report on the outlook for 2018 will be published in the winter issue of the Indiana Business Review, available online in December. For more assistance, contact George Vlahakis, associate director of communications and media relations at the IU Kelley School of Business, 812-855-0846 (o) or 812-345-1500 (m), vlahakis@iu.edu.
Environmental scientists have identified 22 key research questions surrounding the risks associated with chemicals in the environment in Europe. Chemicals released into the environment by human activity are resulting in biodiversity loss; increased natural hazards; threats to food, water and energy security; negative impacts on human health and degradation of environmental quality. Now an international study, coordinated by scientists from the University of York, Wageningen University and Baylor University, has identified the most important research questions that need to be answered to fill the most pressing knowledge gaps over the next decade. They include questions about which chemicals we should be most concerned about and where the hotspots of key contaminants are around the globe, as well as how we can develop methods to protect biodiversity and ecosystems. The research, which resulted from a recent "big questions" exercise involving researchers from across Europe, aims to serve as a roadmap for policymakers, regulators, industry and funders and result in a more coordinated approach from the European environmental science community to chemicals in the environment. “Our research has highlighted international scientists' research priorities and our key knowledge gaps when it comes to the risks and impacts of chemicals,” said one of the lead authors of the study Alistair Boxall, Ph.D., with the University of York’s environment department. “The study aims to help focus scientific effort on the questions that really matter and inform decisions about the type of research needed to update policies and regulations.” Bryan W. Brooks, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor of Environmental Science and Biomedical Studies at Baylor University, who also coordinates a much larger global horizon scanning exercise, said the project is “intentionally transparent, inclusive of multiple sectors and multidisciplinary.” “Though this paper focuses on critical research needs for Europe, we partnered with the Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry to perform similar studies in North America, Africa, Asia, Australia and Latin America,” Brooks said. “In fact, output from the Latin American study was recently published. This unprecedented exercise, which also includes a key partnership with the American Chemical Society in North America, is for the first time identifying global research priorities from academic, government and industry scientists and engineers to understand, avoid and manage adverse outcomes of chemicals in the environment.” A key suggestion in the report is that the basic and translational research is needed to advance robust assessments of chemical risks to the environment and human health. “These big research questions aim to reduce uncertainty during scientific evaluations of environmental contaminants and to advance innovation and sustainability through development of less hazardous chemicals to public health and the environment. Such research recommendations from our European colleagues are thus timely, necessary and internationally important if we are to achieve the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals,” Brooks said. Towards Sustainable Environmental Quality: Priority Research Questions for Europe is published in the journal Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. It is one of six papers in a global horizon scanning study. ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 17,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through the efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 80 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions. ABOUT BAYLOR COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s oldest and largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and seven academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines.
Seeing the light of neutron star collisions
UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — When two neutron stars collided on Aug. 17, a widespread search for electromagnetic radiation from the event led to observations of light from the afterglow of the explosion, finally connecting a gravitational-wave-producing event with conventional astronomy using light, according to an international team of astronomers. Previous gravitational-wave detections by LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory) and Virgo, a European observatory based in Pisa, Italy, were caused by collisions of two black holes. Black hole collisions generally are not expected to result in electromagnetic emissions and none were detected. "A complete picture of compact object mergers, however, requires the detection of an electromagnetic counterpart," the researchers report online today (Oct. 16) in Science. The Aug.17 detection of a gravitational wave from the collision of two neutron stars by gravitational wave observatories in the U.S. and Europe initiated a rapid cascade of observations by a variety of orbiting and ground-based telescopes in search of an electromagnetic counterpart. Two seconds after detection of the gravitational wave, the Gamma Ray Burst monitor on NASA's Fermi spacecraft detected a short gamma ray burst in the area of the gravitational wave's origin. While the Swift Gamma Ray Burst Explorer — a NASA satellite in low Earth orbit containing three instruments: the Burst Alert Telescope, the X-ray Telescope and the Ultraviolet/Optical Telescope — can view one-sixth of the sky at a time, it did not see the gamma ray burst because that portion of the sky was not then visible to Swift. Penn State is in charge of the Mission Operations Center for Swift. The satellite orbits the Earth every 96 minutes and can maneuver to observe a target in as little as 90 seconds. Once the Swift team knew the appropriate area to search, it put the satellite's instruments into action. Swift is especially valuable in this type of event because it can reposition to a target very quickly. In this case, the telescope was retargeted approximately 16 minutes after being notified by LIGO/Virgo, and began to search for an electromagnetic counterpart. Read more about Swift's involvement in detecting the neutron star collision here: https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/ps-stl101617.php To speak with Penn State's Swift researchers, contact Joslyn Neiderer at jms1140@psu.edu. Source:
